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91.
Josef G. Steinebach Hella Timmermann 《Journal of statistical planning and inference》2011,141(8):2682-2699
In this paper, some sequential monitoring procedures are constructed and analyzed for detecting a “gradual” change in the drift parameter of a general stochastic process satisfying a certain (weak) invariance principle. It is shown that the tests can be constructed such that the “false alarm rate” attains a prescribed level (say) α and that the tests have “asymptotic power 1”. A more precise analysis of the procedures under the alternative proves that the stopping times, suitably normalized, have a standard normal limiting distribution. A few results from a small simulation study are also presented in order to give an idea of the finite sample behaviour of the suggested procedures. 相似文献
92.
The Effect of Remittances on Economic Growth in Kyrgyzstan and Macedonia: Accounting for Financial Development 下载免费PDF全文
Ronald Ravinesh Kumar Peter Josef Stauvermann Arvind Patel Selvin Prasad 《International migration (Geneva, Switzerland)》2018,56(1):95-126
Kyrgyzstan and Macedonia have experienced a reasonable increase in remittances over the last twenty‐five years. Subsequently, the extent to which remittances can be instrumental for economic development of the two countries has gained serious attention in recent development dialogues. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of remittances versus financial development on the economic growth of the two counties, complementing the burgeoning interest and focus on remittances for policy. The short‐run and the long‐run effects and the causality dynamics of remittances and financial development, are explored. The results show a long‐run positive impact of remittances on the economic growth of these countries. The impact of financial development is negative, significant only for Kyrgyzstan and not statistically significant for Macedonia. The causality results show that remittances support economic growth for Kyrgyzstan, whereas economic growth appears to propel remittances for Macedonia. 相似文献
93.
Rafael Lalive Jan C. van Ours Josef Zweimüller 《Journal of the European Economic Association》2005,3(6):1386-1417
This paper investigates the effectiveness of unemployment benefit sanctions in reducing unemployment duration. Swiss data on benefit sanctions allow us to separate the effect of a warning that a person is not complying with eligibility requirements from the effect of the actual enforcement of a benefit sanction. Moreover, public employment services are given substantial leeway in setting the monitoring intensity. Results indicate that both warning and enforcement have a positive effect on the exit rate out of unemployment, and that increasing the monitoring intensity reduces the duration of unemployment of the nonsanctioned. (JEL: J64, J65, J68) 相似文献
94.
Summary The last censuses in Germany were accomplished in 1987 (former federal states) and 1981 (new federal states), respectively.
Germany was the only country which did not participate in the EU-wide census in 2000. A traditional census was not feasible
on political scale due to high costs and low acceptance by the population. Complete, precise and actual statistical registers
as a condition for a register based census, are non-existent in Germany. Official statisticians developed a model for a register
based census with interviewer-based surveys kept to a minimum. As the basic conditions were not favourable the model became
very complex and many methods and procedures had to be developed for the special case of German registers. Core model elements
were tested in a census test, such as quality of registers (e. g. municipal population registers, registers of the federal
labour agency) and practicability of procedures (e. g. merging of registers, household generation). The test result was that
a register based census is possible but much development work still has to be done, as the registers do not have an acceptable
quality yet. Additional interviewer based surveys will be necessary for correction of errors of the register and survey of
additional variables. This is also true if measures to improve municipal population registers, e. g. a feedback procedure
and a nationwide tax number are taken into account. So these measures will not substitute the additional interviewer based
surveys. Provided that the essential investments in development and preparation will be performed, Germany could participate
in the 2011 EU-census-round with a register based census at a fraction of the cost of a traditional census. Finally, the census
2011 will show the real quality of the registers, how the model will work throughout the country and which measures have to
be taken before the following census.
Zusammenfassung In Deutschland wurde die letzte Volksz?hlung 1987 (Alte Bundesl?nder) bzw. 1981 (Neue Bundesl?nder) durchgeführt. An dem EU-weiten Zensus um das Jahr 2000 beteiligte sich Deutschland als einziger EU-Staat nicht, da ein herk?mmlicher Zensus aus Kosten- und Akzeptanzgründen politisch nicht durchsetzbar war. Die Voraussetzungen für einen Registerzensus, d. h. Statistikregister, die alle ben?tigten Merkmale mit hinreichender Genauigkeit und Aktualit?t enthalten, waren und sind nicht vorhanden. Amtliche Statistiker entwickelten ein Modell für einen registergestützten Zensus mit einem m?glichst geringen Anteil an prim?rstatistischen Erhebungen. Aufgrund der für einen Zensus auf Basis von Registern ungünstigen Rahmenbedingungen wurde dieses Modell relativ komplex und in vielen Bereichen statistisches Neuland betreten. Wesentliche Elemente des Modells wurden in einem sog. Zensustest überprüft. Getestet wurden insbesondere die Qualit?t und Aktualit?t vorhandener Register, wie Melderegister und Dateien der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, sowie die Eignung und Wirksamkeit der Verfahren, wie Zusammenführungen der Daten aus verschiedenen Quellen und Haushaltegenerierung. Die Tests best?tigten die Machbarkeit des Zensusmodells, zeigten aber gleichzeitig, dass noch umfangreiche Entwicklungsarbeiten erforderlich sind und dass die Register noch keine Qualit?t aufweisen, die einen Verzicht auf prim?rstatistische Erhebungen zur Korrektur und Erg?nzung der Registerergebnisse zulassen. Dies gilt auch unter Berücksichtigung der in den n?chsten Jahren vorgesehenen Ma?nahmen zur Verbesserung der Qualit?t der Melderegister, wie die Einführung eines elektronischen Rückmeldeverfahrens oder die Erg?nzung der Melderegister um eine bundeseinheitliche Steuernummer für jede Person. Soweit in den n?chsten Jahren die erforderlichen Investitionen in Entwicklung und Vorbereitung eines registergestützten Zensus get?tigt werden, k?nnte in Deutschland im Rahmen der n?chsten EU-Zensusrunde ein solcher Zensus im Jahre 2011 zu einem Bruchteil der Kosten eines herk?mmlichen Zensus durchgeführt werden. Erst mit diesem Zensus k?nnte dann letztlich festgestellt werden, welche Qualit?t die Register zu diesem Zeitpunkt aufweisen, wie sich das Modell eines registergestützten Zensus (fl?chendeckend) in der Praxis bew?hrt und welche Ma?nahmen für darauf folgende Zensen in Angriff genommen werden müssen.相似文献
95.
According to the property rights approach,decision rights have to be allocated accordingto the distribution of intangible knowledge assetsbetween the franchisor and franchisee andownership rights have to be assigned according to theresidual rights of control (residual decisionrights). Since residual income rights are diluted infranchising relationships, ownership rightsinclude not only residual income rights (initial fees androyalties) but also complementary ownershipsurrogates to simulate the motivation effect of undilutedownership rights. Therefore, under a propertyrights perspective, an efficient contract structure infranchise relationships implies co-locationbetween knowledge assets and decision rights andcomplementarity between residual decision andownership rights. The more important the franchisor's(franchisee's) system-specific assets (localmarket knowhow) for the generation of residual surplus, themore decision and complementary ownership rightsshould be transferred to the franchisor(franchisee). Three hypotheses were derivedfrom the property rights approach and tested in the Germanfranchise sector. The empirical results arepartly supportive of the hypotheses. 相似文献
96.
97.
Tanja Dünnfründ Bernd Gasch Siegfried Greif Martin Schneider Falko von Ameln Josef Kramer 《Gruppendynamik und Organisationsberatung》2007,38(4):407-422
Potentials of organization development (OD) are discussed from the perspectives of organization/client, counselling and science. The focal questions of the discussion are: What can OD achieve compared to strategy consulting? How can both forms be sensibly combined? What are the potentials of a psychologically based form of organizational counselling? Which (potentially latent) functions do organizational consulting / OD fulfil for the client organization? The discussion closes with considerations regarding a potential professionalization and the future of OD. 相似文献
98.
Marie Hušková Claudia Kirch Zuzana Prášková Josef Steinebach 《Journal of statistical planning and inference》2008
We study an autoregressive time series model with a possible change in the regression parameters. Approximations to the critical values for change-point tests are obtained through various bootstrapping methods. Theoretical results show that the bootstrapping procedures have the same limiting behavior as their asymptotic counterparts discussed in Hušková et al. [2007. On the detection of changes in autoregressive time series, I. Asymptotics. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 137, 1243–1259]. In fact, a small simulation study illustrates that the bootstrap tests behave better than the original asymptotic tests if performance is measured by the α- and β-errors, respectively. 相似文献
99.
Let X1, X2,… be an independently and identically distributed sequence with ξX1 = 0, ξ exp (tX1 < ∞ (t ≧ 0) and partial sums Sn = X1 + … + Xn. Consider the maximum increment D1 (N, K) = max0≤n ≤ N - K (Sn + K - Sn)of the sequence (Sn) in (0, N) over a time K = KN, 1 ≦ K ≦ N. Under appropriate conditions on (KN) it is shown that in the case KN/log N → 0, but KN/(log N)1/2 → ∞, there exists a sequence (αN) such that K-1/2 D1 (N, K) - αN converges to 0 w. p. 1. This result provides a small increment analogue to the improved Erd?s-Rényi-type laws stated by Csörg? and Steinebach (1981). 相似文献
100.