Contract Pricing in Consumer Credit Markets

We analyze subprime consumer lending and the role played by down payment requirements in screening high‐risk borrowers and limiting defaults. To do this, we develop an empirical model of the demand for financed purchases that incorporates both adverse selection and repayment incentives. We estimate the model using detailed transaction‐level data on subprime auto loans. We show how different elements of loan contracts affect the quality of the borrower pool and subsequent loan performance. We also evaluate the returns to credit scoring that allows sellers to customize financing terms to individual applicants. Our approach shows how standard econometric tools for analyzing demand and supply under imperfect competition extend to settings in which firms care about the identity of their customers and their postpurchase behavior.     

Inference and rare event simulation for stopped Markov processes via reverse-time sequential Monte Carlo

We present a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Markov chain trajectories with proposals constructed in reverse time, which is advantageous when paths are conditioned to end in a rare set. The reverse time proposal distribution is constructed by approximating the ratio of Green’s functions in Nagasawa’s formula. Conditioning arguments can be used to interpret these ratios as low-dimensional conditional sampling distributions of some coordinates of the process given the others. Hence, the difficulty in designing SMC proposals in high dimension is greatly reduced. Empirically, our method outperforms an adaptive multilevel splitting algorithm in three examples: estimating an overflow probability in a queueing model, the probability that a diffusion follows a narrowing corridor, and the initial location of an infection in an epidemic model on a network.     

Patterns of consent: evidence from a general household survey

Summary.  We analyse patterns of consent and consent bias in the context of a large general household survey, the 'Improving survey measurement of income and employment' survey, also addressing issues that arise when there are multiple consent questions. A multivariate probit regression model for four binary outcomes with two incidental truncations is used. We show that there are biases in consent to data linkage with benefit and tax credit administrative records that are held by the Department for Work and Pensions, and with wage and employment data held by employers. There are also biases in respondents' willingness and ability to supply their national insurance number. The biases differ according to the question that is considered. We also show that modelling questions on consent independently rather than jointly may lead to misleading inferences about consent bias. A positive correlation between unobservable individual factors affecting consent to Department for Work and Pensions record linkage and consent to employer record linkage is suggestive of a latent individual consent propensity.     

An ethnographer in the global arena: globography perhaps?

In this article Hendry addresses the difficulties and apparent contradictions of applying the qualitative rigour of the ethnographic research method to fieldwork carried out in a global context. While pursuing a discourse evidently shared by people indigenous to many different parts of the world, the author reflects on why she feels the work she is doing still draws on elements of the qualitative strength of the method first developed by her own discipline of social anthropology. This subject is now somewhat unfashionable for reasons precisely associated with the discourse she is following, namely a status inequality seen as implicit in the representation of ‘other’ peoples. In the article she argues against throwing the baby out with the bathwater, however, and seeks to demonstrate how the value the ethnographic method gleaned from social anthropology offers an important contribution to understanding local aspects of global issues.     

Attitudes and Acts of Sexual Aggression on a University Campus*

There is increasing understanding of the widespread extent of men's physical sexual coercion of women in this society. In this study, we document the amount of that coercion among a sample of college students. We try to explain that coercion in terms of certain valucs (traditional sex-role conceptions that amount to an ideology of gender inequality). We also try to explain that coercion in terms of attitudes towards physical sexual coercion. For purposes of this study, we measured both females’experience as victims of sexual aggression and males’experience as perpetrators of sexual aggression. We also measured both males’and females’values regarding gender inequality and attitudes regarding sexual aggression. We found that female college students in our sample had experienced a considerable amount of sexual aggression. We also found that male and female students’values regarding gender inequality and their attitudes regarding physical sexual coercion differed widely. Finally, we found strong relationships between male students’values and attitudes and their participation in sexual aggression.     

Variations in the Over-Representation of Aboriginal Young Offenders in the Criminal Justice System

It is well publicised that Aborigines, both adult and juvenile, are over-represented in the criminal justice system. However, an examination of youth offending in South Australia during the period 1 July 1979 — 30 June 1983 has indicated that the degree of Aboriginal over-representation increases rapidly as they move up through the various stages of the system. They are least over-represented at the lowest stage, namely at the Children's Aid Panel level, and most over-represented at the sentencing stage of the Children's Court in terms of the numbers sentenced to detention in a youth training centre. This raises questions about the applicability of the juvenile section of the criminal justice system to Aborigines.     

A Systems-Developmental Approach to Counselling Couples with Sexual Problems: Part II — Strategies for Intervention

We present a two-part model for the understanding and treatment of long-standing sexual problems, especially those involving desire discrepancy between partners. In Part I, we described a theoretical model for understanding the development of sexual problems in terms of the normal developmental patterns of relationships in current Western culture and the balances and imbalances that develop as a consequence of differences in styles of loving. In this Part II, we examine and describe the implications of the theoretical model for therapeutic intervention.