Building a Values‐Informed Mental Model for New Orleans Climate Risk Management

Individuals use values to frame their beliefs and simplify their understanding when confronted with complex and uncertain situations. The high complexity and deep uncertainty involved in climate risk management (CRM) lead to individuals’ values likely being coupled to and contributing to their understanding of specific climate risk factors and management strategies. Most mental model approaches, however, which are commonly used to inform our understanding of people's beliefs, ignore values. In response, we developed a “Values‐informed Mental Model” research approach, or ViMM, to elicit individuals’ values alongside their beliefs and determine which values people use to understand and assess specific climate risk factors and CRM strategies. Our results show that participants consistently used one of three values to frame their understanding of risk factors and CRM strategies in New Orleans: (1) fostering a healthy economy, wealth, and job creation, (2) protecting and promoting healthy ecosystems and biodiversity, and (3) preserving New Orleans’ unique culture, traditions, and historically significant neighborhoods. While the first value frame is common in analyses of CRM strategies, the latter two are often ignored, despite their mirroring commonly accepted pillars of sustainability. Other values like distributive justice and fairness were prioritized differently depending on the risk factor or strategy being discussed. These results suggest that the ViMM method could be a critical first step in CRM decision‐support processes and may encourage adoption of CRM strategies more in line with stakeholders’ values.     

GM Foods and the Misperception of Risk Perception

Public opposition to genetically modified (GM) food and crops is widely interpreted as the result of the public's misperception of the risks. With scientific assessment pointing to no unique risks from GM crops and foods, a strategy of accurate risk communication from trusted sources has been advocated. This is based on the assumption that the benefits of GM crops and foods are self-evident. Informed by the interpretation of some qualitative interviews with lay people, we use data from the Eurobarometer survey on biotechnology to explore the hypothesis that it is not so much the perception of risks as the absence of benefits that is the basis of the widespread rejection of GM foods and crops by the European public. Some respondents perceive both risks and benefits, and may be trading off these attributes along the lines of a rational choice model. However, for others, one attribute-benefit-appears to dominate their judgments: the lexicographic heuristic. For these respondents, their perception of risk is of limited importance in the formation of attitudes toward GM food and crops. The implication is that the absence of perceived benefits from GM foods and crops calls into question the relevance of risk communication strategies for bringing about change in public opinion.     

Informed Public Preferences for Electricity Portfolios with CCS and Other Low‐Carbon Technologies

Public perceptions of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and other low‐carbon electricity‐generating technologies may affect the feasibility of their widespread deployment. We asked a diverse sample of 60 participants recruited from community groups in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to rank 10 technologies (e.g., coal with CCS, natural gas, nuclear, various renewables, and energy efficiency), and seven realistic low‐carbon portfolios composed of these technologies, after receiving comprehensive and carefully balanced materials that explained the costs and benefits of each technology. Rankings were obtained in small group settings as well as individually before and after the group discussions. The ranking exercise asked participants to assume that the U.S. Congress had mandated a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from power plants to be built in the future. Overall, rankings suggest that participants favored energy efficiency, followed by nuclear power, integrated gasification combined‐cycle coal with CCS and wind. The most preferred portfolio also included these technologies. We find that these informed members of the general public preferred diverse portfolios that contained CCS and nuclear over alternatives once they fully understood the benefits, cost, and limitations of each. The materials and approach developed for this study may also have value in educating members of the general public about the challenges of achieving a low‐carbon energy future.     

准备好做领袖了吗？

领导者必须做好思想上的准备以面对未知的挑战是什么让杰出的企业领袖不同于那些平庸之辈呢?最出色的领军人物能预见未来的变化,发现变化所带来的机遇,能让自己的组织从变化中受益。总的来说,他们有备而来。现在,做好充分的准备比以往愈加重要了,这是Bill Welter和Jean Egmon所坚     

何时推进，何时退后

如何从不太重要的信息中找出重要的信息呢?在同老板的交往中通过了解他想从你那里了解什么,从而提前进行区分要达到企业所希望的结果,你需要依赖员工分享重要信息．提出他们在同客户、合作伙伴甚至是竞争对手的交往中形成的创意。但鼓励员工分享他们的深刻见解的同时．你也希望他们有自己的判断力。你不需要了解资料的所有细节。     

你是否发掘了知识工作者的最大价值？

管理知识工作者的人必须以新的方式履行职能巴布逊学院(Babson College)信息技术与管理学总统奖教授托马斯·达文波特(Thomas Davenport)称:如今,知识工作者占据了经济发达国家25％到50％的劳动力。知识工作者为你发明新产品和新服务、设计营销计划,并制定战略。     

杜绝预算诡计

在繁荣时期,企业领导不会太在意预算诡计又到了做预算的时候,几名经理企图故伎重演。营销主管抛出一份“谦虚”的计划,以便自己超额完成目标,赚到奖金。事业部经理掩盖本部门的弊病,以便为计划争取资金。产品开发总监坚持说,如果不给他的设想投资,公司将注定完蛋。马拉康顾问公司(Marakon Associates)驻纽约合伙人理查德·斯     

克拉多·帕塞拉：领导变革

迄今为止，很少有执行官能够成功地在一家陷入困境的大型组织内部实现变革，克拉多·帕塞拉就是为数不多的成功者之一，不仅如此，他还先后成功地领导两家大型企业完成了变革。     

Bivariate deconvolution with SIMEX: an application to mapping Alaska earthquake density

Constructing spatial density maps of seismic events, such as earthquake hypocentres, is complicated by the fact that events are not located precisely. In this paper, we present a method for estimating density maps from event locations that are measured with error. The estimator is based on the simulation–extrapolation method of estimation and is appropriate for location errors that are either homoscedastic or heteroscedastic. A simulation study shows that the estimator outperforms the standard estimator of density that ignores location errors in the data, even when location errors are spatially dependent. We apply our method to construct an estimated density map of earthquake hypocenters using data from the Alaska earthquake catalogue.