外层空间命运共同体构建略论

长期以来, 外空安全治理结构失衡, 美国为维护其全球霸权阻挠外空军控的国际努力。国际社会关于外空军控谈判正处于攻坚阶段, 同时也面临着美国的战略遏制与\     

社会资本、政府绩效与城市居民对政府的信任

目前有关中国政治信任的研究多是在中国农村地区进行的,还没有对城市居民的相关研究。我们根据对厦门市居民的问卷调查考察了我国城市居民对政府的信任程度,并进一步分析了影响城市居民政府信任的各种因素。我们将社会资本和政府绩效作为主要的预测变量,探讨了社会资本各个因素及政府绩效对居民政府信任的影响情况。回归分析的结果表明,从总体上看,社会资本和政府绩效对城市居民政府信任的影响是积极正面的。改进政府工作和建构社会资本可以在很大程度上增加城市居民对各级政府的信任度。     

The Effect of Veteran Status on Mortality among Older Americans and its Pathways

This research examines excess mortality among American veterans age 70 years or older during a two-to-three year interval from 1993/94 to the end of 1995. Using a structural hazard rate model, we analyzed data on a sample of respondents age 70 or over from the Survey of Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD). We found that at age 70, older veterans have a slightly higher death rate than their nonveteran counterparts, implying a mortality crossover right before this age. Such excess mortality among veterans increases considerably with age, when other factors are held equal. The direct and indirect effects of veteran status on mortality by means of physical and mental health mostly perform in opposite directions, and such effects vary greatly in magnitude and direction as a function of age. The intervening effects of physical and mental health status decrease substantially with increasing age. Many of the mechanisms inherent in the excess mortality among older veterans are not captured by variations in their health status, especially among the oldest-old. A more extensive study on this topic is urgently needed.     

Modifications of the Empirical Likelihood Interval Estimation with Improved Coverage Probabilities

The empirical likelihood (EL) technique has been well addressed in both the theoretical and applied literature in the context of powerful nonparametric statistical methods for testing and interval estimations. A nonparametric version of Wilks theorem (Wilks, 1938 Wilks , S. S. ( 1938 ). The large-sample distribution of the likelihood ratio for testing composite hypotheses . Annals of Mathematical Statistics 9 : 60 – 62 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) can usually provide an asymptotic evaluation of the Type I error of EL ratio-type tests. In this article, we examine the performance of this asymptotic result when the EL is based on finite samples that are from various distributions. In the context of the Type I error control, we show that the classical EL procedure and the Student's t-test have asymptotically a similar structure. Thus, we conclude that modifications of t-type tests can be adopted to improve the EL ratio test. We propose the application of the Chen (1995 Chen , L. ( 1995 ). Testing the mean of skewed distributions . Journal of the American Statistical Association 90 : 767 – 772 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) t-test modification to the EL ratio test. We display that the Chen approach leads to a location change of observed data whereas the classical Bartlett method is known to be a scale correction of the data distribution. Finally, we modify the EL ratio test via both the Chen and Bartlett corrections. We support our argument with theoretical proofs as well as a Monte Carlo study. A real data example studies the proposed approach in practice.     

Multivariate Control Charts Based on Hybrid Novelty Scores

We propose a new nonparametric multivariate control chart that integrates a novelty score. The proposed control chart uses as its monitoring statistic a hybrid novelty score, calculated based on the distance to local observations as well as on the distance to the convex hull constructed by its neighbors. The control limits of the proposed control chart were established based on a bootstrap method. A rigorous simulation study was conducted to examine the properties of the proposed control chart under various scenarios and compare it with existing multivariate control charts in terms of average run length (ARL) performance. The simulation results showed that the proposed control chart outperformed both the parametric and nonparametric Hotelling's T ² control charts, especially in nonnormal situations. Moreover, experimental results with real semiconductor data demonstrated the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed control chart. To increase the capability to detect small mean shift, we propose an exponentially weighted hybrid novelty score control chart. Simulation results indicated that exponentially weighted hybrid score charts outperformed the hybrid novelty score based control charts.     

On the estimation of the true probability of a correct selection

For ranking and selection problems, the true probabiIity of a correct selection P(CS) is unknown even if a selection is made under the indifference-zone approach. Thus to estimate the true P(CS) some Bayes estimators and a bootstrap estimator are proposed for two normcal populations with common known variance. Also a bootstrap estimator and a bootstrap confidence interval are proposed for normal populations with common unknown variance. Some comparisons between proposed estimators and some other known estimators are made via Monte Carlo simulations.     

拜登政府对华政策走向及其地缘政治影响:以美国印太战略为视角

拜登政府赞同特朗普政府对华认识,并继承了其对华遏制战略的基本思想,同时加紧实施针对中国的“联盟战略”,拉拢更多盟友,利用国际规则和法律,继续在知识产权、技术转移、补贴、产业政策、科技等领域持续打压中国,严重影响了中国快速发展的进程,增添了中国和平解决台海问题的复杂性与难度。中国必须早作应对。     

社会主义核心价值体系的语言载体与实际功能

＂党民一体,财德并重,权国民定＂是反映时代发展要求的新观念,运用马克思主义立场观点对＂党民一体,财德并重,权国民定＂的理论解读,同时,阐述了以＂三点六面＂发挥社会主义核心价值体系的引领作用和方法。     

服务企业虚拟经营战略实施途径研究——基于价值链的视角

目前有关制造型企业虚拟经营的研究较多,也产生了较为丰富的理论体系和实践模式。然而对于服务企业虚拟经营机制的探讨尚有不足,尤其是服务企业虚拟经营战略实施途径的相关研究几乎空白。以价值链嵌入为研究视角,以242个服务企业的经营数据作为实证研究样本,利用因子分析法将服务企业经营资源进行了种类归纳和属性划分,然后利用多元回归分析方法进行了检验,探讨了服务企业实施虚拟经营战略的适用性范式,推导得出策略联盟式和插入兼容式是知识密集型服务企业的适用性虚拟经营范式,供应链式和外包合作式是劳动密集型服务企业的适用性虚拟经营范式的结论。