The implications of irreversibility in emergency response decisions

The irreversibility effect implies that a decision maker who neglects the prospect of receiving more complete information at later stages of a sequential decision problem will in certain cases too easily take an irreversible decision, as he ignores the existence of a positive option value in favour of reversible decisions. This option value represents the decision maker's flexibility to adapt subsequent decisions to the obtained information. In this paper we show that the economic models dealing with irreversibility as used in environmental and capital investment decision making can be extended to emergency response decisions that produce important irreversible effects. In particular, we concentrate on the decision whether or not to evacuate an industrial area threatened by a possible nuclear accident. We show in a simple two-period evacuation decision model that non-optimal conclusions may be drawn when evacuation is regarded as a `now or never decision'. The robustness of these results is verified by means of a sensitivity analysis of the various model parameters. The importance of `options thinking' in this decision context is illustrated in an example.     

Employment After Parenthood: Women of Migrant Origin and Natives Compared

Motherhood negatively affects female employment in majority populations across Europe. Although employment levels are particularly low among women of migrant origin, little is known about the motherhood–employment link in migrant populations. This paper investigates whether family formation differentially affects the labour market position of migrant women and their descendants compared to natives. Using longitudinal microdata from the Belgian social security registers, 12,167 women are followed from 12 months before until 48 months after the birth of their first child for the period 1999–2010. Levels of activity (versus inactivity), employment (versus unemployment) and full-time employment (versus part-time employment) are compared between natives and first- and second-generation women of Southern European, Eastern European, Turkish and Moroccan origin. We find that activity and employment levels decrease to a larger extent following the transition to parenthood among women of migrant origin than among natives. With respect to activity levels, differences between second-generation women and natives are largely explained by socio-demographic and pre-birth job characteristics, while differences between first-generation women and natives are not, suggesting that other factors such as tied migration patterns determine labour market attachment among first-generation mothers. With respect to employment levels, unemployment is increasing more among women of migrant origin of both generations than among natives, also when controlling for background characteristics, which signals differential access to stable job positions as well as to family policies. In sum, the results draw attention to the challenge that parenthood creates for mothers of migrant origin in terms of retaining and gaining employment, but also to the role of labour market entry and early career positions.     

Compositional Tables Analysis in Coordinates

Compositional tables – a continuous counterpart to the contingency tables – carry relative information about relationships between row and column factors; thus, for their analysis, only ratios between cells of a table are informative. Consequently, the standard Euclidean geometry should be replaced by the Aitchison geometry on the simplex that enables decomposition of the table into its independent and interactive parts. The aim of the paper is to find interpretable coordinate representation for independent and interaction tables (in sense of balances and odds ratios of cells, respectively), where further statistical processing of compositional tables can be performed. Theoretical results are applied to real‐world problems from a health survey and in macroeconomics.     

Stressed by Choice: a Business Model Analysis of the BBC

This paper aims to explain the recent defensive strategy of downsizing at the BBC. The paper rejects the analysis of both industry practitioner and neoclassical economics academic critics who represent the corporation as an all-powerful, abusive player in a market and instead develops an alternative concept of the business model, which focuses the pressures of financial viability and stakeholder credibility to explain the restructuring. We argue that the BBC's business model is stressed because it struggles to deliver what key stakeholders want and expect from the corporation, from a pot of revenue that is limited by regulation. The BBC's problem is compounded by demands for more programming hours following its move into digital and by the increasingly formalized demands of regulators on behalf of an absent consumer. The paper concludes that without reflexive, business-model-centred regulation, it is likely that the BBC's business model will become unsustainable.     

The assessment of values in medical decision making

Individuals, families, and health care providers consider medical treatment decisions in light of their respective values about life iin varying states of health. The clarification of health care values is important not only in the context of everyday clinical decision making, but also for advance care planning and the resolution of ethical dilemmas. This article argues that objective assessment tools may facilitate the process of clarifying and communicating health care values in these contexts. The article reviews arguments for the importance of values assessment in health care planning, methods used to date for health care values assessment, conceptual and methodological challenges for the measurement of health care values, and lessons learned through the process of developing and piloting a Health Care Values Survey. Objective values assessment tools appear useful for eliciting health care values, although multiple challenges for reliable, valid, and clinically useful measurement of values are identified.     

Family Policies and the Western European Fertility Divide: Insights from a Natural Experiment in Belgium

Countries in Northwestern Europe, including Belgium, report cohort fertility levels of close to two children per woman; whereas Central European countries, such as Germany, have levels of around 1.6 children. In seeking to explain these differences, some scholars have stressed the role of the social policy context, while others have pointed to variation in fertility‐related social norms. But because these influences are interdependent, it is difficult to isolate their effects on fertility trends. This study attempts to disentangle these two factors by drawing on a quasi‐natural experiment. After World War I Germany was compelled to cede the Eupen–Malmedy territory to Belgium. The population of this region has retained its German linguistic identity, but has been subject to Belgian social policies. We examine whether the fertility trends in this German‐speaking region of Belgium follow the Belgian or the German pattern. Our findings indicate that they generally resemble the Belgian pattern. This suggests that institutional factors are important for understanding the current fertility differences in Western Europe.     

Exit from and re‐entry into social assistance benefit in Belgium among people with migration background and the native‐born

Whereas several studies have examined the timing of exit from social assistance, little is known about the exit destinations after social assistance and whether these entail different risks of re‐entry into social assistance. Using administrative data, we studied 13,552 people with various migration backgrounds who entered social assistance in Belgium in 2004 or 2005. We tracked their social assistance spell(s) and the income source(s) after exit on a quarterly basis over 4 years, using random‐effects hazard models. We found that one‐third of the beneficiaries exited from first‐spells to work, whereas 14% left to active labour market programmes (ALMPs) and 16% to social insurance benefits. About a third re‐entered social assistance, in particular after short work exits. Participation in ALMPs and social insurance benefit receipt was less common among beneficiaries with migration background compared with native‐born and these exits led less frequently to re‐entry than did exits to paid employment.