Type-I-error rate inflation in mixed models for repeated measures caused by ambiguous or incomplete model specifications

Pre-specification of the primary analysis model is a pre-requisite to control the family-wise type-I-error rate (T1E) at the intended level in confirmatory clinical trials. However, mixed models for repeated measures (MMRM) have been shown to be poorly specified in study protocols. The magnitude of a resulting T1E rate inflation is still unknown. This investigation aims to quantify the magnitude of the T1E rate inflation depending on the type and number of unspecified model items as well as different trial characteristics. We simulated a randomized, double-blind, parallel group, phase III clinical trial under the assumption that there is no treatment effect at any time point. The simulated data was analysed using different clusters, each including several MMRMs that are compatible with the imprecise pre-specification of the MMRM. T1E rates for each cluster were estimated. A significant T1E rate inflation could be shown for ambiguous model specifications with a maximum T1E rate of 7.6% [7.1%; 8.1%]. The results show that the magnitude of the T1E rate inflation depends on the type and number of unspecified model items as well as the sample size and allocation ratio. The imprecise specification of nuisance parameters may not lead to a significant T1E rate inflation. However, the results of this simulation study rather underestimate the true T1E rate inflation. In conclusion, imprecise MMRM specifications may lead to a substantial inflation of the T1E rate and can damage the ability to generate confirmatory evidence in pivotal clinical trials.     

Family and work-related risk factors in children's social–emotional well-being and parent–educator cooperation in flexibly scheduled early childhood education and care

Non-standard work schedules (NSWS) have become typical, but their associations with childcare arrangements and children's well-being are unknown. This study explores how risk factors are associated with the social–emotional well-being of girls and boys using flexibly scheduled early childhood education and care. Furthermore, the study investigates whether well-functioning cooperation between parents and educators buffers the negative effects of the risk factors. This study, which is a part of a larger survey carried out in three European countries, reports Finnish parents' (N = 146) perspectives. The results showed that high parental stress was associated with low child well-being. Strong parent–educator cooperation positively impacted both boys' and girls' social–emotional well-being. The risk factors of reconciling work and family life had negative associations with children's well-being and the fulfilment of their basic needs. The results illustrate the complex interrelations between children's well-being, risk factors relating to NSWS and the buffering effect of protective factors.     

Supporting the agency of cities as climate migration destinations

As climate migration has garnered the interest of research and policy communities over the last two decades, the focus has been on whether, how and where climate stresses might precipitate out-migration, and how to assist and protect those affected. Less attention has gone to the places that receive climate migrants, and how their arrival might affect adaptation at destination. Against the backdrop of increasingly severe climate disruptions, this paper examines the likelihood of climate-related movements going into urban areas, and the challenges that this may entail for those who move and for urban governance. With much of climate migration projected to feed into existing urbanization trends, we see the need for data and research to help bolster the agency of communities and cities to plan and act locally, and across geographies, for inclusion and resilience, and to advocate collectively for enabling policy frameworks and increased national and international support.     

Explaining with Intentional Omissions

Determining the human activity that social processes consist in is a central task for the philosophy of the social sciences. This paper asks: which conception of agency arising from contemporary action theory is the most suitable for social science explanation? It is argued that a movement-centered, Davidsonian picture of agency is not suitable for explaining certain social processes such as strikes and boycotts because, instead of intentional bodily movements, they are explained by the intentional omissions of agents. I propose that instead of intentional bodily movements, social processes are better explained by phenomena in which an agent is taking an active relation both to her mental or bodily processes as well as to what is happening around her. Thus, to fully explain social processes, a comprehensive theory of agency that can account for intentional actions and intentional omissions and a conception of agency that includes both materialist and volitionalist aspects is needed.     

Role of social welfare in European suicide prevention

Yur'yev A, Värnik A, Värnik P, Sisask M, Leppik L. Role of social welfare in European suicide prevention The aims of this study were to assess the relationship between suicide mortality and social expenditure in 26 European countries, explore attitudes towards welfare systems and their relationship with suicide mortality, and compare attitudes towards welfare provision in Eastern and Western Europe. The World Health Organization suicide data and Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development social expenditure data for 1980–2005 were used. Data on attitudes towards welfare systems were taken from the European Social Survey. Differences between mean scores for attitudes in Western and Eastern European countries were calculated. Correlations between social expenditure and suicide trends were negative in most countries for both genders. Inverse correlations between attitudes towards welfare provision and suicide mortality rates were demonstrated for males only. Differences in attitudes were found between Eastern and Western European countries; for example, confidence in the welfare system was found to be stronger in Western Europe. Higher social expenditure and greater confidence in welfare provision appear to have suicide‐preventive effects.     

The effect of fast and slow decisions on risk taking

We experimentally compare fast and slow decisions in a series of experiments on financial risk taking in three countries involving over 1700 subjects. To manipulate fast and slow decisions, subjects were randomly allocated to responding within 7 seconds (time pressure) or waiting for at least 7 or 20 seconds (time delay) before responding. To control for different effects of time pressure and time delay on measurement noise, we estimate separate parameters for noise and risk preferences within a random utility framework. We find that time pressure increases risk aversion for gains and risk taking for losses compared to time delay, implying that time pressure increases the reflection effect of Prospect Theory. The results for gains are weaker and less robust than the results for losses. We find no significant difference between time pressure and time delay for loss aversion (tested in only one of the experiments). Time delay also leads to less measurement noise than time pressure and unconstrained decisions, and appears to be an effective way of decreasing noise in experiments.     

Making Professional Decisions in Research: Measurement and Key Predictors

The professional decision-making in research (PDR) measure was administered to 400 National Institutes of Health (NIH)-funded and industry-funded investigators, along with measures of cynicism, moral disengagement, compliance disengagement, impulsivity, work stressors, knowledge of responsible conduct of research (RCR), and socially desirable response tendencies. Negative associations were found for the PDR and measures of cynicism, moral disengagement, and compliance disengagement, while positive associations were found for the PDR and RCR knowledge and positive urgency, an impulsivity subscale. PDR scores were not related to socially desirable responding, or to measures of work stressors and the remaining impulsivity subscales. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, lower moral disengagement scores, higher RCR knowledge, and identifying the United States as one’s nation of origin emerged as key predictors of stronger performance on the PDR. The implications of these findings for understanding the measurement of decision-making in research and future directions for research and RCR education are discussed.     

Stock investors’ preference for short-term vs. long-term bonuses

Bonuses in the finance sector may be based on too short time intervals for environmental and social factors to be taken into account in investment decisions. We report two experiments to investigate whether investors prefer short-term to long-term bonuses. In Experiment 1 employing 27 undergraduates, preferences were measured for four short-term certain bonuses, evenly distributed across a time interval, and one certain long-term bonus at the end of the time interval. A majority chose the short-term bonuses, and in order for the long-term bonus to be equally preferred it had to be about 40% higher than the four added short-term bonuses. Experiment 2 employing another 36 undergraduates introduced outcome uncertainty that more accurately reflects the choices stock investors face. The participants again choose between a long-term bonus and four distributed short-term bonuses. It was shown that uncertainty made more participants prefer the long-term bonus to the added short-term bonuses than when the outcome was certain. A smaller increase of the long-term bonus of about 20% was now required to make it equally attractive as the four added short-term bonuses.