Probabilistic Reliability Modeling for Oil Exploration & Production (E&P) Facilities in the Tallgrass Prairie Preserve

The aging domestic oil production infrastructure represents a high risk to the environment because of the type of fluids being handled (oil and brine) and the potential for accidental release of these fluids into sensitive ecosystems. Currently, there is not a quantitative risk model directly applicable to onshore oil exploration and production (E&P) facilities. We report on a probabilistic reliability model created for onshore exploration and production (E&P) facilities. Reliability theory, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), and event trees were used to develop the model estimates of the failure probability of typical oil production equipment. Monte Carlo simulation was used to translate uncertainty in input parameter values to uncertainty in the model output. The predicted failure rates were calibrated to available failure rate information by adjusting probability density function parameters used as random variates in the Monte Carlo simulations. The mean and standard deviation of normal variate distributions from which the Weibull distribution characteristic life was chosen were used as adjustable parameters in the model calibration. The model was applied to oil production leases in the Tallgrass Prairie Preserve, Oklahoma. We present the estimated failure probability due to the combination of the most significant failure modes associated with each type of equipment (pumps, tanks, and pipes). The results show that the estimated probability of failure for tanks is about the same as that for pipes, but that pumps have much lower failure probability. The model can provide necessary equipment reliability information for proactive risk management at the lease level by providing quantitative information to base allocation of maintenance resources to high-risk equipment that will minimize both lost production and ecosystem damage.     

Myths and Moral Authority in Maluku: The Case of Ambon

Since January 1999, the island of Ambon, located in the province of Maluku (Moluccas) in Eastern Indonesia, has been the scene of a virtual war between Christians and Muslims. Amid its religious underpinnings, two competing nationalistic ideologies have developed, one based on allegiance to an ethnic Moluccan nation and the other to a civic nation of common residence. Attempts to rationalise the underlying sentiment of the masses in these movements have purported rational explanations of the pursuit of common material interests, while others have focused on innate emotions of individual loyalty to their community. The other explanation suggests that identity is constructed as an ideological myth that convinces the individual of the simplicity of otherwise complex situations. In this respect, this paper has focused on the psychological and political appeal of myths of kinship as strengthening ideas of national consciousness and individual loyalty. It is asserted that the construction of new 'us' and 'them' visions of imagined community occur in the context of social, economic and political processes. These disruptive forces place individuals in stress situations and make them susceptible to these ideologies which offer simplistic diagnoses of complex social and political changes.     

Computer incompetents in the cross-hairs.

Human Resources managers are distressingly aware that more than half the middle and senior managers (40- and 50-year-olds) in their organizations are technologically incompetent. Having spent millions on technology, most corporate CEOs, many of whom can't use a computer either, are drawing a bead on middle managers who are passively resisting the computer revolution. Physician executives are no exception. Given the current shortage of physician managers with good track records and people skills, can middle managers skirt technology issues until retirement if they dance slowly enough? It's doubtful. Organizations are using new tactics to bar technically challenged managers from their ranks: They will only interview candidates with mastery of specific software and they're posting job opportunities on their web sites. Those who still believe they can ride out the computer revolution may want to rethink that strategy.     

Tort claims for road accident compensation and social security in South Africa

The statutory scheme of road accident compensation in South Africa encapsulates both the common law of tort or delict and the residue of liability insurance principles. The absence of meaningful interaction between the road accident compensation scheme and the broader social security system raises significant challenges. There are dissonant responses to the targeted misfortune, provision of benefits, financing, choice of remedies and socioeconomic-political priorities selected by the South African government. It is argued that the current scheme should be identified as falling squarely within a state-funded and regulated scheme of comprehensive social protection.     

The Impact of Candidate Sex on Evaluations of Candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives*

Objectives. To examine how voters and the general public evaluate women candidates by examining ideological and issue‐based evaluations of women candidates for the House of Representatives. Methods. Data are drawn from the National Election Study for all U.S. House elections from 1990 to 2000. OLS and logistic regression models examining the role of candidate sex in evaluations are tested. Results. When evaluating Democratic candidates, people see them as more liberal and utilize more female issues in their evaluations when the candidate is a woman. For Republican candidates, candidate sex is much less likely to be related to how people evaluate them. Conclusion. The central role of party in public evaluations of women candidates suggests that the impact of candidate sex on voters is more complex than previous works have suggested.     

Employment motivations of farm spouses

In the study reported here, reasons for working off the farm and reasons for not working off the farm are examined as a function of gender and socioeconomic characteristics. Women are significantly less likely than men to work off the farm to supplement farm income, and significantly more likely to work off the farm for personal reasons. A logistic regression analysis finds that men, those employed fulltime off the farm, and those with lower household incomes are most likely to cite economic reasons for working off the farm. Men are nearly twice as likely as women to cite time constraints as the primary reason for not working off the farm, while only women cite family responsibilities. Logistic regression reveals that men, those with higher household incomes, and those with livestock operations are most likely to cite lack of time as the primary reason for not working off the farm.Patricia J. Wozniak is Associate Professor in the Department of Experimental Statistics, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803. Her research interests include family life and family economics, as well as the application of statistics to the social sciences. She received her Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of Wisconsin—Milwaukee.Kathleen K. Scholl is Senior Coordinator of the Economics Team of the Public Policy Institute at the American Association of Retired Persons, 1909 K Street NW, Washington, DC 20049. She received her Ph.D. from Purdue University.