Individual Actual or Perceived Property Flood Risk: Did it Predict Evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in North Carolina, 2003?

Individual perception of risk has consistently been considered an important determinant of hurricane evacuation in published studies and reviews. Adequate risk assessment is informed by environmental and social cues, as well as evacuation intentions and past disaster experience. This cross‐sectional study measured perceived flood risk of 570 residents of three coastal North Carolina counties, compared their perception with actual risk determined by updated flood plain maps, and determined if either was associated with evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in 2003. Census blocks were stratified by flood zone and 30 census blocks were randomly selected from each flood zone. Seven interviews were conducted at random locations within selected blocks. Bivariate and multivariable analyses were conducted to produce crude and adjusted risk differences. Neither the designated flood zone of the parcel where the home was located nor the residents' perceived flood risk was associated with evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in the bivariate analysis. In the multivariable analysis, intention to evacuate and home type were important confounders of the association between actual risk and evacuation. The belief that one is at high risk of property damage or injury is important in evacuation decision making. However, in this study, while coastal residents' perceived risk of flooding was correlated with their actual flood risk, neither was associated with evacuation. These findings provide important opportunities for education and intervention by policymakers and authorities to improve hurricane evacuation rates and raise flood risk awareness.     

Intergenerational Profiles of Socioeconomic (Dis)advantage and Obesity During the Transition to Adulthood

Investigations of socioeconomic status (SES) and health during the transition to adulthood in the United States are complicated by the later and more varied transitions in residence, employment, schooling, and social roles compared with previous generations. Parental SES is an important influence during adolescence but cannot sufficiently capture the SES of the independent young adult. Typical, single SES indicators based on income or education likely misclassify the SES of young adults who have not yet completed their education or other training, or who have entered the labor force early with ultimately lower status attainment. We use a latent class analysis (LCA) framework to characterize five intergenerational SES groups, combining multidimensional SES information from two time points—that is, adolescent (parental) and young adult (self) SES data. Associations of these groups with obesity, a high-risk health outcome in young adults, revealed nuanced relationships not seen using traditional intergenerational SES measures. In males, for example, a middle-class upbringing in adolescence and continued material advantage into adulthood was associated with nearly as high obesity as a working poor upbringing and early, detrimental transitions. This intergenerational typology of early SES exposure facilitates understanding of SES and health during young adulthood.     

Analytic bounds on causal risk differences in directed acyclic graphs involving three observed binary variables

We apply a linear programming approach which uses the causal risk difference (R_DC)$(R{D}_C)$ as the objective function and provides minimum and maximum values that R_DC$R{D}_C$ can achieve under any set of linear constraints on the potential response type distribution. We consider two scenarios involving binary exposure X, covariate Z and outcome Y. In the first, Z is not affected by X, and is a potential confounder of the causal effect of X on Y. In the second, Z is affected by X and intermediate in the causal pathway between X and Y. For each scenario we consider various linear constraints corresponding to the presence or absence of arcs in the associated directed acyclic graph (DAG), monotonicity assumptions, and presence or absence of additive-scale interactions. We also estimate Z-stratum-specific bounds when Z is a potential effect measure modifier and bounds for both controlled and natural direct effects when Z is affected by X  . In the absence of any additional constraints deriving from background knowledge, the well-known bounds on R_Dc$R{D}_c$ are duplicated: -Pr(Y≠X)?R_DC?Pr(Y=X)$-\mathit{Pr}(Y\ne X)?R{D}_C?\mathit{Pr}(Y=X)$. These bounds have unit width, but can be narrowed by background knowledge-based assumptions. We provide and compare bounds and bound widths for various combinations of assumptions in the two scenarios and apply these bounds to real data from two studies.     

Barriers to equality: why British fathers do not use parental leave

In 2011, the UK passed the Additional Paternity Leave (APL) policy, but less than 1% of eligible fathers took APL in its first year. This study investigates reasons for nonuse of APL. We find four main reasons: financial costs, gendered expectations, perceived workplace resistance, and policy restrictions. First, most fathers emphasized the role of finances in their leave decisions, sometimes taking annual leave for their second week because statutory pay was not enough. Second, both mothers and fathers largely assumed that mothers would take longer maternity leave due to gender differences in earnings and a greater emphasis on maternal over paternal bonding. Third, fathers felt that their workplaces would not be fully supportive of longer leave. Fourth, APL provides low pay and little flexibility. Gender plays a prominent role in each of the four themes. We discuss implications for Shared Parental Leave (SPL), which recently went into effect. Based on our findings, SPL is unlikely to be effective.     

Men's attitudes toward parenthood

In recent family literature, men are often characterized as deadbeat dads, with a focus on their lack of involvement, mainly financial but physical and emotional as well. At the same time, there has been little attention paid to how men feel about being parents. This paper examines men's attitudes toward parenthood using data from the National Survey of Families and Households. The results indicate (1) married men are significantly less likely than unmarried men to think that the stress of raising children, the ability to purchase goods, career time, leisure time, and old age security are important considerations in deciding whether or not to have a child; (2) men with higher education are more likely than less educated men to consider time for career and time for leisure and social activities important in making fertility decisions but are less likely to consider having someone to love important; and (3) black and Hispanic men are more likely to place importance on old age security than non-Hispanic white men.     

Defrocking dualism: A new approach to defining industrial sectors

In this paper we argue that a division of the economy into core and periphery sectors does not do justice to the complexity of the structure of the U.S. economy. The dualistic approach is inadequate both theoretically and empirically. While the dual economy literature has utilized multiple concepts it has conceived of them as forming a single dimension. We develop additional concepts from the complex organizations literature and utilize this enlarged set of concepts in a truly multidimensional framework. We also present a new technique of categorization based on a combination of factor and cluster analyses. The resulting categorization is highly interpretable, and it is superior to previous operationalizations in that it fully reflects the multidimensionality of economic segmentation.     

Community confidentiality,consent, and the individual research process: Implications for demographic research

Institutional review boards are increasingly meticulous about informed consent and risks and benefits to study participants. Concurrently, heated debate in a number of fields has advanced the notion of community risk and benefit. When research is conducted in communities, and the results may “do harm to” communities socially, economically, or medically, should informed and voluntary consent be obtained from communities as well? We argue that for demographers – by definition interested at the phenomena at the population level – concern for individuals as a part of communities is critical to the research process. Questions of community consent, confidentiality, and participation will be pushed to the fore as demography delves into new areas and methods of investigation. This paper provides a brief overview of the historical development of ethics in human subjects research and the subsequent ties to community-level concerns. Drawing on current examples from a variety of settings, we explore definitions of community, the scope and viability of community participation in research, and the implications of these for demographic enquiry. We find that in contrast to substantive debates, little attention has been given to ethical issues in the demographic research process. Research accountability to communities, including the documentation of community risks and benefits, and community representation and consultation in the research process are recommended.     

Overcoming the barriers: a case study of service volunteers in post-Soviet Russia

Voluntary organisations and volunteer action are new pheno-mena in post-Soviet Russia. Despite growing needs, cultural and socio-economic barriers preclude their massive development. This is a report on a case study of a volunteer programme that succeeded in overcoming these barriers, and in recruiting large numbers of volunteers. Characteristics of the volunteers and organisational conditions that enabled this success were identified and lessons drawn.