Discount rates and risky sexual behaviors among teenagers and young adults

This article examines the relationship between personal discount rates and sexual behaviors in a sample of teenagers and young adults. We find that higher discount rates (an indication of less willingness to forego current consumption for future consumption) are significantly associated with a range of sexual behaviors, including ever having sex, having sex before age 16 years, and past or current pregnancy. These associations are consistent with previous studies showing a link between discounting and other, non-sexual health behaviors. JEL Classification D80 · D90 · I10     

Privatizing Social Services in the U.S.A.

Governmental and private sector social services organizations have traditionally shared important roles for provision and delivery of social services in the United States. Over the past fifty years, however, a predominant position has developed for the public sector, especially through federal funding for social service programmes. Recent challenges to the prevailing role of public sector dominance have been expressed by the proponents for privatization at a time when decreasing federal funds are made available for social service programmes. The analysis presented here examines the potential and problems associated with the privatization strategies offered through load shedding, limited-government arrangements, fee charging and competition. As a macro level approach for a comprehensive system of social service provision and delivery, these privatization strategies raise more questions than immediate solutions. A more optimistic view is taken if privatization leads to a more meaningful balance with increased co-operation between public and private social welfare auspices.     

Adolescent Religiosity and School Contexts*

Objectives. Schools serve as the primary social organizations for adolescents, structuring their lives and conveying a variety of skills, norms, and values, but relatively little is known about how schools influence the development of religious belief, attitudes, and behavior during adolescence. We explore how schools' religious norms, coupled with adolescents' pursuit of social status through conformity, affect public and private religiosity. Methods. Employing data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), we use multilevel modeling to examine the impact of school context on adolescents' public and private religiosity. Results. We find that school norms are influential in shaping both public religious expressions and private devotional activities, but pursuit of social status is a motivation for change across religious contexts only of public religious activity. The effect of social status as a motivator of religious change was moderated by the strength of the adolescent's identification with the school, especially for private religiosity. Conclusions. Schools play a key role in the social development of adolescents, and students' religious beliefs and behaviors are influenced systematically and observably by the type of religious climate within the school.     

Updating the Debate on Intergenerational Fairness in Pension Reform

This article examines the arguments involved in claims about the fairness or unfairness of government policies that would require current working generations to bear the full impact of their lower fertility on the costs of retirement pensions. The analysis is set in the context of a wider review of debate on the role of the idea of generational fairness in assessing options for reform under conditions of population ageing. The article considers three questions: whether generational fairness poses a serious problem for pay‐as‐you‐go pension schemes; whether it is reasonable to assess the generational fairness of pension policy in isolation from other kinds of generational transfer; and whether there is a good case for redistribution from future generations in favour of the baby boom generation.     

冷战后国际关系与美国外交政策

冷战结束以后国际政治发生的巨大变化是由苏联解体和国际权力结构的失衡所造成的。在失去了苏联的制衡之后,美国的行为越来越表现出肆意妄为和粗暴蛮横的特征。美国用先发制人战略取代威慑和遏制战略是错误的,布什政府的单边主义政策只能使美国在世界上越来越孤立。国际均势的恢复是一个漫长的过程,但是,国际体系的均势最终将会实现。     

Pope John Paul II and Catholic Opinion Toward the Death Penalty and Abortion*

Objective. Research on opinion leadership examines the convergence of opinion between elites and masses on issues of public policy. I examine the confluence of opinion between Pope John Paul II and American Catholics on the death penalty and legalized abortion. Method. I use data from three nationally representative opinion surveys and one statewide survey conducted prior to John Paul's death. Results. The results support the supposition that Catholics who esteemed the pope are more negative in their evaluations of the death penalty and abortion. Conclusions. John Paul II, as leader of the Catholic Church, may have influenced Catholic opinion on political issues.     

The theory of risk-bearing: Small and great risks

Under certain conditions, risk-sharing and, in particular, insurance are mutually advantageous transactions. An ideal competitive market fcr risk-shifting is described; the payments received by individuals depend on the resolution of all the uncertainties at the time of the market, including, for example, damages to all parties, not just to the insured. In an ideal system, premiums depend only on the total damage in a given state, not on its distribution over individuals. In particular, mitigation measures are optimally induced. The differences between the ideal model of insurance and the real world are described, and some explanations offered.     

Exploring the Traits of Happy People

This paper explores self-reported happiness across afourfold personality framework that synthesizespsychoanalytic and psychometric approaches topersonality structure. Using survey data from arepresentative sample of the U.S. adult population, weidentified four personality types rooted in two basicdimensions – Extraversion/Introversion andTendermindedness/Toughmindedness. On a general level,we found that Extraverts were happier than Introverts,and Tendermindeds were happier than Toughmindeds. More specifically, we identified patterns ofsimilarities and differences across personality typesin the meaning of happiness with respect to goodeating habits, financial insecurity, anxiety andtension, financial optimism, and health concerns.     

A longitudinal analysis of family migration and the gender gap in earnings in the united states and great britain

This article uses longitudinal data for the United States and Great Britain to examine the impact of residential mobility and childbirth on the earnings of women, their family earnings, and the related division of earnings by gender. This project is the _ rst to compare explicitly the impact of childbirth and family migration on women’s earnings, and it extends prior cross-sectional and longitudinal studies on isolated countries by providing a direct contrast between two major industrialized nations, using comparable measures. The results indicate that families respond in similar ways in both countries to migration and childbirth. In response to both migration and childbirth, women’s earnings fall at the time of the event and recover slowly afterward, but the magnitude of the impact is roughly twice as large for childbirth as for migration. However, migration but not the birth of a child is also associated with a significant increase in total family earnings because of increased husbands’ earnings. As a result, the effect of migration on the relative earnings of wives to husbands is similar to the effect of childbirth. These results suggest that family migration should be given consideration in the literature on the gender earnings gap.     

Pre‐procreative ages in population stability and cyclicity

Age‐specific models of population renewal (with and without feedback) which imply convergence to a stable state for some levels of fertility or feedback may imply the presence of long‐term cycling around a constant or exponentially changing equilibrium for other levels of fertility or feedback. The switch from one regime to the other is a “bifurcation.”; The conditions for bifurcation involve the roots of an analogue of Lotka's Equation.

Typically bifurcation is induced by raising the strength of feedback or the level of fertility. It has been known since the early 1980s, however, that this is sometimes impossible. It is sometimes impossible even with the linear renewal equation itself and with the most basic of non‐linear models, Lee's cohort feedback model.

Here it is proved that this typical route to bifurcation does not fail for these basic models in the presence of a condition which always holds for realistic applications with higher organisms: the existence of a span of ages before the onset of fertility.

Specifically, a strictly positive lower bound on ages of procreation is proved to be sufficient to guarantee the existence of a rescaling of Lotka's Equation for which the real part of some complex root vanishes. This result holds for absolutely Lebesgue‐integrable (signed) net maternity functions on the positive real line and for absolutely summable (signed) net maternities on the positive integers.

It follows that Coale's rescaling device for the analysis of approach to stability in stable population theory can be implemented for all realistic human net maternity schedules. It also follows that the many special cases of the cohort feedback model throughout population biology will all generate persistent cycling instead of stability if feedback is sufficiently strong.