Modeling Poliovirus Risks and the Legacy of Polio Eradication

This introduction to the special issue on modeling poliovirus risks provides context about historical efforts to manage polioviruses and reviews the insights from models developed to support risk management and policy development. Following an overview of the contents of the special issue, the introduction explores the road ahead and offers perspective on the legacy of polio eradication.     

Characterizing Poliovirus Transmission and Evolution: Insights from Modeling Experiences with Wild and Vaccine‐Related Polioviruses

With national and global health policymakers facing numerous complex decisions related to achieving and maintaining polio eradication, we expanded our previously developed dynamic poliovirus transmission model using information from an expert literature review process and including additional immunity states and the evolution of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). The model explicitly considers serotype differences and distinguishes fecal‐oral and oropharyngeal transmission. We evaluated the model by simulating diverse historical experiences with polioviruses, including one country that eliminated wild poliovirus using both OPV and inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) (USA), three importation outbreaks of wild poliovirus (Albania, the Netherlands, Tajikistan), one situation in which no circulating vaccine‐derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) emerge despite annual OPV use and cessation (Cuba), three cVDPV outbreaks (Haiti, Madura Island in Indonesia, northern Nigeria), one area of current endemic circulation of all three serotypes (northern Nigeria), and one area with recent endemic circulation and subsequent elimination of multiple serotypes (northern India). We find that when sufficient information about the conditions exists, the model can reproduce the general behavior of poliovirus transmission and outbreaks while maintaining consistency in the generic model inputs. The assumption of spatially homogeneous mixing remains a significant limitation that affects the performance of the differential equation‐based model when significant heterogeneities in immunity and mixing may exist. Further studies on OPV virus evolution and improved understanding of the mechanisms of mixing and transmission may help to better characterize poliovirus transmission in populations. Broad application of the model promises to offer insights in the context of global and national policy and economic models.     

Integrated Analysis: Combining Risk and Economic Assessments While Preserving the Separation of Powers

This article presents a process for an integrated policy analysis that combines risk assessment and benefit-cost analysis. This concept, which explicitly combines the two types of related analyses, seems to contradict the long-accepted risk analysis paradigm of separating risk assessment and risk management since benefit-cost analysis is generally considered to be a part of risk management. Yet that separation has become a problem because benefit-cost analysis uses risk assessment results as a starting point and considerable debate over the last several years focused on the incompatibility of the use of upper bounds or "safe" point estimates in many risk assessments with benefit-cost analysis. The problem with these risk assessments is that they ignore probabilistic information. As advanced probabilistic techniques for risk assessment emerge and economic analysts receive distributions of risks instead of point estimates, the artificial separation between risk analysts and the economic/decision analysts complicates the overall analysis. In addition, recent developments in countervailing risk theory suggest that combining the risk and benefit-cost analyses is required to fully understand the complexity of choices and tradeoffs faced by the decisionmaker. This article also argues that the separation of analysis and management is important, but that benefit-cost analysis has been wrongly classified into the risk management category and that the analytical effort associated with understanding the economic impacts of risk reduction actions need to be part of a broader risk assessment process.     

Leaders, followers, and time

In order to consider leadership from a temporal perspective, we examine extant leadership research that refers to temporal variables in its theorizing and/or empirical testing. We consider rhythmic patterns manifested in leader and follower behavior and employ entrainment, polychronicity, pace/speed, punctuality, and temporal depth as categorization concepts for the analysis. Further, we propose general theoretical statements about temporal dimensions and their prospective roles in relationships and processes related to leadership.     

Siblings’ Differential Treatment in Mexican American Families

We investigated the patterns and correlates of parents’ differential treatment of adolescent siblings in 246 two‐parent Mexican American families. In home interviews, siblings rated 7 domains of differential treatment (e.g., privileges, chores, warmth) as well as their adjustment and perceptions of parental acceptance and fairness, and both parents and adolescents reported on cultural dynamics. More gender‐typed patterns of differential treatment were evident when parents were more oriented to Mexican than Anglo culture. The links between differential treatment and youth reports of adjustment, parental acceptance, and parental fairness were moderated by adolescents’ familism values, particularly for older siblings: Differential treatment was linked more strongly to adjustment and parent‐youth relationship problems when youth reported lower levels of familism.     

Experiential versus rational training: a comparison of student attitudes toward homosexuality

Based on Epstein's (1994a) cognitive-experiential self-theory, two new training interventions were designed to teach students about gay, lesbian and bisexual issues. The efficacy of these theoretically based interventions was assessed in a short-term (7-week, three occasion) longitudinal study. Fifty undergraduate psychology students were randomly assigned to one of three treatment groups: Rational Training, Experiential Training, or Control Group. A residualized change score procedure was used to analyze change in levels of sexual prejudice and affect across the three types of measurement (pre-test, post-test, and follow-up). A 3 (Rational Training, Experiential Training, Control Group) x 2 (Low Sexual Prejudice, High Sexual Prejudice) MANOVA revealed that after the training, participants in the Experiential Group (affective training) had more accepting attitudes toward homosexuality compared to the Control Group. In addition, participants in the Experiential Group experienced more positive affect compared to the Rational and Control Groups and experienced more negative affect compared to the Rational Group. Findings are discussed and suggestions for future research are provided.     

Mental disorder, subsistence strategies, and victimization among gay, lesbian, and bisexual homeless and runaway adolescents

This study compares participation in deviant subsistence strategies, street victimization, and lifetime prevalence of five mental disorders (conduct disorder, major depressive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, alcohol abuse, and drug abuse) among heterosexual males and females (n = 366) and gay, lesbian, and bisexual (n = 63) homeless and runaway adolescents from the first wave of a longitudinal study of homeless youth in four Midwestern states. The results indicate that gay, lesbian, and bisexual adolescents were more likely to have been physically and sexually abused by caretakers, we more likely to engage in risky survival strategies when on their own (including survival sex), were more likely to be physically and sexually victimized when on the streets, and were more likely to meet criteria for mental disorder than were their heterosexual counterparts.     

Risk-taking, attitudes toward aggression, and aggressive behavior among rural middle school youth

This study examined the relationship between risk-taking, general acceptance of aggression (GAA), verbal harassment (VH), and aggressive behavior (AB) in the last 30 days among 1440 seventh- and eighth-grade rural middle school youth. Higher levels of risk-taking predicted higher GAA and VH. Significant interactions for AB indicated that, excepting Black youth, higher risk-taking was related to higher levels of violent behavior. Among Black youth the highest levels of AB occurred at moderate levels of risk-taking. Level of risk-taking is an important risk factor that should be taken into account in the study of attitudes toward aggression and aggressive behavior among rural youth.     

Leveraging identities: the strategic manipulation of social hierarchies for political gain

Much scholarship on boundary-making focuses on dyadic relationships between “us” and “them.” Yet the presence of multiple categories within societies allows for complex interactions among more than two potentially relevant groups. To capture this phenomenon and its dynamics better, we develop the concept of leveraging: the strategic manipulation of social distance among three or more constructed groups for political gain. The use of one group as a lever against another may involve stigmatizing or elevating categories of people along boundaries of race, ethnicity, national origin, religion, gender, class, sexual orientation, or other salient social markers. We theorize these processes and identify the motivations of the initiators of leveraging as well as the range of possible responses to it. We use a pair of empirical case studies drawn from contemporary Europe and additional examples from other settings to demonstrate the relevance of the concept. Conceptualizing leveraging both improves our scholarly understanding of group-making processes and offers political actors tools for interpreting and responding to a common set of strategic practices.