Large scale communication networks—Design and analysis

The paper discusses the problem of design and analysis of large scale communication systems. An iterative process, composed of a minimum cost network design algorithm and a network performance algorithm, is presented for the solution of these problems. Computational considerations, using these algorithms, are discussed.     

Family size and children’s education in Thailand: Evidence from a national sample

Analysis of a large, nationally representative survey shows that family size exerts a substantial negative influence on the probability that a child will attend secondary school in Thailand. The primary mechanism underlying this effect is most likely the dilution of familial resources available per child associated with larger numbers of children. The extent and the level of schooling at which this effect operates vary with the household level of wealth and with rural or urban residence. Because fertility decline is leading to a major increase in the proportion of children who come from small families, falling birth rates contribute to increasing educational attainment in Thailand.     

The use of strategic planning techniques in the United Kingdom

In this paper some of the techniques available for strategic planning are reviewed. Four techniques are presented, the experience curve, the growth-share matrix, the directional policy matrix and the PIMS program. The results of a survey into the use of these techniques in the United Kingdom are also presented.     

Two and a half centuries of demographic history in a Bavarian village

Abstract A village genealogy containing family histories of couples married between 1692 and 1939 serves as the basis for a study of the demographic history of a Bavarian village. The past patterns of marriage, re-marriage, widowhood, illegitimacy, bridal pregnancy, marital fertility, family size, and birth intervals are examined. Both the age at marriage and illegitimacy increased and then declined during the nineteenth century, apparently in response to changes in restrictive marriage legislation. Differences in fertility for occupational groups were insignificant. Marital fertility remained extremely high before 1900 suggesting the absence of any substantial family limitation within marriage. A rise in marital fertility that occurred during the last half of the nineteenth century appears to result from a change in breast-feeding customs. The actual number of children surviving to maturity for most couples was kept quite low, however, through late marriage and high infant mortality. Only during the twentieth century are substantial declines in infant mortality and fertility evident.     

The decline of non-marital fertility in Europe, 1880-1940

Abstract Between 1880 and 1940, to take approximate dates, illegitimate fertility rates in Europe dropped precipitously, falling in most countries by 50% or more. The rates used throughout this paper relate extra-marital births to the number of unmarried (i.e. single, widowed and divorced) women; we use a standardized index, I ({ih}) to be discussed later. In Fig. 1 we present most of the European series of I ( h )'s that can be computed from existing census and vital registration data. Although there are interesting exceptions the general picture is clear: a decline in illegitimate fertility commenced in most countries in the last quarter of the nineteenth century, and was arrested in the 1920's and 1930's. Once it had begun in a country, the downward course was swift and uninterrupted, until non-marital fertility had been cut in half.     

Age and birth date reporting in Thailand

Researchers analyzed age and birth data reporting using data on 6775 ever married women 15-49 years old collected between March-June 1987 for the Thailand Demographic and Health Survey. 80% of the women accurately stated their age within 1 year of actual age. Further they could state with at least equal accuracy the birth dates of their children. Moreover the ages of younger children were quite accurate since they stated age in units less than whole years but misreporting increased with children's age. Thus the proportion of children who were really 1 year old but reported to be 1 year old was smaller than that of children who really were 1 year old but reported to be 2 years old. This pattern continued until that time when children's ages were no longer reported in greater detail than whole years. The researchers found that undercounts of younger children occurred when stated age was the basis for age tabulations. Most people in Thailand considered their age to be the difference between the present year and the year of birth. They did not take into account whether the present year's birthday passed or not. This practice resulted in a considerable percentage of the population for whom stated age was 1 year older than completed age. In fact, it was quite common, at least in rural areas, for Thasis to not even acknowledge birthdays. They did tend to know their lunar month and animal birth year, however. In conclusion, this study revealed that age data in Thailand are probably more affected when inquiries occur early in the year than later in the year. The researchers called for constant updating research since the social and cultural dynamics which affect age and birth data reporting are always changing.     

Thailand's reproductive revolution

Thailand has achieved a remarkable population revolution in the past 15 years, resulting in a fertility decline of 44%, the 3rd greatest decline of the major developing countries. Thailand is quite distinct from either China or South Korea, the leaders in fertility decline. It has neither China's authoritarian power system to enforce population control nor the highly developed, Westernized outlook of South Korea. Instead it achieved its astounding fertility drop through a noncoercive family planning program operating within a context of rapid social change and a cultural setting. Thailand's drop in population growth has touched almost all segments of Thai society. The preferred number of children among couples married less than 5 years has dropped in both rural and urban families at almost exactly the same rate, from about 3.2 in 1969 to 2.3 in 1984. Religious groups represent the only substantial difference in family size preference; Moslem women married less than 5 years stated a desired average of 3.1 children versus 2.3 for Buddhist women. The direct case of the fertility drop is a national increase in contraceptive use. In 1984, 65% of Thai women reported using contraception. The Thai population, however, was ripe for using contraception when it became available due to 1) mass media creating a desire for consumer goods, 2) the increased costs of education to parents, 3) the willingness of parents to trade off "parent repayment" from many children for a few quality children, 4) couples' autonomy in fertility decision making, 5) the high status of women in Thailand, and 6) the fact that Buddhism poses no barriers to contraception. Current trends show no immediate sign of change.