Child mortality and reproductive behaviour in German village populations in the past: A micro-level analysis of the replacement effect

Abstract Reproductive histories of couples married during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries in a sample of 14 German villages are analysed in order to answer several questions regarding the relationship between child mortality and reproductive behaviour. An effort is made through selection of cases and use of multiple classification analysis to eliminate or control non-volitional or otherwise confounding influences on the relationship between a couple's experience with child mortality and their fertility. The results do not provide a decisive answer to the question of whether, under a regime of otherwise presumed natural fertility, previous experience of child mortality affected subsequent reproductive behaviour. The evidence was much clearer in indicating that behaviour consistent with replacement efforts emerged or strengthened as family limitation spread. Finally, the results indicated that though it was not necessary for overall child mortality to decline before family limitation practices were adopted, couples with the most favourable child mortality experience were most likely to practise family limitation and to reduce their fertility. Child mortality appeared at least to impede, if not totally prevent, efforts to reduce the number of children ever born or to cease childbearing at an earlier age or at a given parity.     

Vehicle routing using fixed delivery areas

In this paper we consider the problem of vehicle routing using fixed delivery areas. This is the problem of splitting the area serviced by a depot into a number of separate subareas—a single delivery vehicle being assigned to each subarea to supply all the customers within the subarea. A heuristic algorithm is developed for the problem based upon an initial allocation of customers to subareas followed by customer interchanges in an attempt to improve the subareas. Computational results are presented for a number of test problems drawn from the literature.     

The dynamic,complex and diverse living and care arrangements of young New Zealanders: implications for policy

The living arrangements of young people in New Zealand are diverse and often complex. In this article we report the range of care and living arrangements of 209 15-year-old New Zealanders, 47 of whom identified as Māori. These young people were participants in the second generation of a cohort study. Data were collected from their parents via a life history calendar and analysed for variety and consistency of care arrangements, household membership and transitions. Few participants had a consistent pattern of parental care arrangements and most had experienced multiple changes in household composition and frequent changes of address. We conclude that the whānau/family lives of many young New Zealanders are complex and dynamic. These observations contrast with the conventional notions of family life that form the basis for New Zealand’s family policies. We argue that social policies and services impacting on young people need to reflect the lived reality of young people if they are to meet young people’s needs.     

The Impact of Past Conflicts and Social Disruption on the Elderly in Cambodia

Cambodia experienced violence during the rule of the Khmer Rouge in the 1970s. Many who died were the children or spouses of today's elderly. This may have resulted in an erosion of family support in a country where formal channels of assistance are virtually absent. This article examines the extent to which current Cambodian elderly experienced deaths of children or spouses, forced migration, and separation from family during the Khmer Rouge period and the extent to which these experiences are associated with adverse welfare conditions of older adults. Data come from a 2004 representative survey of persons aged 60 years and older. More than one in four report that a child died from violent causes during the Khmer Rouge period. More than one in five report death of multiple children. A striking, and on the surface counterintuitive, conclusion is that the impact of deaths on welfare is modest. The reasons, elucidated in the article, include close family integration, high fertility among the current generation of older adults, the probability that losses depended on family size, and the pervasiveness of poverty.     

The impact of breast feeding patterns on the biometric analysis of infant mortality

A major assumption of the biometric analysis of infant mortality as developed by Bourgeois-Pichat is that the age structure of infant deaths after the first month of life is virtually constant across time and cultures. Reanalysis of results from studies which compare the mortality of infants according to the type of feeding indicated that the relationship between mortality and age within the first year of life followed different patterns for breast fed and artificially fed infants. Historical data for populations with different breast feeding customs reveal similar differences in the age pattern of infant mortality. In populations where breast feeding was uncommon or of very short duration, infant mortality rises particularly steeply during the early months of the first year of life. The age structure of infant mortality in less developed countries where breast feeding is decreasing rapidly may be similarly affected. When substantial deviations from the linear relationship are evident, particular caution is required in applying the biometric technique, since in such situations the estimated endogenous mortality is very much affected by the particular set of data points within the first year of life which are chosen for the basis of the estimates.     

Strategies for corporate and business success—A survey

In this paper we review the literature on the strategy that a company should adopt, both at a corporate level and at an individual business level, in order to be successful. Some findings from the literature are highlighted and predictions given as to how we believe research into corporate and business strategy will develop.     

Family limitation and the fertility transition: Evidence from the age patterns of fertility in Europe and Asia

Summary The age patterns of marital fertility levels and decline in modern Asia and historical Europe are analysed in order to answer two questions: (1) How closely do the age patterns of marital fertility in both areas prior to a systematic fertility decline conform to the age pattern of natural fertility? (2) How similar are the age patterns of the fertility transition experienced in Europe in the past, and the age pattern of fertility decline now under way in a number of Asian populations? The answers have important implications for our understanding of the fertility transition. They suggest that modern family limitation (i.e. parity-specific fertility control) was largely absent prior to a secular decline in marital fertility in both Europe and Asia. Furthermore, the evidence indicates that once the practice of family limitation starts to spread among the broader strata of the population, it seems almost inevitably to increase until it becomes a common behavioural norm. In this respect, the modern fertility transition appears to result from the spread of innovative behaviour and cannot be viewed simply as an adjustment to new socio-economic circumstances based on previously established behavioural mechanisms.     

Demographic aspects of fertility in Thailand

Abstract Data from a national rural and urban sample survey are analysed in order to examine various demographic aspects of fertility in Thailand. Marital fertility rates found for Thailand are among the highest in Asia. Particularly noteworthy is the persistence of high fertility at older ages of childbearing for rural women. Cumulative fertility shows a pronounced relationship with age at marriage and current marital status. Women who marry at an older age or who experience disruption of their marriages are clearly more likely to have fewer children ever born. Differences in both current and cumulative fertility are strongly associated with residence. Rural women who constitute the vast majority of Thai women, experience the highest fertility, Bangkok-Thonburi women experience the lowest fertility and provincial urban women are characterized by an intermediate fertility level which is closer, however, to the experience of their counterparts in the capital than in the countryside. Rural-urban fertility differences are mitigated but by no means eliminated by differences in infant mortality. In both rural and urban areas a positive association between cumulative fertility and infant morality is evident. Breast-feeding, commonly practised for extended periods-among both rural and urban Thai women, undoubtedly serves to some extent as an intervening variable in this relationship. A comparison of current fertility with cumulative fertility strongly suggests that a decline in marital fertility has been under way recently among urban women, especially those residing in the capital, but not at all among rural women. Although it seems safe to assume that the urban fertility decline results in large part from an increasing use of contraception among urban women, those still in the reproductive ages who were using or had previously used birth control were characterized by higher cumulative fertility than women who had never practised contraception. Evidently couples resort to family planning only late in the family building process after they have already achieved or exceeded the number of children they wish to have.