Joint Persistence of Transformation Products in Chemicals Assessment: Case Studies and Uncertainty Analysis

The joint persistence (JP) quantifies the environmental persistence of a parent compound and a selection of relevant transformation products. Here, the importance as well as the uncertainty of the JP in comparison to the persistence of the parent compound alone (primary persistence, PP) are investigated. To demonstrate the effect of transformation products on the environmental persistence of organic chemicals, three case studies of parent compounds (nonylphenol ethoxylates, perchloroethylene, atrazine) and transformation products are investigated in detail with a multimedia fate model. Comparison of the PP and JP values shows that transformation products can significantly increase the persistence. In addition to the point estimates of PP and JP, the associated uncertainties are investigated. For each of the case studies, the chemical-specific input parameters of all compounds are varied and the corresponding variance of the PP and JP is determined by Monte Carlo simulations. Interestingly, the higher number of input parameters required for the JP does not necessarily increase the uncertainty of the JP as compared to that of the PP alone. An exact mathematical expression specifying the contribution of each transformation product to the JP is given. When transformation products are grouped in different generations, it becomes discernible that the first generation increases the JP most; the later generations are of decreasing importance. Finally, the effect of incomplete knowledge of the transformation products and their properties on the JP results is discussed. For reliable JP estimates, knowledge of the first generation transformation products and their degradation rate constants is required.     

On geometry of the set of admissible invariant quadratic estimators in balanced two variance components model

Two variance components model for which each invariant quadratic admissible estimator of a linear function of variance components (under quadratic loss function) is a linear combination of two quadratic forms,Z ₁,Z ₂, say, is considered. A setD={(d ₁,d ₂)′:d ₁ Z ₁+d ₂ Z ₂ is admissible} is described by giving formulae on the boundary ofD. Different forms of the setD are presented on figures.     

Early Marriage,Rape, Child Prostitution,and Related Factors Determining the Psychosocial Effects Severity of Child Sexual Abuse in Ethiopia

This study was aimed at identifying factors that determine the psychosocial effects severity of child sexual abuse. Data were collected from 318 female children in Ethiopia using the Children's Impact of Traumatic Events Scale–Revised and the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale. The results revealed that respondents who survived rape and child prostitution were more symptomatic than those who were married early. Respondents for whom less time had elapsed since their first experience of abuse demonstrated a significantly higher level of post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms, negative reactions by others, self-blame, and guilt than those for whom more time had elapsed since such an experience. The respondents in an intact marital relationship were found to be less symptomatic than their never married and divorced counterparts. Implications for intervention and further investigations are discussed.     

Change-point detection in a shape-restricted regression model

A regression model with a possible structural change and with a small number of measurements is considered. A priori information about the shape of the regression function is used to formulate the model as a linear regression model with inequality constraints and a likelihood ratio test for the presence of a change-point is constructed. The exact null distribution of the test statistic is given. Consistency of the test is proved when the noise level goes to zero. Numerical approximations to the powers against various alternatives are given and compared with the powers of the k-linear-r-ahead recursive residuals tests and CUSUM tests. Performance of four different estimators of the change-point is studied in a Monte Carlo experiment. An application of the procedures to some real data is also presented.     

The minimum vulnerability problem on specific graph classes

Suppose that each edge e of an undirected graph G is associated with three nonnegative integers \(\mathsf{cost}(e)\), \(\mathsf{vul}(e)\) and \(\mathsf{cap}(e)\), called the cost, vulnerability and capacity of e, respectively. Then, we consider the problem of finding \(k\) paths in G between two prescribed vertices with the minimum total cost; each edge e can be shared without any cost by at most \(\mathsf{vul}(e)\) paths, and can be shared by more than \(\mathsf{vul}(e)\) paths if we pay \(\mathsf{cost}(e)\), but cannot be shared by more than \(\mathsf{cap}(e)\) paths even if we pay the cost for e. This problem generalizes the disjoint path problem, the minimum shared edges problem and the minimum edge cost flow problem for undirected graphs, and it is known to be NP-hard. In this paper, we study the problem from the viewpoint of specific graph classes, and give three results. We first show that the problem is NP-hard even for bipartite outerplanar graphs, 2-trees, graphs with pathwidth two, complete bipartite graphs, and complete graphs. We then give a pseudo-polynomial-time algorithm for bounded treewidth graphs. Finally, we give a fixed-parameter algorithm for chordal graphs when parameterized by the number \(k\) of required paths.     

Evaluation systemischer Strukturaufstellungen im OrganisationskontextEvaluation of Systemic Structural Constellations within an Organizational Context

This article deals with the evaluation of systemic structural constellations within an organizational context. Twelve participants experienced a systemic structural constellation which differed in the kind of constellation (single constellation, constellation with representatives) using a topic from an organizational context. The participants were surveyed by questionnaire and/or interview on their estimation of perceived usefulness, effectivity of the method and practicability of the solution as well as on their perceived self-efficacy at three points in time. A high perceived usefulness, effectivity of the method, practicability of the solution was noticed independently from the kind of constellation. For the “variable perceived self-efficacy” significant differences appeared for the kind of constellation and the time interval as well. Overall, this study gives empirical evidence for the effectiveness of systemic structural constellations used in an organizational context.     

What we learned from the Dust Bowl: lessons in science,policy, and adaptation

This article provides a review and synthesis of scholarly knowledge of Depression-era droughts on the North American Great Plains, a time and place known colloquially as the Dust Bowl era or the Dirty Thirties. Recent events, including the 2008 financial crisis, severe droughts in the US corn belt, and the release of a popular documentary film, have spawned a resurgence in public interest in the Dust Bowl. Events of the Dust Bowl era have also proven in recent years to be of considerable interest to scholars researching phenomena related to global environmental change, including atmospheric circulation, drought modeling, land management, institutional behavior, adaptation processes, and human migration. In this review, we draw out common themes in terms of not only what natural and social scientists have learned about the Dust Bowl era itself, but also how insights gained from the study of that period are helping to enhance our understanding of climate–human relations more generally.     

Large Matching Markets as Two‐Sided Demand Systems

This paper studies two‐sided matching markets with non‐transferable utility when the number of market participants grows large. We consider a model in which each agent has a random preference ordering over individual potential matching partners, and agents' types are only partially observed by the econometrician. We show that in a large market, the inclusive value is a sufficient statistic for an agent's endogenous choice set with respect to the probability of being matched to a spouse of a given observable type. Furthermore, while the number of pairwise stable matchings for a typical realization of random utilities grows at a fast rate as the number of market participants increases, the inclusive values resulting from any stable matching converge to a unique deterministic limit. We can therefore characterize the limiting distribution of the matching market as the unique solution to a fixed‐point condition on the inclusive values. Finally we analyze identification and estimation of payoff parameters from the asymptotic distribution of observable characteristics at the level of pairs resulting from a stable matching.     

Assessments of Direct Human Exposure—The Approach of EU Risk Assessments Compared to Scenario-Based Risk Assessment

The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high-production-volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario-based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst-case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.