Lystematic sampling of two-dimensional surfaces and related problems

The paper is largely concerned with twenty-one possible methods of sampling a plane area, with points as sampling units, for the purpose of estimating a portion of this area having certain defined characteristics. These methods result from a combination, two at a time, of random, stratified and systematic sampling in two perpendicular directions, with or without alignment of the sampled points. Eleven of these methods involve systematic sampling in one or both directions. The estimate of the proportion of the area of interest is simply the proportion of points in the total area, falling within the area having the defined characteristics. For each method the variance function is derived. Fourteen different types of space covariance functions are involved in these variance functions.     

《蒙古——卫拉特法典》与蒙古族传统的财产分配习俗

文章对<蒙古--卫拉特法典>中的财产分配法与蒙古族传统财产分配习惯进行对比和分析,以相关文献记载为例阐述二者的关系、发展趋势和社会作用.     

论理性系统的层次结构和复杂性

不同哲学家分别从理性的不同层次对理性进行解读。这种单向度的理论,虽不能反映出理性的整体性,但表明人类理性具有一定层次性。不同层次理性对材料进行加工和创造依赖于主体各自的价值标准和选择意向;不同层次的价值标准和选择意向的冲突表明不同理性层次之间具有复杂性;理性的复杂性产生于理性系统跨越层次的相干关系。揭示理性系统层次结构和复杂性,对于理清技术（工具）理性与交往理性等价值理性的关系脉络,把握整体性的理性思想和学科之间的关系,挖掘新的认识具有重大意义。     

浅析转型期公共风险的内在规定性

当前,我国正处于经济转轨和社会转型时期,社会的经济结构、政治环境、思想文化仍处于激烈的变动之中,而各种不确定因素的相互作用,必然会引发许多潜在的或现实的矛盾和冲突,给国家和地方政府带来种种不确定的公共风险,本文根据相关理论自定义"公共风险",并研究它的内涵及特性。同时指出地方政府进行公共风险防控的重要性,为地方政府预防和控制公共风险的分析研究提供重要的理论依据。     

Conditional imtorence about an existing universe from independent interpenetrating samples

This paper is essentially an explanation of how the fundamental concepts of andkrity and conditioaality apply to the data of sample surveys that are carried out by the method of mterpeaetoting samples. The resultkg theory is iMustraled by an kterestiag example on deriving exact statements of conditional probability limits for a laear estimand with data from an agricultural sample survey. The paper also suggests that the study of modem statistical inference may profit from an appreciation of the Syadvada lope of ancient India.     

Modelling the evolution of distributions: an application to Major League baseball

Summary.  We develop Bayesian techniques for modelling the evolution of entire distributions over time and apply them to the distribution of team performance in Major League baseball for the period 1901–2000. Such models offer insight into many key issues (e.g. competitive balance) in a way that regression-based models cannot. The models involve discretizing the distribution and then modelling the evolution of the bins over time through transition probability matrices. We allow for these matrices to vary over time and across teams. We find that, with one exception, the transition probability matrices (and, hence, competitive balance) have been remarkably constant across time and over teams. The one exception is the Yankees, who have outperformed all other teams.     

《蒙古译语词典》中的某些词义考释

本文对《蒙古译语词典》里的“鹁鸽”、“溺”、“园”等三个词的蒙古文词义重新作了考释。     

Political Distrust and Social Capital in Europe and the USA

Levels of rising political distrust in the USA and parts of Europe attracted political scientists’ attention in the 1990s, and urged them to look at possible consequences of this phenomenon for the functioning of democracies and social life. Approximately during the same period, from a sociological viewpoint, social capital theorists started studying the effects of declining social capital on political and economic life. In this article, we looked at the relationship between political distrust and social capital from an interdisciplinary perspective. We studied the relationship in six European countries from three regions (North-West, South and East), and the USA, and we were interested in the question of whether this relationship varies over the regions, or whether it is approximately the same everywhere. We used ISPP data from the 2004 wave, which included a range of social capital indicators and political distrust items. Social capital was subdivided into four dimensions, namely, networks (membership of organizations), interpersonal or social trust, social norms (citizenship norms), and linking social capital (political activities). First we studied the effect of political distrust on these four dimensions of social capital, while controlling for other variables such as political efficacy, political interest and a set of socio-structural background variables. One of our main findings was that the only significant effect of political distrust we found throughout all countries was a negative effect on one dimension of social capital, namely, interpersonal trust: the more people distrust politicians and people in government, the less they trust other people in general, even when controlled for all other variables. The reverse relationship led us to the same conclusion: the more people tend to trust people in general, the less they distrust politics, a result we found in all countries. This finding refutes the claim that there is no or either only a very weak relationship between political and social trust, as some have strongly argued before. Other important political attitudes connected to social capital were political interest and political efficacy, and for political distrust it was external efficacy. Significant socio-economic factors were religiousness and educational level for membership of voluntary organizations, educational level for interpersonal trust, religiousness for citizenship norms, and educational level and age for political activities. The reciprocal relationship was strongest in the USA and North-Western Europe, as were the explained variances of our (more extensive) regression models. In Southern and Eastern Europe other factors appear to be at work which influence both social capital and political distrust.