How to avoid concerns with the interpretation of two primary endpoints if significant superiority in one is sufficient for formal proof of efficacy

Formal proof of efficacy of a drug requires that in a prospective experiment, superiority over placebo, or either superiority or at least non-inferiority to an established standard, is demonstrated. Traditionally one primary endpoint is specified, but various diseases exist where treatment success needs to be based on the assessment of two primary endpoints. With co-primary endpoints, both need to be “significant” as a prerequisite to claim study success. Here, no adjustment of the study-wise type-1-error is needed, but sample size is often increased to maintain the pre-defined power. Studies that use an at-least-one concept have been proposed where study success is claimed if superiority for at least one of the endpoints is demonstrated. This is sometimes also called the dual primary endpoint concept, and an appropriate adjustment of the study-wise type-1-error is required. This concept is not covered in the European Guideline on multiplicity because study success can be claimed if one endpoint shows significant superiority, despite a possible deterioration in the other. In line with Röhmel's strategy, we discuss an alternative approach including non-inferiority hypotheses testing that avoids obvious contradictions to proper decision-making. This approach leads back to the co-primary endpoint assessment, and has the advantage that minimum requirements for endpoints can be modeled flexibly for several practical needs. Our simulations show that, if planning assumptions are correct, the proposed additional requirements improve interpretation with only a limited impact on power, that is, on sample size.     

Ethnicity as skill: immigrant employment hierarchies in Norwegian low-wage labour markets

Immigrants are often concentrated in particular, often low-waged, segments of the labour market and employers tend to assume that immigrants posit (soft) skills which make them particularly suited for specific tasks. Less scholarly attention has been given to the real and perceived content of these skills and how employers may shift their view over time. We contribute to the literature by examining changing ethnic employment hierarchies in two immigrant-intensive labour markets in Norway. Drawing on qualitative data from the hotel and fish processing industries, we describe, first, how different ethnic groups are allocated into specific jobs forming a clear hierarchy in the eyes of employers, and, second, how employers’ preferences for particular groups change as new immigrants enter the labour market. Theoretically, we develop the concept of ‘ethnicity as skill’, which points to the tendency among employers to equate ethnic group membership with a set of informal qualifications.     

The power of “mapping the territory”. Why economists should become more aware of the performativity of their models

Economics is not simply about representing reality; it is also about shaping it, an approach encapsulated in Donald MacKenzie’s aphorism that economics is best conceived as an “engine, not as a camera” (MacKenzie and Millo (Am J Sociol 109(1):107–145, 2003). The making and application of economic theories and models contribute actively and intentionally towards the making of our social world, by encouraging, guiding and legitimizing actions and decisions, or discouraging others, and by steering them in certain directions. It follows that economists do not simply draw maps of the economic territory within their compass: they are not straightforwardly the cartographers of the economy, and cannot be seen as the disinterested observers that they commonly represent themselves to be, and indeed are often thought of as. Their theoretical work has or aims at practical consequences for the economy, and indeed for society at large, and their interests and influence are thus by no means confined to academia alone. This article calls for a discussion of the ethical responsibilities of economists, and of economics, and challenges the discipline properly to assume those responsibilities; and it concludes by considering the key questions—what makes a ‘good’ economic model; and what criteria should be used to distinguish the good models, and the ‘good ways’ of handling models and their results, from the bad ones. As far as epistemology, the methodology of research programmes and the relation of theory and (social) practice are concerned, the insights of mainly von Hayek (Br J Philos Sci 6(23):209–225, 1955, The pretence of knowledge. Lecture to the memory of Alfred Nobel, 1974; Individualism and economic order, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp 33–56, 1980a; Individualism and economic order, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp 57–76, 1980b; The theory of complex phenomena. Readings in the philosophy of social science, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1994) and Popper (e.g. The myth of the framework: in defence of science and rationality, Routledge, New York 1994a; Models, instruments, and truth. The status of the rationality principle in the social sciences, pp 154–184, 1994b) provide the background of my discussion of the mentioned issues.     

The Effects of Unemployment on Non-monetary Job Quality in Europe: The Moderating Role of Economic Situation and Labor Market Policies

Social Indicators Research - Previous research has illustrated that unemployment not only has short-term, but also medium-term negative effects on workers’ careers. While most studies have...     

Left-censored dementia incidences in estimating cohort effects

Lifetime Data Analysis - We estimate the dementia incidence hazard in Germany for the birth cohorts 1900 until 1954 from a simple sample of Germany’s largest health insurance company....     

From Dependent to Independent Variable: A Critical Assessment of Operationalisations of ‘Welfare Stateness’ as Macro-Level Indicators in Multilevel Analyses

Social Indicators Research - This paper explores different ways to operationalise properties of the welfare state as explanatory variable in multilevel frameworks. Based on the observation that...     

Feuerwehr und Supervision

Supervision in the fire services is not too common. This article will first describe the multifunctional field of work of the emergency services as well as their job requirements. Then the article will show possible starting points for supervision, and the difficulties in its acquisition and execution. Concludingly there will be a special example of supervision with psychotraumatherapeutic approaches.     

A comparison of fixed and dynamic pricing policies in revenue management

We consider the problem of selling a fixed capacity or inventory of items over a finite selling period. Earlier research has shown that using a properly set fixed price during the selling period is asymptotically optimal as the demand potential and capacity grow large and that dynamic pricing has only a secondary effect on revenues. However, additional revenue improvements through dynamic pricing can be important in practice and need to be further explored. We suggest two simple dynamic heuristics that continuously update prices based on remaining inventory and time in the selling period. The first heuristic is based on approximating the optimal expected revenue function and the second heuristic is based on the solution of the deterministic version of the problem. We show through a numerical study that the revenue impact of using these dynamic pricing heuristics rather than fixed pricing may be substantial. In particular, the first heuristic has a consistent and remarkable performance leading to at most 0.2% gap compared to optimal dynamic pricing. We also show that the benefits of these dynamic pricing heuristics persist under a periodic setting. This is especially true for the first heuristic for which the performance is monotone in the frequency of price changes. We conclude that dynamic pricing should be considered as a more favorable option in practice.