推进城镇化是解决"三农"问题的根本出路

十六大报告提出农村要走中国特色的城镇化道路 ,是符合我国国情及农村生产力的发展水平的 ,标明我们已跳出了就“三农”解决“三农”问题的思路 ,开辟了农村经济发展的新思路。要注意从国情出发 ,走多元化的城镇化道路并加强对小城镇的规划和管理。     

Paul Lazarsfelds typologische Methode und die Grounded Theory. Generierung und Qualität von Typologien

The following article deals with the connections between the typological method proposed by Paul Lazarsfeld and the Grounded Theory. The question how good typologies in qualitative social research can be constructed will be raised. It will be argued that formal criteria are necessary but not sufficient in judging whether a typology is good. The typology also needs to be relevant in its contents. The article will show that the Grounded Theory can help to solve this problem by creating attributes for typology construction analogous to the Grounded Theory's process that is used to generate theory. On the other hand, Lazarsfeld's concept of “attribute space” can be of assistance for the process of “theoretical sampling” proposed by the Grounded Theory by providing a systematic scheme for selecting the cases to be studied. The article will conclude with an empirical example illustrating the issues mentioned above.     

Correlates of sport participation among community-dwelling elderly people in Germany: a cross-sectional study

The aims of this study were (1) to analyze the sport participation in a cohort of community-dwelling elderly people in Germany and (2) to evaluate associations between sport participation, sociodemographic factors, cardiovascular risk factors, and health status. In a monitored prospective cohort study (getABI), 6,880 unselected patients ≥65 years have been followed up by 344 general practitioners beginning in 2001. As part of the 5-year follow-up telephone interview, a sample of 1,376 participants was interviewed on sport participation. The association between participation in at least one sporting activity (“sporty” yes/no) during the past week (cycling) or month (other sports) and the following parameters was analyzed by logistic regression: age, sex, immigration background, education, waist circumference, smoking, self-reported health, history of vascular events, diabetes mellitus, lipometabolic disorder, and arterial hypertension. Analysis of activities (n = 1,304; median age 76 (70–94) years; 55.1% women) showed that 27.6% of participants rode a bicycle during the previous week. During the previous month, 24.9% of participants did gymnastics or strength training, and 16.5% swam. Of all participants, 53.8% were sporty. Multivariate analysis revealed several independent factors to be associated with being sporty (p < 0.05): younger age, male sex, higher education, nonsmoking, better self-reported health, and not being diagnosed with diabetes. Immigration background, waist circumference, history of vascular events, lipometabolic disorder, and hypertension did not show a statistically significant association (p ≥ 0.05) with sport participation. Summing up, the most frequently performed sporting activities were cycling, gymnastics or strength training, and swimming. Sport participation was associated with, for example, age and sex.     

Sexual diversity in Urban Norwegians

The purpose of this study is to describe homosexual and heterosexual experiences in terms of sexual fantasies, sexual attraction, sexual conduct, and falling in love in an urban Norwegian population. In 1997, a randam sample of 5,000 persons (18–49 years) was drawn from the population register in Oslo to participate in a sexual behavior survey. Data collection was carried out by means of postal questionnaires and 45% responded. The results indicated that exclusive homosexuality was rare in the population. One exception was the prevalence of homosexual fantasies in women. Compared to respondents who had had exclusively heterosexual contact, respondents reporting bisexual contacts had a significantly higher number of lifetime sex partners, higher frequency of anal and oral sex and masturbation, and lower age at orgasm and masturbation debut. What significantly separated the groups of exclusive heterosexuals, bisexuals, and exclusive homosexuals were attitudes towards various expressions of sexuality and number of lifetime sex partners.     

Markov Chain Monte Carlo in small worlds

As the number of applications for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) grows, the power of these methods as well as their shortcomings become more apparent. While MCMC yields an almost automatic way to sample a space according to some distribution, its implementations often fall short of this task as they may lead to chains which converge too slowly or get trapped within one mode of a multi-modal space. Moreover, it may be difficult to determine if a chain is only sampling a certain area of the space or if it has indeed reached stationarity. In this paper, we show how a simple modification of the proposal mechanism results in faster convergence of the chain and helps to circumvent the problems described above. This mechanism, which is based on an idea from the field of “small-world” networks, amounts to adding occasional “wild” proposals to any local proposal scheme. We demonstrate through both theory and extensive simulations, that these new proposal distributions can greatly outperform the traditional local proposals when it comes to exploring complex heterogenous spaces and multi-modal distributions. Our method can easily be applied to most, if not all, problems involving MCMC and unlike many other remedies which improve the performance of MCMC it preserves the simplicity of the underlying algorithm.     

A multistate approach for estimating the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus by using data from a prevalent cohort study

Summary.  Cohort studies of individuals infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) provide useful information on the past pattern of HIV diagnoses, progression of the disease and use of antiretroviral therapy. We propose a new method for using individual data from an open prevalent cohort study to estimate the incidence of HIV, by jointly modelling the HIV diagnosis, the inclusion in the cohort and the progression of the disease in a Markov model framework. The estimation procedure involves the construction of a likelihood function which takes into account the probability of observing the total number of subjects who are enrolled in the cohort and the probabilities of passage through the stages of disease for each observed subject conditionally on being included in the cohort. The estimator of the HIV infection rate is defined as the function which maximizes a penalized likelihood, and the solution of this maximization problem is approximated on a basis of cubic M -splines. The method is illustrated by using cohort data from a hospital-based surveillance system of HIV infection in Aquitaine, a region of south-western France. A simulation study is performed to study the ability of the model to reconstruct the incidence of HIV from prevalent cohort data.     

Erzählung und „Bewältigung“

The topic of this paper is the change of perspective from the concept of “coping with illness” in a psychological sense to a concept of coping as “living with (chronic) illness” in a sociological sense. Whereas psychological and even some sociological research presupposes assumptions on causes and essentials of stress as well as on successful coping, we focused on the different ways, in which subjects define strain and their personal aim of coping. These subjective views might differ from the definitions of scientists as well. Furthermore we focus on the social constructions of illness and “normal living” and the social rules of coping with daily hassles, which underlay the subjective views. Assuming that the ways chronically ill resp. disabled persons look at stress and daily hassles is part of their coping, we conclude that stress and coping are mutually constituting each other. This dialectic process is influenced by the persons current situation, by the individual’s history and by cultural rules concerning appropriate coping resp. living with strain in general. Looking at these social rules and how they are modified under the conditions of illness and handicap was the topic of our research project “LIVE—Living and Defending Your Interests—Disabled Women”, financed by the German Fed. Ministry for Family, Seniors, Women and Youth and conducted 1996–1998. In this study a questionnaire was sent to 16 to 60 years old disabled women (return: N=987). Additionally a qualitative interview was conducted with N=60 of them. From a biographical approach the reconstruction of the main subjective patterns in their life histories led us to the social rules of appropriate “coping”. We can take this as a starting point for a sociological discussion of everyday living with chronic illness, that focuses on the social constitution of subjective meanings of stress resp. coping with illness, includes the social context and allows to integrate the gender perspective.