Time series count data regression

The count data model studied in the paper extends the Poisson model by al-lowing for overdispersion and serial correlation. Alternative approaches to esti-mate nuisance parameters, required for the correction of the Poisson maximum likelihood covariance matrix estimator and for a quasi-likelihood estimator, are studied. The estimators are evaluated by finite sample Monte Carlo experi-mentation. It is found that the Poisson maximum likelihood estimator with corrected covariance matrix estimators provide reliable inferences for longer time series. Overdispersion test statistics are wellbehaved, while conventional portmanteau statistics for white noise have too large sizes. Two empirical illustrations are included.     

Preface

Sociological Forum -     

How Fortune 500 companies used the Web for philanthropic and crisis communication following Hurricane Katrina

This study examined how Fortune 500 companies used their Web sites to provide philanthropic and crisis communication response following Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Results showed that companies tended to use traditional means of communication versus new media tactics to disseminate information related to the disaster. Companies with holdings in Louisiana and Mississippi tended to use slightly more types of information than companies without a substantive presence in those two states.     

Reports of Conferences,Institutes, and Seminars

In the span of four weeks, from late March to early April 2008, three important technical services conferences were held: the Electronic Resources & Libraries Conference, the New England Technical Services Librarians Conference, and the North Carolina Serials Conference.     

A 14-h night-shift in the control room of a fire brigade

All 29 operators in the control room of a fire brigade performed test sessions during work and leisure time at 2-h intervals on a day with a 14-h night-shift, a day off and a day with a 10-h morning shift. The test sessions consisted of a visual search choice reaction time test and two Sternberg memory search tests (1 or 5 letters had to be memorized). Furthermore, the operators recorded their oral temperature and their subjective alertness before each test session. The subject also kept a diary of work and sleep times for 14 days. The circadian rhythm of body temperature was hardly changed by a single night-shift. Parallel to the body temperature, the subjective alertness fell significantly during the night-shift reaching a minimum value at 06:00 h. The mean reaction times increased non-significantly at the end of the night-shift and the results of the two Sternberg memory search tests showed no significant trends. The sleep of the operators after the night-shift was on average reduced to 5 hs 34 min. The results of subjective rating of alertness and reaction time test are interpreted as effects of the combined influences of circadian rhythmicity, sleep loss and time on professional task. Most results support the conclusion that a 14-h night-shift without extensive breaks is not acceptable.     

Do Parents of Girls Have a Higher Risk of Divorce? An Eighteen‐Country Study

Using data from the June 1980 Current Population Survey, Morgan, Lye, and Condran (1988) reported that families with a daughter have a higher divorce risk than families with a son. They attribute this finding to the higher involvement of fathers in raising a son, which in turn promotes marital stability. We investigate the relation between gender composition of children and parents’ divorce risk with cross‐national data from the Fertility and Family Survey. These data, which cover 16 European countries, Canada, and the United States, do not support a general hypothesis that sons contribute more to marital stability than daughters.     

杜绝预算诡计

在繁荣时期,企业领导不会太在意预算诡计又到了做预算的时候,几名经理企图故伎重演。营销主管抛出一份“谦虚”的计划,以便自己超额完成目标,赚到奖金。事业部经理掩盖本部门的弊病,以便为计划争取资金。产品开发总监坚持说,如果不给他的设想投资,公司将注定完蛋。马拉康顾问公司(Marakon Associates)驻纽约合伙人理查德·斯     

你是否发掘了知识工作者的最大价值？

管理知识工作者的人必须以新的方式履行职能巴布逊学院(Babson College)信息技术与管理学总统奖教授托马斯·达文波特(Thomas Davenport)称:如今,知识工作者占据了经济发达国家25％到50％的劳动力。知识工作者为你发明新产品和新服务、设计营销计划,并制定战略。     

准备好做领袖了吗？

领导者必须做好思想上的准备以面对未知的挑战是什么让杰出的企业领袖不同于那些平庸之辈呢?最出色的领军人物能预见未来的变化,发现变化所带来的机遇,能让自己的组织从变化中受益。总的来说,他们有备而来。现在,做好充分的准备比以往愈加重要了,这是Bill Welter和Jean Egmon所坚