Modeling for insights,not numbers: the experiences of the energy modeling forum

It has often been contended that the primary goal of policy modeling should be the insights quantitative models can provide, not the precise-looking projections—i.e. numbers—they can produce for any given scenario. Students of the energy policy process, in particular, have noted that preoccupation with the plethora of detailed quantitative results produced by large-scale computer models has substantially impeded their influence on key policy decisions. The creation of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) at Stanford University in 1976 represents one potential remedy for that situation. The EMF was formed to foster better communication between the builders and users of energy models in energy planning and policy analysis. The EMF operates through ad hoc working groups, composed of national and, more recently, international energy modeling and policy experts. These working groups conduct studies concentrating on a single energy topic. The diversity of backgrounds of the working group members ensures that the language of the EMF studies is English, not computer. Each working group identifies existing models relevant to the study's focus. A series of tests is then designed by the group to illuminate the models' basic structure and behavior. A comparison of results is published in a widely distributed report that identifies the models' strengths and weaknesses in the context of the study's topic. Seven EMF studies have been initiated to date: (1) Energy and the economy, (2) Coal in transition, (3) Electric load forecasting, (4) Aggregate elasticity of energy demand, (5) US oil and gas supply, (6) World oil and (7) Macroeconomic impacts of energy shocks. Each EMF study has broadened the understanding of the nature of the relevant policy issues and the models that have been, are, or could be used to address them. The present paper describes how each study's key insights were developed in the context of a simplified analytical framework that provided the proper perspective for understanding the model results.     

Intermarriage of Frontier Immigrant, Religious and Residential Groups: An Examination of Macrostructural Assimilation

Intermarriage among heterogeneous social groups has often been studied as a process of assimilation. The present paper extends this research through a unique application of macro-structural propositions of intermarriage (Blau et al., 1982) to a nineteenth century American frontier population. Variants of these propositions are presented, used to address age patterns of nuptiality, and tested through a longitudinal application. Results support the utility of macro-structural theories in analyses encompassing initial community formation as well as assimilation of later arriving immigrants. Analyses illustrate both the assimilation of initially arriving immigrant groups on the frontier and the initial emergence of new heterogeneities in the established native population and later arriving immigrants.     

NEURO-LINGUISTIC PROGRAMMING™ AND FAMILY THERAPY*

A brief introduction to Neuro-Linguistic Programming? (NLP?) as taught by the developers of NLP, Richard handler, John Grinder and their associates, is presented. This is followed by case examples. The cases illustrate what the authors believe are some of the substantive gains which NLP techniques have provided in their own and others' work with couples and families. NLP's major contributions involve understanding new models of human experience. This paper, however, is focused principally on a consideration of useful technology. The intent is to share from over three years' experiences certain fundamental and consistent benefits derived from the addition of NLP to clinical practice.     

Adolescent crisis and suicidal behavior: Dynamics and treatment

Suicide among adolescents is increasing. Three interacting factors—the crisis of adolescent development, family dysfunctioning, and social factors—create vulnerability to feelings of rejection and worthlessness among suicidal adolescents. Long-term family problems that are not openly acknowledged but for which the adolescent feels responsible are particularly relevant. The authors recommend a multiple approach to assessment and treatment in which crisis intervention is employed initially; and individual treatment for the adolescent and family therapy are utilized concurrently on a long-term basis.