中国旅游消费统计与国际标准的差距及解决对策

 联合国统计委员会、世界旅游组织、欧盟统计处和经合发展组织分别于2001年和2008年联合发布了两个版本的《旅游卫星账户：推荐方法框架》,用于指导各国建立旅游卫星账户、改进各国的旅游统计工作。旅游卫星账户现已成为旅游统计的国际标准。我国的旅游消费统计与国际标准存在差距,导致对旅游业的经济贡献评价不准。本文分析了我国旅游消费统计和国际标准之间的差距,并提出了相应的解决对策。     

Noninformative priors for the common mean in the bivariate normal distribution

In this paper, we consider some noninformative priors for the common mean in a bivariate normal population. We develop the first-order and second-order matching priors and reference priors. We find that the second-order matching prior is also an HPD matching prior, and matches the alternative coverage probabilities up to the second order. It turns out that derived reference priors do not satisfy a second-order matching criterion. Our simulation study indicates that the second-order matching prior performs better than the reference priors in terms of matching the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense. We also illustrate our results using real data.     

Objective Bayesian inference for the ratio of the scale parameters of two Weibull distributions

The Weibull distribution is widely used due to its versatility and relative simplicity. In our paper, the non informative priors for the ratio of the scale parameters of two Weibull models are provided. The asymptotic matching of coverage probabilities of Bayesian credible intervals is considered, with the corresponding frequentist coverage probabilities. We developed the various priors for the ratio of two scale parameters using the following matching criteria: quantile matching, matching of distribution function, highest posterior density matching, and inversion of test statistics. One particular prior, which meets all the matching criteria, is found. Next, we derive the reference priors for groups of ordering. We see that all the reference priors satisfy a first-order matching criterion and that the one-at-a-time reference prior is a second-order matching prior. A simulation study is performed and an example given.     

The Impact of In-Home Services Utilization on the Institutionalization of Older People in Korea

As a result of aging populations, institutionalization of older people is creating an increasing financial burden in many countries. The purpose of the present study was to explore the impact of in-home service utilization on institutionalization. The subjects were newly certified as eligible for long-term care insurance between January and February 2009 in Korea. The follow-up period was 40 months, to April 2012. We used logistic regression models to identify factors influencing the transition to institutional service, adjusting for gender, age, living status, income level, activities of daily living, and chronic disease. The institutionalization rate was estimated to be 17.3% over 40 months. The interval from transitional living to institutionalization was 36 ± 8 months. Risk factors of transition to institutional services are being female, having advanced age, living with friends or cousins, getting dementia, and not using in-home services. We determined that institutionalization is mitigated by use of in-home services. Therefore, supplying appropriate in-home services to current nonusers would help to greatly reduce the rate of institutionalization of older people.     

加入WTO后中国法律服务贸易制度的完善

法律服务是一种特殊形式的商业服务,法律服务实际上主要是律师所提供的服务。中国服务业发展存在严重的不均衡状态,根据WTO的有关原则,发展中国家的缔约国可享有分阶段、分程序地逐渐开放其本国内的服务市场的权利,但必须尽以法律法规的形式通知其他缔约国的义务,所以,中国应相应调整、补充现有的法律服务规则,将从WTO中受到的相关法律服务优惠待遇用法律法规的形式固定下来,以便在一个有序的法律环境下,发展自己的法律服务业。     

试论国家助学贷款良性运行机制建立之对策

国家助学贷款是利用金融手段完善我国普通高校资助政策体系,加大对经济困难学生资助力度所采取的一项重大措施。运行中存在问题是当前市场经济法制不健全、社会信用部分失范的必然结果。要形成大学生助学贷款良性运行机制,必须建立国家、银行、高校、学生与社会"五位一体"的联合保障机制。最重要的是应尽快建立全国性的以居民身份证号码为依托的"全国大学生信用网",并以此作为建立全国性的信用机制的开端。要在全社会形成一种讲诚信光荣、不讲诚信可耻的持久氛围,让信用缺失者无论在何处都要为自己的行为付出代价。此外还应大力发展学生生源所在地贷款业务。     

应用型本科院校大学生社会支持与主观幸福感的关系研究

运用量表法对安徽省四所应用型本科院校的990名大学生进行抽样调查,以研究社会支持与主观幸福感的关系,评估社会支持对大学生主观幸福感的影响。结果表明:在支持利用度、社会支持总分、生活满意度、消极情感和总体幸福感上存在性别差异,除了消极情感上女生得分低于男生,其它方面女生的得分均高于男生,而在客观支持、主观支持和积极情感方面则没有表现出性别差异;在客观支持、主观支持、社会支持总分、生活满意度、积极情感和总体幸福感上存在专业差异,文科生得分均高于理科生;在总体幸福感上存在年级差异,大三的幸福感最高;回归分析表明,社会支持的不同方面对主观幸福感的不同方面产生影响;在预测主观幸福感及各指标时,社会支持的不同方面的预测力是不同的。     

学前教育专业幼儿文学课程的定位及设置构想

幼儿文学课程是学前教育专业的一门专业基础课,其课程目标是通过幼儿文学基本知识的学习与实践,提高学生鉴赏、表现及创编幼儿文学的能力。课程内容可分为理论讲授模块、课内实践模块和课外延伸模块。课程教学中应做到以下几点：理论讲授时注重学生的主动参与;作品鉴赏教学中注重学生的情感体验;实践教学中注重学生能力的培养。课程评价体系的内容与形式应力求多样化。     

梵曲“啰哩嗹”与中国戏曲的传播

本文对戏曲中普遍使用的“啰哩（口连）”的来源、使用场合及其与戏曲传播的关系进行了讨论,指出“啰哩（口连）”是梵曲,最迟晋时已传入中原;它一般在祭戏神时、婚恋场合、乞讨时、烘托气氛时演唱;元代的“啰哩（口连）”——吉普赛人,其波斯发音Luri,有乞讨和婚恋的意思;宋元时的路歧人在诣多方面与啰哩人相似,路歧应是Luri的另一种译法;路歧人、啰哩人在我国戏曲的传播中发挥了重要作用。     

从完善机制的角度加强学习型政党建设

学习型组织是组织成员以突破自己的能力为上限,培养全新、前瞻而开阔的思维方式,全力实现共同的抱负,以及不断地一起学习如何共同学习的组织.作为带领世界最大规模人口行进在现代化之路上的马克思主义执政党,世情、国情、党情的新变化,要求中国共产党必须直面挑战,从政治、全局、战略的高度,重视学习、加强学习,建设学习型政党.从完善机制的角度看,建设学习型政党,领导干部要发挥模范带头作用;建设学习型政党,健全制度是保障;建设学习型政党,持之以恒是基础;建设学习型政党,营造浓厚的学习氛围是关键.