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101.
102.
In this article, we assess Bayesian estimation and prediction using integrated Laplace approximation (INLA) on a stochastic volatility (SV) model. This was performed through a Monte Carlo study with 1,000 simulated time series. To evaluate the estimation method, two criteria were considered: the bias and square root of the mean square error (smse). The criteria used for prediction are the one step ahead forecast of volatility and the one day Value at Risk (VaR). The main findings are that the INLA approximations are fairly accurate and relatively robust to the choice of prior distribution on the persistence parameter. Additionally, VaR estimates are computed and compared for three financial time series returns indexes. 相似文献
103.
Evan W. Anderson Lars Peter Hansen Thomas J. Sargent 《Journal of the European Economic Association》2003,1(1):68-123
A representative agent fears that his model, a continuous time Markov process with jump and diffusion components, is misspecified and therefore uses robust control theory to make decisions. Under the decision maker's approximating model, cautious behavior puts adjustments for model misspecification into market prices for risk factors. We use a statistical theory of detection to quantify how much model misspecification the decision maker should fear, given his historical data record. A semigroup is a collection of objects connected by something like the law of iterated expectations. The law of iterated expectations defines the semigroup for a Markov process, while similar laws define other semigroups. Related semigroups describe (1) an approximating model; (2) a model misspecification adjustment to the continuation value in the decision maker's Bellman equation; (3) asset prices; and (4) the behavior of the model detection statistics that we use to calibrate how much robustness the decision maker prefers. Semigroups 2, 3, and 4 establish a tight link between the market price of uncertainty and a bound on the error in statistically discriminating between an approximating and a worst case model. (JEL: C00, D51, D81, E1, G12) 相似文献
104.
Clary Krekula Stefan Karlsson Lars‐Gunnar Engstrm Lena Grip 《Gender, Work and Organization》2019,26(11):1606-1620
This article discusses gender mainstreaming (GMS) as a strategy to implement gender equality in public work organizations by analysing discourse in terms of the theoretical notions of translation and circulation in organizations to shed light on how gender equality and the mainstreaming strategy are formulated in the documents which govern the Swedish fire and rescue services. More specifically, it looks at how the goals regarding gender equality are circulated and translated. The results show that gender equality as a practice is created in the translation of national goals in terms of the local context and its specific gender equality challenges. Furthermore, the article discusses how vague formulations in the documents are stabilized through circulation between the government and the public agency in question. The results indicate the central role played by maintaining stable translations over time and the presence of a double logic of change in the processes, as well as the importance of legitimizing gender equality initiatives. 相似文献
105.
Marianne Tevik Singstad Jan Lance Wallander Stian Lydersen Lars Wichstrm Nanna Snnichsen Kayed 《Child & Family Social Work》2020,25(2):384-393
Social support may be of particular importance for vulnerable adolescents' development and health and can help them to cope with stressful life events. However, knowledge of perceived social support among adolescents in Residential Youth Care (RYC) is sparse. The present study therefore aimed to investigate perceived social support among adolescents in Norwegian RYC (N = 304, mean age 16.3 years, girls 57.2%), using a short form of the Social Support Questionnaire. The results were compared with adolescents in the general population. The findings revealed that adolescents in RYC reported a lower number of support persons compared with the general population. Both populations reported a decreasing number of support persons as they aged, except for girls in RYC. The adolescents in both populations were satisfied with the support perceived, especially those with the highest number of support persons. However, social support providers differed between the two populations; RYC adolescents reported their extended family, other sources of support, and the institutional staff more often and their parents less. The findings are important for adolescents living in RYC, as knowledge of their social support network could influence the current practices and ensure contact with important support persons, affecting their development and health. 相似文献
106.
Social Indicators Research - The inequality between genders is a problem virtually in all countries. A comparison among 28 nations of the European Union together with a data set corresponding to a... 相似文献
107.
The aging workforce is a risk factor for manufacturing industries that contain many jobs with high physical workloads. Thus, ergonomic risk factors have to be avoided in early phases of production planning. This paper introduces a new tool for simulating manual work activities with 3D human models, the so-called emaΦ. For the most part, the emaΦ software is based on a unique modular approach including a number of complex operations that were theoretically developed and empirically validated by means of motion capturing technologies. Using these modules for defining the digital work process enables the production planner to compile human simulations more accurately and much quicker compared to any of the existing modeling tools. Features of the emaΦ software implementation, such as ergonomic evaluation and MTM-time analyses, and the workflow for practical application are presented. 相似文献
108.
This study examines emotional experiences as potential mediators between exposure to workplace bullying and job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and intention to leave the organization, respectively. A total of 5,520 respondents participated in the study. Drawing upon affective events theory (AET), the results show that emotions partly mediate these relationships and, hence, support the notion that emotions play a central part in the relationship between bullying and essential occupational outcomes. 相似文献
109.
Lars Benjaminsen 《Journal of youth studies》2016,19(1):55-73
This article analyses variation in the family background of young homeless people in a cohort of young Danes. The study is based on administrative data for individuals who were 18 years old in 2007 and their parents. Homelessness is measured by shelter use over a five-year period. Data also cover education, employment, mental illness, substance abuse problems and placement outside home in childhood for the young persons, and education, employment, civil status, mental illness and substance abuse problems for their parents. A cluster analysis identifies two groups, each comprising half of the young shelter users. In the first group, social marginalisation is transmitted between generations, as most parents have low education and mental illness or substance abuse problems, and are unemployed. In contrast, the young people in the second group come from wider socioeconomic backgrounds, with few of their parents having mental illness or substance abuse problems. These young people develop psychosocial problems and become homeless without strong predictors from their family background. Amongst the young shelter users from families with severe social problems a higher share are in the Not in Education, Employment or Training group. They also have more shelter stays, compared to young shelter users from families with fewer social problems. 相似文献
110.
The value of a statistical life (VSL) is a widely used measure for the value of mortality risk reduction. As VSL should reflect preferences and attitudes to risk, there are reasons to believe that it varies depending on the type of risk involved. It has been argued that cancer should be considered a “dread disease,” which supports the use of a “cancer premium.” The objective of this study is to investigate the existence of a cancer premium (for pancreatic cancer and multiple myeloma) in relation to road traffic accidents, sudden cardiac arrest, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Data were collected from 500 individuals in the Swedish general population of 50–74‐year olds using a web‐based questionnaire. Preferences were elicited using the contingent valuation method, and a split‐sample design was applied to test scale sensitivity. VSL differs significantly between contexts, being highest for ALS and lowest for road traffic accidents. A premium (92–113%) for cancer was found in relation to road traffic accidents. The premium was higher for cancer with a shorter time from diagnosis to death. A premium was also found for sudden cardiac arrest (73%) and ALS (118%) in relation to road traffic accidents. Eliminating risk was associated with a premium of around 20%. This study provides additional evidence that there exist a dread premium and risk elimination premium. These factors should be considered when searching for an appropriate value for economic evaluation and health technology assessment. 相似文献