The ‘Failed State Index’ Offers More than Just a Simple Ranking

The role of indicators to measure trends in every area of interest is increasing. Especially in the field of politics and sociology, where modeling based on multiple indicators typically is difficult, multi-indicator systems call for attention. Multi-indicator systems are most often the first step to derive a ranking indicator. Correspondingly there is a high interest in how to transform multi-indicator systems into a one-dimensional metric scale. The scientific discipline of decision support systems provides many well-known techniques, classical examples are PROMETHEE, ELECTRE, DEA or the simple TOPSIS. The mathematical technique is pretty sophisticated, therefore the simplest variant, namely the weighted sum of indicators plays its role too, just because of its simplicity and transparency. Although the need of a derivation of a one-dimensional scale is evident, we argue that there is an interim step, between the multi-indicator system and the ranking index, provided by simple elements of partial order theory. This interim step bears useful information too and in this paper we show how and which useful additional information can be derived. We derive for example a bias-free sensitivity study, where the indicator “chronic and sustained human flight” turns out to be the most important indicator within the multi-indicator system of 12 indicators, which are the basis of the Failed State Index.     

Bimatrix Variate Beta Type IV Distribution: Relation to Wilks's Statistic and Bimatrix Variate Kummer-Beta Type IV Distribution

In this article, the bimatrix variate beta Type IV distribution is derived from independent Wishart distributed matrix variables. We explore specific properties of this distribution which is then used to derive the exact expressions of the densities of the product and ratio of two dependent Wilks's statistics and to define the bimatrix Kummer-beta Type IV distribution.     

The antecedents of psychic distance

This study investigates the antecedents of psychic distance. Building on original data in 25 of the world's largest economies, we investigate potential drivers of perceived psychic distances to foreign countries. The results show these perceptions to be influenced by a range of cultural, geographic, political and economic factors. Among these, absolute geographic distance accounts for the largest share of the explained variance, suggesting that physical distance should be given a more prominent role when it comes to empirically investigating international business decisions for which psychic distance perceptions may be important. The findings also suggest that, used in isolation, ‘cultural distance’ – as measured by the so called Kogut and Singh index – is a poor predictor of such perceptions.     

Home Alone: Children as Caretakers in León,Nicaragua

This article seeks to explore and understand the life situations of sibling caretakers in poor areas in León, Nicaragua. The every day lives for caretakers were studied through observations and interviews with children, informants and parents. The children themselves were satisfied and proud to be trusted as caretakers and felt useful in contributing to their families’ livelihood. However, in a life course perspective the caretaking role implies a narrowing of life options. Early on they seem to acquire essential life skills but as they grow older many are at risk of falling behind due to their marginalised situation and lack of basic education.     

A dynamic random-effects model for recovery of skin barrier function: evaluation of the efficacy of different skin care products

Apparently, the use of mathematical and statistical models to describe the structure and function of the skin barrier is rather limited. The skin barrier protects the body against uncontrolled loss of water and desiccation, and prevents environmental substances from entering the skin. A simple measure of the barrier function is the transepidermal water loss (TEWL), which is easy to measure. Healthy skin has low TEWL values, whereas various skin diseases result in high TEWL values and eventually in the development of dry skin. The use of skin care products can protect and prevent dry skin. In this study several different trial formulations are compared with respect to their abilities as skin care products. The study is performed as a longitudinal study on mice, where the skin barrier is broken by means of acetone and then treated with one of the formulations. We analysed the data by means of a semimechanistic random-effects model with similarities to pharmacokinetic models. In the model each formulation is characterized by two parameters: one that corresponds to the initial barrier restoration effect and one that corresponds to the elimination rate.     

Neighbourhood effects on young people's future living conditions: Longitudinal findings from Sweden

Brännström L. Neighbourhood effects on young people's future living conditions: longitudinal findings from Sweden Using extensive longitudinal data for three Swedish birth cohorts born in the late 1970s, this study asked whether the social characteristics of the neighbourhood affect future outcomes that are important for their living conditions (labour‐market participation, economic hardship and criminality). To assist decision‐making about the balance between area‐targeted policies and wider form of social interventions at the individual level, this study also assessed whether the estimated impact of neighbourhood context has any bearing on the effect of preventive interventions directed at distressed neighbourhoods. The overall findings suggest that there is no clear evidence that the impact of neighbourhood varies sufficiently between the different types of neighbourhoods when selection and other confounding factors have been taken into consideration. It is concluded that the estimated effect of neighbourhood on youth development does not underpin area‐targeted policies directed at distressed neighbourhoods.     

The employment service and vacancy durations

In the literature, there are few examples of studies analyzing the impact of labor market programs on vacancies. This article presents the results of a study of the impact of personnel increase at Swedish employment offices on vacancy durations. The evaluation method in the study is quasi-experimental. The main results of the study are as follows: (a) The increase of employment office staff members reduced their vacancy durations by approximately 2 days, and the probability that a vacancy is cancelled from the register is 1.17 times higher for the program offices; and (b) this effect is too small for the increase of staff members to represent a socially efficient use of resources and for a positive outcome in a public finance context.     

Intercourse debut age: poor resources, problem behavior, or romantic appeal? a population-based longitudinal study

The most important predictors of early intercourse debut are reported to be poor social resources and early developing problem behaviors. In this study we have a new, additional emphasis on variables related to self-concept and social acceptance. In a population-based longitudinal study, 1399 Norwegians were followed over a 7-year span. We analyzed data using multivariate Cox-regression techniques. Early intercourse debut was part of a broader spectrum of problem behaviors, including early alcohol intoxication and early-developing conduct problems. A new finding was that a positive self-concept in the domain of romantic appeal was also a strong predictor, but only for boys. We suggest that the findings may have important implications for prevention and more research should be conducted along this line.     

Asymptotic spacings theory with applications to the two-sample problem

The asymptotic distribution theory of test statistics which are functions of spacings is studied here. Distribution theory under appropriate close alternatives is also derived and used to find the locally most powerful spacing tests. For the two-sample problem, which is to test if two independent samples are from the same population, test statistics which are based on “spacing-frequencies” (i.e., the numbers of observations of one sample which fall in between the spacings made by the other sample) are utilized. The general asymptotic distribution theory of such statistics is studied both under the null hypothesis and under a sequence of close alternatives.