WHERE ARE THE ECONOMISTS WHO PUBLISH? PUBLICATION CONCENTRATION AND RANKINGS IN EUROPE BASED ON CUMULATIVE PUBLICATIONS

We measure the past production of research articles by current members of European economics institutions. All EconLit journals are used, weighted to reflect differences in quality. Both a long (1971–2000) and a short (1996–2000) time period are considered. We also provide production indices that take into account the authors' career length. The total output of each research center is measured as well as its production per member. The focus is on 600 centers from eighteen European countries (EU 14, Israel, Norway, Switzerland, and Turkey). European centers are compared to the top sixty U.S. economics departments. Statistics regarding the concentration of article production across researchers, institutions, and countries are provided, as well as on publication habits. (JEL: A14, L11, R32)     

Bayesian borrowing from historical control data in a vaccine efficacy trial

In the context of vaccine efficacy trial where the incidence rate is very low and a very large sample size is usually expected, incorporating historical data into a new trial is extremely attractive to reduce sample size and increase estimation precision. Nevertheless, for some infectious diseases, seasonal change in incidence rates poses a huge challenge in borrowing historical data and a critical question is how to properly take advantage of historical data borrowing with acceptable tolerance to between-trials heterogeneity commonly from seasonal disease transmission. In this article, we extend a probability-based power prior which determines the amount of information to be borrowed based on the agreement between the historical and current data, to make it applicable for either a single or multiple historical trials available, with constraint on the amount of historical information to be borrowed. Simulations are conducted to compare the performance of the proposed method with other methods including modified power prior (MPP), meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) prior and the commensurate prior methods. Furthermore, we illustrate the application of the proposed method for trial design in a practical setting.     

Me,an entrepreneur? Entrepreneurial identity,outgroup social identification,attitudes and intentions towards business creation / ¿Yo,un emprendedor? Identidad emprendedora,identificación social con el exogrupo,actitudes e intenciones respecto a la creación de empresas

This article aims to further investigate the role of social identity processes in the formation of entrepreneurial intentions (EI). We investigate the general hypothesis that social identification with entrepreneurs is positively associated with EI and its antecedents such as attitude, perceived social norm (subjective norm) and perceived behavioural control (self-efficacy), considered as mediators. In particular, the role of three dimensions of social identification (affects, ties and self-typicality) was empirically studied in a sample of students that answered a questionnaire. Results from regression analyses show that the affects dimension is positively linked to attitude and the perceived social norm, which mediate its association with EI. Likewise, the ties dimension appears to relate positively to EI and attitude, the latter mediating the relationship with the former. Results regarding the self-typicality dimension are mixed (significant association with perceived behavioural control, non-significant association with EI). The discussion addresses the importance of social identity processes in EI formation, study limitations, as well as possible future studies of both theoretical and practical relevance.     

Bias-reduced extreme quantile estimators of Weibull tail-distributions

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating an extreme quantile of a Weibull tail-distribution. The new extreme quantile estimator has a reduced bias compared to the more classical ones proposed in the literature. It is based on an exponential regression model that was introduced in Diebolt et al. [2007. Bias-reduced estimators of the Weibull-tail coefficient. Test, to appear]. The asymptotic normality of the extreme quantile estimator is established. We also introduce an adaptive selection procedure to determine the number of upper order statistics to be used. A simulation study as well as an application to a real data set is provided in order to prove the efficiency of the above-mentioned methods.     

DOES THE GREAT RECESSION IMPLY THE END OF THE GREAT MODERATION? INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

In this paper we examine whether or not the Great Recession had a temporary or permanent effect on output growth volatility after years of low macroeconomic volatility since the early eighties. Based on break detection methods applied to a set of advanced countries, our empirical results do not give evidence to the end of the Great Moderation period but rather that the Great Recession is characterized by a dramatic short‐lived effect on the output growth but not on its volatility. We show that neglecting the breaks both in mean and in variance can have large effects on output volatility modeling based on GARCH specifications. (JEL E32, C22, O40)