International and internal migration decision making: a value-expectancy based analytical framework of intentions to move from a rural Philippine province

"The study compares determinants of internal and international migration intentions, drawing upon interview data from a sample of adults in Ilocos Norte, a largely rural province in the Philippines. A regression model is applied to test the relative determinants of intentions to migrate to Manila and to Hawaii. The study is based on a value-expectancy model of migration decision making. The results document the importance of subjective expectations related to the attainment of different values and goals in Manila and Hawaii."     

Rural development and urban migration: can we keep them down on the farm?

This study tests the hypothesis that rural development projects and programs reduce rural-urban migration. The author presents various factors in the social theories of migration, including those relating to origin and destination, intervening obstacles such as distance, and personal factors. 3 economic models of migration are the human capital or cost-benefit approach, the expected income model, and the intersectoral linkage model. Empirical studies of migration indicate that: 1) rural areas with high rates of out-migration tend to have high population densities or high ratios of labor to arable land, 2) distance inhibits migration, 3) rural-urban migration is positively correlated with family income level, and 4) selectivity differences in socioeconomic status between migrants and nonmigrants often are grouped into development packages which might include irrigation, new varieties of seed, subsidized credit, increased extension, and improved marketing arrangements. The migration impacts of some of these efforts are described: 1) land reform usually is expected to slow rural out-migration because it normally increases labor utilization in rural areas, but this is a limited effect, 2) migration effects of the Green Revolution technology are mainly in rural-rural migration, and 3) agricultural mechanization may stimulate rural-urban migration in the long run. Development of rural social services migh have various effects on rural-urban migration. Better rural education, which improves the chances of urban employment, will stimulate rural-urban migration, while successful rural family planning programs will have a negative effect in the long run as there will be reduced population pressure on arable land. Better rural health services might reduce the incentive for rural-urban migration as well. It is suggested that governments reconsider policies which rely on rural development to curb rural-urban migration and alleviate problems of urban poverty and underemployment.     

The aims of population statistics and demographic research

A detailed program for the improvement of population statistics and for the development of demographic research is presented, with particular reference to the USSR. Topics covered include global and regional population projections, special surveys on demographic behavior, and the need for improvements in migration data.     

Toward a Copernican revolution in our thinking about life's beginning and life's end

This article attempts to narrow the range of moral disagreement surrounding the issue of abortion by exploring current assumptions and comparing thinking about abortion with our thinking about death. Focusing the abortion debate on questions such as when life begins or whether the fetus is a person has thrust us into scientific uncertainty and definitional disputes. It is suggested that the focus of the debate should be shifted to the issue of whether the fetus merits our protection. Moral judgements regarding personhood represent a complex balancing that involves weighing our interests in protecting an entity against the loss to our liberty implied by such protection. This approach requires a Copernican revolution in our thinking about abortion, in which 3 major factors--the nature of the entity, the impact of its mistreatment on our broadest human interests, and the specific implications of its protection for our liberty--are considered in a relational whole. Similarly, the continuum in the dying process requires us to determine which aspect of human death will be recognized as morally significant. Since determinations with regard to life and death are arbitrary, societies must select their own moral values and take responsibility for collective moral decisions. It is concluded that the US Supreme Court decision that allows free access to abortion in the 1st trimester, imposes a requirement of medical supervision in the 2nd, and prohibits abortion in most cases in the 3rd trimester represents a reasonable response to the moral issues at stake.     

Federal statistics in a complex environment: the case of the 1980 census

A discussion of the 1980 U.S. census is presented. The authors suggest that the taking of a national census is not just a statistical exercise, but an exercise involving ethics, epistemology, law, and politics. They contend that conducting a national census can be defined as an ill-structured problem in which the various complexities imposed by multidisciplinarity cannot be separated. "The 1980 census is discussed as an ill-structured problem, and a method for treating such problems is presented, within which statistical information is only one component."     

The use of statistics to examine the association between fluoride in drinking water and cancer death rates

"The basis of statistical tests of significance of association between fluoride level in drinking water and cancer death rates is discussed. Reference is made to two reported studies in each of which cancer death rates of a number of [U.S.] cities were used. It is argued that between city variation should be taken into account when performing tests of significance. In one of the two studies this was done informally; in the other between city variation was ignored."     

An analysis of indirect mortality estimation

Abstract In this paper the robustness of Brass's child-survivorship indirect mortality estimation technique is investigated. An analytical method is developed for studying the error or bias caused in indirect mortality estimates by poor data, badly chosen model functions, and specific demographic assumptions that are often violated in practice. The resulting analytical expressions give insight into the rationale of indirect methods, the conditions under which they are robust, and the magnitude of errors that occur when specific assumptions are violated.     

The use of traditional and modern methods of fertility control in Kinshasa, Zaire

Abstract The practice of post-partum abstinence has been a long-standing tradition in many societies of tropical Africa, yet recent research suggests an erosion of the taboo on post-partum sexual relations as a means of fertility control. The current study among women in the lower income groups in Kinshasa, Zaire, provides evidence of this. There is strong motivation toward child-spacing, as shown by 80 per cent of the women who reported to be currently practising some means of fertility control: 73 per cent with traditional methods, only 7 per cent with modern contraceptives. There appears to be some carry-over of traditional practice, in that abstinence is related to the age and nursing status of the last born child. However, the most widely practised method is withdrawal. This suggests a desire on the part of this population for alternatives to abstinence, an issue with important implications for future family planning programs in Zaire.     

A survey of work done by the China family planning association

The China Family Planning Association was set up in May 1980 as a nongovernmental organization under the leadership of the Communist Party of China. Funds come from the government, international organizations, and individual or community donations. 13 branches have been established so far. The Association has contributed to publicity, education, and research: members have given lectures on family planning, genetics, and population theory, and have helped develop contraceptives. The lectures on population problems have been published. In addition, the Association's periodical "Ren Sheng" is published bimonthly, and has a circulation of 125,000. Meeting have been convened for the exchange of information and experience among family planning workers. The Association organized tripartite seminars with IPPF and JOICFP in June and October, 1983. Under the auspices of the Association, 8 trainees have been sent to the David Owen Center in the United Kingdom for a Year's study, and 1 trainee was sent to the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. The Association was accepted as a full member of the IPPF at the conference held in Nairobi, Kenya, in November, 1983.