新经济的若干问题

为消除人们对新经济概念的误解,本文通过分析美国经济状况,讨论了四大经济问题：美国经济扩张、良性通胀、生产力恢复以及其他国家的新经济特征。     

Beyond Recovery From Trauma: Implications for Clinical Practice and Research

This article draws implications for clinicians working with survivors of major life crises in four general areas: the relation of psychological well-being, distress, and posttraumatic growth; conceptual issues in this type of clinical work; the process of encouraging growth in clients following traumatic events; and suggestions for additional research. Posttraumatic growth can be accompanied by an increase in well-being, but distress and growth may also coexist. Positive changes can occur in several domains, but many are likely to be phenomenological. Degree of change produced by clinical intervention may be limited in scope, but there clearly are some ways in which the clinician may make growth more likely for the client. Suggestions for future research include the call for longitudinal investigations, studies of rumination and responses of the social network, and the examination of potential gender differences in posttraumatic growth.     

Standardization as a Means for Globalizing a Commodity: The Case of Rapeseed in China*

Abstract Not all commodities are things, nor are all things available in society commodities. Then, what are commodities? Using the case of rapeseed and its products in China, this paper examines the role of grades and standards (G&S) in simultaneously determining the life of things as commodities and the position of humans as market participants. In the first section, we summarize our conceptual understandings of commodities. Next, the paper examines tests and trials to which rapeseed in China were subjected by the mid 1990s. We then discuss how G&S represent political processes among commodity chain actors for creating, legitimizing and maintaining the social relations between things and people. Lastly, we discuss our conclusion that the analysis of tests and trials helps us understand the process of commodification as simultaneous transformations of humans and things in a commodity chain while reorganizing linkages among these actors.     

A Comprehensive Model for Managing Credit Risk on Home Mortgage Portfolios*

Managing credit risk in financial institutions requires the ability to forecast aggregate losses on existing loans, predict the length of time that loans will be on the books before prepayment or default, analyze the expected performance of particular segments in the existing portfolio, and project payment patterns of new loans. Described in this paper are tools created for these functions in a large California financial institution. A forecasting model with Markovian structure and nonstationary transition probabilities is used to model the life of a mortgage. Logistic and regression models are used to estimate severity of losses. These models are integrated into a system that allows analysts and managers to depict the expected performance of individual loans and portfolio segments under different economic scenarios. With this information, analysts and managers can establish appropriate loss reserves, suggest pricing differentials to compensate for risk, and make strategic lending decisions.     

Surrendering the environment for capital gain and Olson’s group theory: A case study of the dissolution of housing co-operative societies in Hong Kong

This paper describes the rise of the co-operative housing of civil servants and its fall during the transition of Hong Kong from a British colony to a special administrative region of the People’s Republic of China. Olson’s group theory was adopted to explain the timing of the dissolution in a context of uncertainty in the property rights of land; the terms of civil service appointments; and the housing market. The size of the ownership body and the value of the land were evaluated as factors affecting dissolution decisions. It was found that in agreement with Olson’s theory, the number of members of the body had a statistically significant positive relationship with the life (between formation and dissolution) of the co-operative body. In addition, it was also found that factors that affected the opportunity cost of maintaining status quo, including the value of the land on which the co-op scheme sits and the real option value of redevelopment, had a significant impact on the timing of the dissolution of the co-op. The implications for using Olson’s theory were also discussed.     

Community and Individual Factors Associated with Cigarette Smoking Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men

Young men who have sex with men (YMSM) have higher rates of cigarette smoking than their heterosexual counterparts, yet few studies have examined factors associated with cigarette smoking among YMSM. The present study sought to understand how different types of gay community connection (i.e., gay community identification and involvement, gay bar/club attendance) were associated with smoking among YMSM recruited through venue-based sampling in Los Angeles, California (N = 526). Structural equation modeling was used to isolate direct and indirect effects of gay community connection on smoking through cognitive and psychological mediators (i.e., psychological distress, health values, internalized homophobia). Findings indicate YMSM cigarette smoking prevention and intervention must be tailored to address the direct and indirect influences of the gay community.     

An Integrative,Experiential Approach to Production Management Education

This paper addresses the important relationship between production and operations management (POM) and information technology. An approach to POM education is presented in which information technology is used to create an experiential learning environment that integrates the topics taught in POM courses. Results of an implementation of the proposed approach are presented and implications are discussed for POM education.     

Optimal Cost Sampling for Decision Making with Multiple Regression Models

This paper develops an explicit relationship between sample size, sampling error, and related costs for the application of multiple regression models in observational studies. Graphs and formulas for determining optimal sample sizes and related factors are provided to facilitate the application of the derived models. These graphs reveal that, in most cases, the imprecision of estimates and minimum total cost are relatively insensitive to increases in sample size beyond n=20. Because of the intrinsic variation of the regression model, even if larger samples are optimal, the relative change in the total cost function is small when the cost of imprecision is a quadratic function. A model-utility approach, however, may impose a lower bound on sample size that requires the sample size be larger than indicated by the estimation or cost-minimization approaches. Graphs are provided to illustrate lower-bound conditions on sample size. Optimal sample size in view of all considerations is obtained by the maximin criterion, the maximum of the minimum sample size for all approaches.