Judgmental Adjustments of Previously Adjusted Forecasts*

Forecasts are important components of information systems. They provide a means for knowledge sharing and thus have significant decision‐making impact. In many organizations, it is quite common for forecast users to receive predictions that have previously been adjusted by providers or other users of forecasts. Current work investigates some of the factors that may influence the size and propensity of further adjustments on already‐adjusted forecasts. Two studies are reported that focus on the potential effects of adjustment framing (Study 1) and the availability of explanations and/or original forecasts alongside the adjusted forecasts (Study 2). Study 1 provides evidence that the interval forecasts that are labeled as “adjusted” are modified less than the so‐called “original/unadjusted” predictions. Study 2 suggests that the provision of original forecasts and the presence of explanations accompanying the adjusted forecasts serve as significant factors shaping the size and propensity of further modifications. Findings of both studies highlight the importance of forecasting format and user perceptions with critical organizational repercussions.     

If You're so Smart,why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets

This paper provides an analysis of the asymptotic properties of Pareto optimal consumption allocations in a stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous consumers. In particular, we investigate the market selection hypothesis that markets favor traders with more accurate beliefs. We show that in any Pareto‐optimal allocation whether each consumer vanishes or survives is determined entirely by discount factors and beliefs. Whereas equilibrium allocations in economies with complete markets are Pareto optimal, our results characterize the limit behavior of these economies. We show that, all else equal, the market selects for consumers who use Bayesian learning with the truth in the support of their prior and selects among Bayesians according to the size of their parameter space. Finally, we show that in economies with incomplete markets, these conclusions may not hold. With incomplete markets, payoff functions can matter for long‐run survival, and the market selection hypothesis fails.     

LEVINE'S GERMAN TRADITION: Consolations for the Sociologist

In Visions of the Sociological Tradition Donald N. Levine presents a view of the German sociological tradition that emphasizes its origins in philosophical idealism. This paper discusses the implications of this, view for understanding the formation of sociology in Germany. The author suggests that Levine's account can be supplemented and strengthened by reconstructing the German tradition both as an effort to proceed without foundational philosophical systems and as an outgrowth of social economics and the historical school of political economy. Most importantly, Levine shares the call for sociology as the site of dialogue with that reconstructed German tradition.     

Testing non-inferiority and superiority for two endpoints for several treatments with a control

Some multiple comparison procedures are described for multiple armed studies. The procedures are appropriate for testing all hypotheses for comparing two endpoints and multiple test arms to a single control group, for example three different fixed doses compared to a placebo. The procedure assumes that among the two endpoints, one is designated as a primary endpoint such that for a given treatment arm, no hypothesis for the secondary endpoint can be rejected unless the hypothesis for the primary endpoint was rejected. The procedures described control the family-wise error rate in the strong sense at a specified level α.     

Modeling repeated measures of dichotomous data: Testing whether the within-person trajectory of change varies across levels of between-person factors

In this paper, we consider the following question for the analysis of data obtained in longitudinal panel designs: How should repeated-measures data be modeled and interpreted when the outcome or dependent variable is dichotomous and the objective is to determine whether the within-person rate of change over time varies across levels of one or more between-person factors? Standard approaches address this issue by means of generalized estimating equations or generalized linear mixed models with logistic links. Using an empirical example and simulated data, we show (1) that cross-level product terms from these models can produce misleading results with respect to whether the within-person rate of change varies across levels of a dichotomous between-person factor; and (2) that subgroup differences in the rate of change should be assessed on an additive scale (using group differences in the effects of predictors on the probability of disease) rather than on a multiplicative scale (using group differences in the effects of predictors on the odds of disease). Because usual approaches do not provide a significance test for whether the rate of additive change varies across levels of a between-person factor, sample differences in the rate of additive change may be due to sampling error. We illustrate how standard software can be used to estimate and test whether additive changes vary across levels of a between-person factor.     

Anna Meeuwisese,Roberto Scaramuzzino (eds.), Europeanization in Sweden: Opportunities and Challenges for Civil Society Organizations

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations -     

How many Australian veterans are homeless? Reporting prevalence findings and method from a national study

This article presents findings from an Australian study of veteran homelessness (Hilferty, Katz et al. 2019). The AHURI Inquiry into Homelessness Amongst Australian Veterans was funded by the Department of Veterans' Affairs (DVA) to estimate the number of homeless veterans and to examine veterans' pathways into homelessness, service usage patterns and ways that service responses may be improved. This article presents the prevalence findings and describes the method employed by the research team. Drawing on primary data and extrapolating results to a larger sample of veterans, the researchers estimate that approximately 5,800 contemporary veterans experience homelessness over a 12‐month period in Australia. This estimate – the first ever to be based on primary data – indicates that veteran homelessness is a much larger problem than previously estimated and deserves priority attention from policymakers and sectoral representatives.     

Cultural Studies and Deleuze-Guattari,Part 2: From Affect to Conjunctures†

This paper considers the state of the ‘field’ of affect studies and its development – partly through the involvement of one of its authors – over the course of decades. It argues that rather than identifying affect as the ‘other’ of signification and representation, thus ‘subtracting’ it from the conjuncture, one should understand the question of affect to point to the multiplicity of forms of sign behaviours – or, better, of forms of expression or collective assemblages of enunciation (in the terms of Deleuze and Guattari) that constitute a conjuncture in all its complexity. This article attempts to map this multiplicity by refining and expanding Guattari’s ‘mixed semiotics’. Finally, it offers a brief example of how such multiplicities (and their resulting hybridities) might be used to compare the ‘affective topographies’ and structures of feelings that have differentially enabled oppositional movements in the 1960s and the current moment.