投资者信心和中国宏观经济波动——基于MIDAS混频模型

将投资者信心指数引入MIDAS混频模型之中,可以考察新冠疫情背景下投资者信心对于中国宏观经济波动的影响。基于投资者信心指数和“三驾马车”对我国季度GDP增长率进行预测,通过实证发现:引入投资者信心指数的MIDAS混频模型在预测精准度方面和基准模型进行比较,预测精准度高于未加入投资者信心的模型,均方根残差比值更小;在多元MIDAS混频模型之中,加入投资者信心指数的回归模型对我国GDP的实时预报和短期预测结果更加稳定,可为决策者提供更加精确的参考区间;宏观经济的波动对投资者信心指数变化反应,和投资、消费和进出口相比是最灵敏的。这为定量追踪宏观经济波动提供了一个新的视角。     

平角涡虫(Planocera reticulata)脑神经节胆碱酯酶的组织化学定位

研究了平角涡虫（Ｐｌａｎｏｃｅｒａｒｅｔｉｃｕｌａｔａ）脑神经节胆碱酯酶的组织化学定位．结果表明,胆碱酯酶阳性细胞分别分布于脑神经节的吻端腹侧面、前腹侧面、中央腹侧面和后背侧面的细胞层中,各阳性细胞在脑神经节中均为左右对称分布．前腹侧面阳性细胞的突起向背内侧延伸,经交叉后进入对侧纤维网中;中央腹侧面阳性细胞的突起向中线延伸形成联系;后背侧阳性细胞的突起向腹外侧延伸进入同侧纤维网中．神经节中央的神经纤维网中具有丰富的阳性纤维,前部反应较强,后端反应较弱．由脑神经节发出的各神经干均呈胆碱酯酶阳性反应．     

Going to Pieces: Paul Monette and the Fragments of the Tribe

Author of the highly acclaimed Borrowed Time: An AIDS Memoir (1988) and winner of the 1992 National Book Award for his autobiography Becoming a Man: Half a Life Story, Paul Monette died of complications from AIDS in Los Angeles on February 12, 1995. His most recent work, Last Watch of the Night: Essays Too Personal and Otherwise (1994), is his third volume in a trilogy of autobiographical writing on growing up gay, coming-out, and living with AIDS. A graduate of Phillips Academy and Yale University, Monette received a number of awards for his writing and his work as an outspoken voice in the battle against AIDS, including the National Book Award, three Lambda Literary awards, the PEN Center West Freedom to Write Award, and three honorary doctorate degrees, from Wesleyan University, the City University of New York, and the State University of New York at Oswego. A memorial service was held for Monette on Sunday, February 19, 1995, at the Directors Guild of America on Sunset Boulevard in Los Angeles. Paul Monette was 49.     

Sensitivity of the Optimum to Perturbations of the Profit or Weight of an Item in the Binary Knapsack Problem

In the binary single constraint Knapsack Problem, denoted KP, we are given a knapsack of fixed capacity c and a set of n items. Each item j, j = 1,...,n, has an associated size or weight w_j and a profit p_j. The goal is to determine whether or not item j, j = 1,...,n, should be included in the knapsack. The objective is to maximize the total profit without exceeding the capacity c of the knapsack. In this paper, we study the sensitivity of the optimum of the KP to perturbations of either the profit or the weight of an item. We give approximate and exact interval limits for both cases (profit and weight) and propose several polynomial time algorithms able to reach these interval limits. The performance of the proposed algorithms are evaluated on a large number of problem instances.     

Buchbesprechungen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Dual Career Couples als eine Variante von Work-Life-Integration

Dual Career Couples as a form of work-life-integrationThe author discusses the situation of dual career couples, when both are university graduates following an own career. Basing on a respective publication she delineates the current, mostly American research and reports on several German research projects, which endeavour to analyse the relation between gender and inequality in dual career couples.     

Von der Supervision zur Mediation und zurück

From supervision to mediation and vice versaMediation in organizations becomes more and more important because of increasing conflicts. The question is, which competencies of the counsellor are necessary, and above all, whether mediation is a particular method. The author explains the method of mediation and illustrates his concept of “patchwork-mediation”. This procedure allows to build a bridge between supervision and mediation.     

Ebert. Wolfgang (2001): Systemtheorien in der Supervision — Bestandsaufnahme und Perspektiven

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

经济收敛理论与检验方法研究综述

在大量文献研究的基础上,对收敛问题的产生及收敛概念的发展作了全面概括,并对绝对收敛、条件收敛、俱乐部收敛和σ收敛作了深入辨析,对各种识别方法作了全面归纳。归纳了对世界大多数国家和地区数据所作识别的结果。还从收敛理论与传统理论的冲突与协调方面作了深入分析。最后对近年收敛研究的深化与扩展研究的趋势作了概括。