Anticipated demographic development in Poland in the light of the new demographic projections

The authors present the results of revised population projections for Poland for 1985 based on the final results of the 1978 population census. Assumptions made in previous projections are critically reviewed, as are the population estimates on which those projections were based     

Trends in marriage and divorce in Peninsular Malaysia

Summary Median age at marriage for women has risen sharply for each of the three major ethnic groups - Malays, Chinese and Indians, in Peninsular Malaysia since 1957. The sharpest rise has been recorded for Malays and Indians, whose median age at marriage was barely over 17 in 1957. A shortage of potential husbands in the traditionally sanctioned ages contributed to the rise for Malays and Indians, but was probably not the paramount reason; average age differences between the spouses narrowed, but median age at marriage for men actually rose. During the same period, the previously extremely high divorce rates amongst Malays have fallen sharply, though wide inter-state differences remain. The sharp changes in marriage patterns reflect, and in turn are partly responsible for, far-reaching social and economic changes. They have profoundly affected fertility levels and patterns, as well as intra-familial relationships.     

The Consequences of Validated and Self-Reported Voting Measures

This paper reports on the results of validation of the self-reportedregistration status and voting behavior of respondents in the1976 and 1978 American National Election Studies. The resultsindicate about one in seven of the respondents misreported theirregistration status or voting behavior. Comparative analysesare conducted using simple regression models to see if differencesin their explanatory power arise using validated and self-reporteddependent variables. The results show that there are no majorchanges in the fundamental nature of basic relationships thathave been observed since the first surveys were conducted. Analysisof the effects of overreported participation on estimates ofthe partisan division of the vote in three sets of subnationalcontests reveals a likely "bandwagan" effect. . Portions of the data utilized in this article were made availableby the Inter-university Consortium for Political and SocialResearch. The data for the 1976 and 1978 American National ElectionStudies were originally collected by the Center for PoliticalStudies of the Institute for Social Research. The Universityof Michigan, under a grant from the National Science Foundation.Neither the original collectors of the data nor the Consortiumbear any responsibility for the analyses or interpretationspresented here. The comments of an anonymous reviewer, whichresulted in a fruitful extension of the analysis, are gratefullyacknowledged.     

Comment on 'facts and artifacts in the study of intra-uterine mortality: a reconsideration from pregnancy histories' by henri léridon(1)

Abstract Extract I have suggested that at a given birth order the probability of having a further pregnancy is greater when the last pregnancy had been spontaneously aborted than when it resulted in a birth.(2) Léridon,(3)in the course of a valuable paper on foetal wastage, presents data which, according to him, impugn my suggestion. I would like to question his claim.     

A future for the corporate planner?

Although not initiated by the event, it seems appropriate that this article is written on the tenth anniversary of the founding of The Society for Long Range Planning. It is entirely coincidental that Ansoff's book ‘Corporate Strategy’, which has evolved into the standard work on corporate planning, also appeared about a decade ago. This fortuitous coincidence has been further emphasized by the recent publication of another book from the same authority which introduces an entirely new factor into the future prospects for corporate planners. An attempt is made here to assess its implications.     

International and internal migration decision making: a value-expectancy based analytical framework of intentions to move from a rural Philippine province

"The study compares determinants of internal and international migration intentions, drawing upon interview data from a sample of adults in Ilocos Norte, a largely rural province in the Philippines. A regression model is applied to test the relative determinants of intentions to migrate to Manila and to Hawaii. The study is based on a value-expectancy model of migration decision making. The results document the importance of subjective expectations related to the attainment of different values and goals in Manila and Hawaii."     

An analysis of indirect mortality estimation

Abstract In this paper the robustness of Brass's child-survivorship indirect mortality estimation technique is investigated. An analytical method is developed for studying the error or bias caused in indirect mortality estimates by poor data, badly chosen model functions, and specific demographic assumptions that are often violated in practice. The resulting analytical expressions give insight into the rationale of indirect methods, the conditions under which they are robust, and the magnitude of errors that occur when specific assumptions are violated.     

The use of traditional and modern methods of fertility control in Kinshasa, Zaire

Abstract The practice of post-partum abstinence has been a long-standing tradition in many societies of tropical Africa, yet recent research suggests an erosion of the taboo on post-partum sexual relations as a means of fertility control. The current study among women in the lower income groups in Kinshasa, Zaire, provides evidence of this. There is strong motivation toward child-spacing, as shown by 80 per cent of the women who reported to be currently practising some means of fertility control: 73 per cent with traditional methods, only 7 per cent with modern contraceptives. There appears to be some carry-over of traditional practice, in that abstinence is related to the age and nursing status of the last born child. However, the most widely practised method is withdrawal. This suggests a desire on the part of this population for alternatives to abstinence, an issue with important implications for future family planning programs in Zaire.