基于贝叶斯的Bootstrap置信区间

在许多领域中,Bootstrap成为一种数据处理的有效方法。很多情况下,模型中感兴趣的参数的置信区间难以构建,为了解决这一问题,文章提出了一个新的贝叶斯Bootstrap置信区间的估计量,并做了蒙特卡洛模拟比较,结果比经典区间估计方法和经典Bootstrap方法更优,并进行了实例分析。     

微技术传播对青年人信仰的影响研究

以微博和微信为代表的微技术深刻影响着青年人的思维方式、行为方式、价值方式。同时,微技术在传播信仰过程中改变了传统的信仰格局,打破了政治输入和输出的传统信仰架构。青年不但成为了微技术信仰语言的创造者,也有着强烈的信仰平等诉求。在微技术时代,实现信仰治理的优化刻不容缓。     

中国粮食生产潜能分析：一个基于“俱乐部 收敛”的视点

我国的粮食单产存在显著的地区差异,不同地区粮食单产的收敛分析有助于预测粮食生产潜能。对1980年至2012年全国30个省区市稻谷、玉米、小麦三种主粮单产数据的收敛分析发现,传统收敛β收敛与σ收敛的分析结果相互冲突,并且与现实不符。而俱乐部收敛分析发现,稻谷单产全国范围内趋于收敛;玉米单产同样在全国范围内收敛;但小麦单产则不存在总体收敛趋势,而是收敛于三个不同的俱乐部。进一步以“俱乐部”内最高单产为参照测算三种主粮历年的生产潜能,预测结果显示,实际产量与潜在产量的差距在不断缩小;三种主粮在2012年的潜在总产量为6.6万亿吨,仍比实际产量高26%;初步估计,未来10—20年之内,三种主粮的增产潜能会保持在10%以上。     

大数据研究经典的研读与批判—读维克托·迈尔 舍恩佰格《大数据时代》有感

作者在研读维克托·迈尔-舍恩佰格《大数据时代》后,对舍恩佰格的三个主要观点展开讨论并提出质疑,认为随机样本和全体数据同样需要,精确性和混杂性各有所用,相关关系离不开因果关系.文章还介绍了国外学者关于大数据伦理的讨论.     

"古文运动"与"新乐府运动"创作的致用务实精神

以韩、柳为代表的"古文运动"和以白居易为代表的"新乐府"运动是研究中唐文学的热点和不可能回避的内容,而发生在同时的"古文运动"和"新乐府运动"在精神实质上有无内在关系,这种内在关系是什么,各自以什么样的面目(文学理论、文学作品)来表现的?时代的政治革新要求与思想意识形态的振兴必然要反映到文学创作中来,中唐时期无论是对革新的希望、疾呼,还是革新失败后的苦闷、寻求;无论是哲学思想上的反思、复兴,还是文学思想上的追求,都充满了革新的要求和革新失败后鲜明的时代特色.因此,中晚唐文学都染上政治革新、儒学复兴、参与现实与文学创新的鲜明色彩."古文运动"、"新乐府运动"的出现,以险怪为特征的韩、孟诗派和以浅俗为标志的元、白诗派的崛起,刘、柳诗歌的深沉与孤峭,郊、岛之音的深入人心,司空图对王、孟、韦、柳的追踪,李商隐、杜牧、温庭筠的别开生面,晚唐皮日休、陆龟蒙、罗隐、聂夷中等人对时事的冷嘲热讽,只要认真清理其思想和文学渊源,都不难在中唐政治革新及其社会影响中找到关系,这种关系就是古代知识分子以拯救天下为已任的使命感和责任感的表现,具体讲,就是以文学干预现实的"致用务实"精神.     

Network domains in social networking sites: expectations,meanings, and social capital

This paper examines why the use of social networking sites (SNSs) leads to different results in cultivating bridging and bonding social capital for different groups of people. Based on in-depth interviews of 45 university students in Hong Kong, I find that Mainland Chinese students studying in Hong Kong actively use SNSs for seeking practical information about offline matters, and they obtain substantial enacted support from other Mainland students of the same university through SNS use. As a result, they accumulate both bridging and bonding social capital. Local Hong Kong students, however, use SNSs mainly for social information seeking and are only able to accrue limited bridging social capital through SNS use. Drawing on the theory of network domains, I argue that the different offline network structures in which students are located – namely, homogeneous and closed networks versus heterogeneous and open networks – explain this difference. Students with closed offline networks have defined expectations of online ties; they think of their online activities as practical and leading to real changes in their status among peers. Those with open networks have indefinite expectations of their online audience; thus, they interpret online activities differently, thinking of them as recreational, and they are playful in their online behaviour. These different outcomes of online activities consequently lead to diverse results in social capital accrual.     

Watching online videos interactively: the impact of media capabilities in Chinese Danmaku video sites

In China, the implementation of a Danmaku social media system to sustain and raise user interest in online video sites is an increasingly widespread phenomenon. Danmaku technology is used to display users’ messages in written text on the online video stream. Little is known about the effects of this form of interactive enhancement. The aim of this empirical study is to evaluate the evolving media capabilities of the Danmaku system and their effects on users’ perceptions of interactivity and their intentions to continue using Danmaku. We draw on media synchronicity theory and apply it to a stimulus-organism-response model. Using this framework, we hypothesize that the media capabilities of the Danmaku system, namely its transmission velocity, parallelism, symbol sets, rehearsability, and reprocessability, elicit increased interactivity, which influences users’ instantaneous intentions to share and to continue the use of the Danmaku system. The results showed that both users’ instantaneous intention to share and their intention to continue to use were significantly affected by the perceived interactivity. Unlike the results of previous studies, our findings showed that all five media capabilities positively affected the users’ perceptions of interactivity. The potential theoretical and practical implications of our findings are discussed.     

国内外郊野公园规划案例比较及展望

郊野公园是优化城市空间格局、供人们游憩和健身的重要载体。通过对国内外有代表性的郊野公园规划案例进行归纳总结,利用比较研究的方法对其发展概况、主要活动项目、配套设施建设与相关规划条例等方面进行比较分析,并从选址特征、规划实施与运营管理情况3个方面总结我国郊野公园在规划与管理上的缺点与不足,在此基础上,对我国郊野公园今后的建设与管控模式进行展望。     

文明网络环境对青少年健康成长的理性思考

网络环境对于青少年成长发展具有双重影响和作用,是一把双刃剑。分析网络对青少年健康成长负面影响的因素,找出应对的措施,是营造青少年健康成长的文明网络环境的必要条件;网络负面作用的扩大在一定程度上反映出我们教育的滞后,加强青少年网络素质教育,营造文明的网络环境尤为重要。