Increased risk of emergency department presentations for bronchiolitis in infants exposed to air pollution

Air pollution has been linked to an increased risk of several respiratory diseases in children, especially respiratory tract infections. The present study aims to evaluate the association between pediatric emergency department (PED) presentations for bronchiolitis and air pollution. PED presentations due to bronchiolitis in children aged less than 1 year were retrospectively collected from 2007 to 2018 in Padova, Italy, together with daily environmental data. A conditional logistic regression based on a time-stratified case-crossover design was performed to evaluate the association between PED presentations and exposure to NO₂, PM2.5, and PM10. Models were adjusted for temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, and public holidays. Delayed effects in time were evaluated using distributed lag non-linear models. Odds ratio for lagged exposure from 0 to 14 days were obtained. Overall, 2251 children presented to the PED for bronchiolitis. Infants’ exposure to higher concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 in the 5 days before the presentation to the PED increased the risk of accessing the PED by more than 10%, whereas high concentrations of NO₂ between 2 and 12 days before the PED presentation were associated with an increased risk of up to 30%. The association between pollutants and infants who required hospitalization was even greater. A cumulative effect of NO₂ among the 2 weeks preceding the presentation was also observed. In summary, PM and NO₂ concentrations are associated with PED presentations and hospitalizations for bronchiolitis. Exposure of infants to air pollution could damage the respiratory tract mucosa, facilitating viral infections and exacerbating symptoms.     

Framing socioecological complexity: The long-term evolution of multiple dimensions of desertification risk in Italy

Desertification risk depends on the interplay of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers, among which climate change, soil depletion, landscape modifications, and biodiversity decline are key factors of change in Southern Europe. The present study introduces a diachronic analysis of desertification risk in Italy adopting a multidimensional approach based on four dimensions (ecological, economic, demographic, and administrative) assessed at three dates (1961, 1991, and 2011). These risk components were evaluated separately in Southern Italy, a formerly affected region (sensu United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification), and Northern/Central Italy, a nonaffected region in the country. All risk measures document how the divide between affected and nonaffected regions in Italy has gradually reduced. Because of local warming and rising human pressure, Northern Italy has recently displayed a level of desertification risk close to those observed in Southern Italy over the last 30 years. These results suggest a thorough revision of the national classification of risky areas, that may inform more specific mitigation and adaptation policies responding effectively to recent socioenvironmental trends and local (economic) dynamics. The intrinsic system's evolution observed at both regional and national level in Italy may be generalized to a broader European context. Our work finally documents the appropriateness of a multidimensional definition of desertification risk grounded on the joint analysis of ecological, demographic, economic, and administrative indicators. A comprehensive knowledge of socioeconomic patterns and processes of change contributes to more precise scenario modeling and design of integrated strategies mitigating desertification risk.     

Re-randomization tests as sensitivity analyses to confirm immunological noninferiority of an investigational vaccine: Case study

Here we present as case study how re-randomization tests were performed in two randomized, controlled clinical trials as sensitivity analyses, as recommended by the United States Food and Drug Administration in the context of adaptive randomization. This was done to confirm primary conclusions on immunological noninferiority of an investigational new fully liquid presentation of a quadrivalent cross-reacting material conjugate meningococcal vaccine (MenACWY-CRM), over its licensed lyophilized/liquid presentation. In two phase 2b studies (Study #1: NCT03652610; Study #2: NCT03433482), noninferiority of the fully liquid presentation of MenACWY-CRM to the licensed presentation was assessed and demonstrated for immune responses against meningococcal serogroup A (MenA), the only vaccine component modified from lyophilized to liquid in the new presentation. The original vaccine assignment algorithm, with a minimization procedure accounting for center or center within age strata, was used to re-randomize participants belonging to the fully liquid and licensed vaccine groups while keeping antibody responses, covariates and entry order as observed. Test statistics under re-randomization were generated according to the ANCOVA model used in the primary analysis. To confirm immunological noninferiority following re-randomization, the corresponding p-values had to be <0.025. For both studies and all primary objective evaluations, the re-randomization p-values were well below 0.025 (0.0004 for Study #1; 0.0001 for the two co-primary endpoints in Study #2). Re-randomization tests performed to comply with a regulatory request confirmed the primary conclusions of immunological noninferiority for the MenA of the fully liquid compared to the licensed vaccine presentation.     

A COVINDEX based on a GAM beta regression model with an application to the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

Statistical Methods & Applications - Detecting changes in COVID-19 disease transmission over time is a key indicator of epidemic growth. Near real-time monitoring of the pandemic growth is...     

Education and Life Satisfaction in Relation to the Probability of Social Trust: a Conceptual Framework and Empirical Analysis

We employ cross-sectional microdata from 2010 through 2012 collected by the Italian National Institute of Statistics to investigate the proposed conceptual framework regarding the joint relationship between education, life satisfaction and the probability of social trust. The analysis has been carried out using two alternative specifications of the logit model: parametric and semiparametric. Our findings suggest that (a) both modelling methods that we utilise yield consistent results in terms of the positive effects of education and life satisfaction on social trust; (b) for unsatisfied individuals, social trust is generally low and largely unresponsive to the individual’s education level, whereas for ‘sufficiently satisfied’ individuals, social trust increases strongly with education; (c) there are some gender differences in the joint relationship between education, life satisfaction and social trust and (d) the parametric approach tends to mask some interesting patterns that are captured by the semiparametric specification. This finding implies that the parametric approach leads to a biased interpretation of the results, with an apparent failure of some of the assumptions made in the conceptual framework.     

The Place of Construction in Sociological Realism

In the contemporary epistemological debate on social reality, characterized by the crisis of post‐modern theories and the emergence of new forms of realism, are there any approaches not acknowledging some specific ontological character to the construction of social objects? The question is apparently rhetorical, but the implication of this problem are not obvious. In the sociological literature the opposition between reality and construction is not clearly defined. Sometimes it is considered a dichotomy, in other situations the synthesis of alternative theses in a dialectical horizon. The more systematic attempt considers reality and construction as analytical macro‐dimensions where the relation between social ontology and epistemology operates. From this stance, the acknowledgement of the role of social construction in a wider realist horizon is the true overtaking of postmodern philosophy. If it is true that facts exist beyond representations, it is also true that representations themselves have a specific effect on reality, who continually re‐structures itself around specific relations of emergent power. Stating that reality is socially constructed is an evident limit of postmodern theories. On the other hand, stating that only facts exist constitute an impoverishment of realism and its replacement in neo‐positivism. Social phenomena are real because they are based on specific properties of the inter‐subjective construction of social reality. This thesis represents the revitalization of an advanced, anti‐positivistic realism and the definition of the specificity of social objects. The aim of this essay is to search for a specific place of construction within the development of realist social ontology.     

A comparison of approaches for estimating the effect of women's education on the probability of using modern contraceptive methods in Malawi

The aim of this study is to estimate the effect of education on the probability of married Malawian women using modern contraceptive methods by accounting for both observed and unobserved confounders. We conduct a sensitivity analysis and compare the results of naive models with instrumental variable models to account for the potential endogeneity of education. Our findings demonstrate conflicting results between the two modelling approaches. The naive models report smaller education effects on the probability of using modern contraceptive methods compared to instrumental variable models. We also find that by relaxing the functional form assumption on the effect of continuous covariates, using a flexible instrumental variable model, the education's effect follows a positive, nonlinear pattern. This finding is not observed with a classic instrumental variable model.     

Preverbal Infants' Ability to Encode the Outcome of Distributive Actions

This research examined whether 10‐month‐old infants expect agents to perform equal distribution of resources. In Experiment 1, infants saw a distributor performing either an equal distribution where one strawberry was given to each of two recipients, or an unequal distribution that favored one of the recipients. Infants looked longer at the unequal test event, suggesting that they expected the strawberries to be distributed equally. In Experiment 2, the potential recipients were replaced with inanimate objects to rule out a lower‐level alternative explanation of the results in Experiment 1 based on symmetric movement of the distributor. Infants' looking times did not reveal a preference for one of the two outcomes of the test events (i.e., symmetric or asymmetric movement). Experiment 3 controlled for the role of the distributive action, that is, here the distributors only removed barriers revealing strawberries that the recipients already had. No preference was observed when an equal or unequal initial allocation of resources was revealed. Experiment 4 assessed whether infants relied on affiliative information provided by the distributor's movements. The distributor made the same movements as in Experiment 1, but without distributing any strawberries, and no difference in looking times was observed. These findings support the view that preverbal infants expect agents to behave according to a simple principle: Resources are to be distributed equally among equivalent recipients. We discuss the possible links between such reactions and the emergence of an early sense of fairness.     

Are We Educating Creative Professionals? The Results of Some Experiments on the Education of Social Work Students in Italy

Creativity is a competence crucial for the practice of social work. In particular, it is associated with a greater ability to solve complex problems and to learn, and it is considered to be an integral element of the professional identity of social workers. Nevertheless, in the past 20 years, neoliberal policies and bureaucratization have promoted models of education focused more on technical skills than on imaginative and ideational capacities. This article presents the results of two experiments conducted to determine the effects on creativity and imagination of the technical education of social workers. The results show that creativity is not a variable independent of the type of education delivered to students and that educational programmes which emphasise only the technical dimension of social work can have a direct influence on the creative abilities of students. It is therefore necessary to strike the right balance between education aimed at the acquisition of technical skills and education that promotes creativity.     

BIG DATA AND BIG CITIES: THE PROMISES AND LIMITATIONS OF IMPROVED MEASURES OF URBAN LIFE

New, “big data” sources allow measurement of city characteristics and outcome variables at higher collection frequencies and more granular geographic scales than ever before. However, big data will not solve large urban social science questions on its own. Big urban data has the most value for the study of cities when it allows measurement of the previously opaque, or when it can be coupled with exogenous shocks to people or place. We describe a number of new urban data sources and illustrate how they can be used to improve the study and function of cities. We first show how Google Street View images can be used to predict income in New York City, suggesting that similar imagery data can be used to map wealth and poverty in previously unmeasured areas of the developing world. We then discuss how survey techniques can be improved to better measure willingness to pay for urban amenities. Finally, we explain how Internet data is being used to improve the quality of city services. (JEL R1, C8, C18)