Inflation projections for monetary policy decision making

Many central banks set inflation targets over the medium term and inflation projections are a key input for monetary policy decision making. In this paper, we present the procedures used by the Spanish Central Bank staff to project consumer price inflation. We also provide some illustrations of their policy uses, such as fan charts, deflation probabilities and the monitoring of inflation targets.     

Improving and measuring transparency in NGOs: A disclosure index for activities and projects

Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are established not with the aim of making profits but rather to provide social values by implementing different projects and activities. Transmitting complete information about these projects to society is a key element of transparency, as they operate within an atmosphere of public trust. Although there is a large body of literature on transparency in NGOs from a global perspective, very little research has been conducted on transparency within the area of projects and activities. This study takes a deeper look at this line and contributes to the literature on transparency in NGOs by proposing an index to measure the information transparency of the projects implemented by these organizations. The index captures three dimensions of the information about the projects (technical, financial, and scope) and makes it possible to: analyze the level of transparency of the portfolio of projects, detect the specific aspects that could be improved in each organization, and carry out comparisons among organizations.     

Analysis of social innovation on social networking services

ABSTRACT

Social network services are allowing more social connectivity and making possible sharing information and knowledge of a different nature. This article analyses if social workers related to active social policies from Malaga province (Spain) are using social network services to share information and knowledge and if there is a mirror between online and offline relationships. Since it is an experimental model, through virtual ethnography and through social network analysis methodology, we observed the presence, connectivity and analysed the structure of relationships that keep 235 professionals from 52 organizations in Facebook®. Moreover, the model uses the statistical technique of modularity for detecting online communities, which are compared with distribution of professionals in their organizations. Results show how social network services applied to social intervention are massively and frequently used by professionals. On the other hand, the detected communities reflect existence of analogy between online and offline relationships. The online structure shows a high degree of cohesion and how certain professionals have higher capacity of influence and diffusion depending on position in the online structure. It argues about the opportunity to incorporate social network services towards social intervention as a manner of social innovation to improve cooperation and diffusion of information and knowledge.     

Portuguese Scientists’ Migration: a study on the 2008 crisis aftermath

In the economic and social aftermath of the 2008 crisis there has been an important and growing new wave of highly qualified Portuguese emigration comprising scientists. No or very few public policies have been designed to reverse this phenomenon, risking the consequences of brain drain. International literature argues that professional reasons are central to scientists’ decision to migrate, even after the 2008 crisis. Spending some time in a foreign country to study, research, or teach, is perceived as a common step in an individual academic trajectory and an advantage for a successful professional career in academia. It is also encouraged by European Union policies. Twelve individual portraits of Portuguese scientists living in central Europe reveal how important other factors are to the migration decision‐making process. These factors include the economic crisis, student mobility programmes, and the current Portuguese scientific system revision.     

Unequal partners in crime: masters,slaves and free people of color in Santo Domingo,c.1600–1650

In the early seventeenth century, important socioeconomic changes in the Spanish colony of Hispaniola brought about substantial shifts in race relations between white residents and peoples of African descent, who were enslaved and free. As the plantation system declined precipitously, white members of the Spanish elite started envisioning new roles for enslaved laborers, which included enrolling these enslaved peoples in their own intrigues against other elites. This cooperation led people in bondage to carry out violent attacks and assassination plots against other members of the white colonial society. People of African descent took advantage of these collaborations as an opportunity to advance their own interests within the community. Nevertheless, people of African descent faced fierce and often violent backlash if they acted of their own accord.     

Communication and representation of risk in health crises: the influence of framing and group identity / Comunicación en crisis sanitarias y representación del riesgo. La influencia del framing y la identidad grupal

Based on the Social Representations Theory (SRT) applied to the social construction of risk and the role played by group identities, this study examines the construction of risk created by the mass media in health epidemics. An experimental design with split-ballot questionnaire and 319 participants was used in which message framing (human interest vs. attribution of responsibility) and proximity (high vs. low) were manipulated for a high invulnerability identity (youth) vs. a low invulnerability identity (elderly) population. Results showed that the human interest framing increased the perception of risk, especially when the proximity of the epidemic was high; this effect was explained by people’s emotional response. Furthermore, youth projected the risk towards ‘the other’ in order to protect their invulnerability identity. Finally, we stress the importance of the SRT on a theoretical and applied level for risk communication in health crises.     

The historical roots of multicultural unity along the Upper Guinea Coast and in Guinea-Bissau

Lusofonia or lusophony is often defined as an identity shared by people in areas that were once colonised by Portugal, which in Africa include Angola, Cabo Verde, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique and São Tomé and Príncipe. Lusofonia assumes that in these places people share something – a language, certainly, but also a history and culture rooted in the Iberian Peninsula. In some ways it is a re-articulation of Gilberto Freyre’s lusotropicalismo, the idea that Portuguese were more adaptable than other Europeans to tropical climates and cultures and created more multicultural colonial communities. Those who espouse lusofonia often have a political agenda – the strengthening of the Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries. In this article, we argue that, like lusotropicalismo, lusofonia is a dream; it is not rooted in a historical reality. It is luso-centric in that it ignores the power and persistence of local cultures and gives undue weight to Portuguese influence. With regard to Africa, lusofonia’s agenda is elite driven and assumes the inevitability of modernity and globalisation. And we demonstrate that it was through Upper Guinean institutions and languages, and not colonial ones, that community and fellowship were most commonly fostered in the past, as they are fostered today. Those seeking the roots of lusofonia cannot, then, look to this period of Portuguese–African engagement in Upper Guinea. There Portuguese embraced “black ways.” They operated in a peculiar multicultural space in which people possessed fluid and flexible identities. Portugal did not create that space. Lusofonia has not been the foundation for cultural unity. Rather, unity has been found in localised institutions and in Crioulo. In Guinea-Bissau, lusofonia is not an indigenous movement. If it is anything, it is the stuff of elites and foreigners and is not rooted in any historical reality.     

The Structured Interview of Family Assessment Risk: Convergent Validity,Inter-rater Reliability and Structural Relations

The quality of parenting, composition and socio-economic status are family risk or protective factors on juvenile delinquency, however, there is not an instrument to help psychologists and social workers to specifically assess the adolescent offender’s family. This study set out to accomplish an additional validation study of the structured interview of family assessment risk (SIFAR), a structured professional judgment tool for the assessment of family risk and protective factors of juvenile delinquents. The statistical analyses included inter-rater reliability, convergent validity with YLS/CMI, the Partial Least Squares approach to structural equation modeling and receiving operator characteristics (ROC) analysis. A sample of 130 male adolescent delinquents detained in Portuguese forensic facilities and their parents, were paired analyzed. The YLS/CMI was used to analyze the convergent validity with SIFAR. SIFAR shows a strong correlation with the YLS/CMI family context, moderate to high values of inter-rater reliability; SIFAR factors show that they are predictive determinants of the Moderate Four risk factors. ROC analysis shows adequate accuracy power. The findings show that SIFAR it is useful as an additional assessment tool for structured risk assessment instruments since it allows understanding the vulnerabilities and strengths of the delinquent’s family.