货币增速剪刀差与股票价格波动的相关性实证研究--基于结构突变视角

为深入认知我国货币政策与股票市场间的传导机制,在阐述结构突变理论,揭示数据生成过程运行轨迹的基础上,选用2004年1月至2012年8月的月度数据,以货币增速剪刀差和上证综合指数为考察指标,利用滤波图分析、外生性与BLS内生性结构突变单位根检验及Granger因果关系检验方法,实证检验两者关系。表明货币增速剪刀差序列服从平稳过程,上证指数序列为含有在2006年9月和2007年7月发生结构突变的平稳过程。上证指数与货币增速剪刀差之间存在单向因果关系。     

Sex Related Factors in the Perception of Threatening Facial Expressions

This study replicated and extended previously reported sex differences involving both viewer and target in the recognition of threatening facial expressions. Based on the assumption that the evolved cognitive mechanisms mediating anger recognition would have been designed by natural selection to operate quickly in the interests of survival, brief tachistoscopic presentation of stimulus photographs was used. Additionally, in contrast to prior published studies, the statistical methods of signal detection research were used to control for the confounding effects of non-random guessing. The main hypothesis, that anger posed by males would be more accurately perceived than anger posed by females, was supported. A secondary hypothesis, that female-posed anger would be more accurately perceived by women than by men, received partial support. Testosterone levels, measured inferentially in terms of diurnal cycles, failed to show the hypothesized positive relationship to accuracy of anger perception.     

The PALS parenting support programme: lessons learned from the evaluation of processes and outcomes

Although there has recently been a rise in parenting support programmes within the UK, only a minority of these programmes have benefited from evaluation of either outcomes or processes. This paper describes the development of the PALS programme (Parents Altogether Lending Support), reporting both on its effectiveness in improving parents' interactions with their children and on the lessons that were learned about embedding such a programme within the local community. Over the 18‐month period of the programme, a total of 17 courses were run, with 75 parents and carers (primarily mothers) participating in the programme overall. Evaluation results indicated that participants enjoyed the course and found it beneficial, particularly in terms of altering their own actions in specific ways that were able to promote better behaviour on the part of their children. Participants also valued the opportunity to share their experiences with other parents. The key lesson identified in regard to the development of parenting programmes concerned the need for the community to feel a sense of ownership for the initiative. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Book Review: Funding Virtue: Civil Society Aid and Democracy Promotion,Marina Ottaway and Thomas Carothers (eds.), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,Washington, DC, 2000

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations -     

Existence and Nash implementation of efficient sharing rules for a commonly owned technology

Suppose that a group of individuals owns collectively a technology which produces a consumption good by means of a (possibly heterogeneous) input. A sharing rule associates input contributions with a vector of consumptions that are technologically feasible. We show that the set of allocations obtained by any continuous sharing rule contains Pareto efficient allocations. We also present a mechanism that implements in Nash equilibrium the Pareto efficient allocations contained in an arbitrary sharing rule. Received: 29 June 1998/Accepted: 15 November 2000     

REVIEWS

Bailey, C. E. (Ed.) (2000). Children in therapy: Using the family as a resource. Doherty, W. J. (2001). Take back your marriage: Sticking together in a world that pulls us apart. New York: Guilford. Larson, J. H. (2000). Should we stay together? A scientically proven method for evaluating your relationship and improving its chances for long‐term success. Weiner‐Davis, M. (2001). The divorce remedy: The proven 7‐step program for saving your marriage.     

Life Experiences and Vulnerabilities of Homeless Women: A Comparison of Women Unaccompanied Versus Accompanied by Minor Children, and Correlates with Children's Emotional Distress

The histories and service needs of 2 groups of homeless women, those unaccompanied by minor children (n = 46) and those accompanied by minor children (n = 22), were compared, on the basis of their responses to a biennial survey of homeless people in a midsize city in the southeast United States. Mothers of children aged 2–10 also completed a measure of stress symptoms for their children (n = 20). Irrespective of family status group, problems such as substance abuse, history of mental illness, health problems, chronicity of homelessness, and crime victimization tended to cluster together. The findings also suggest that declining and/or inadequate levels of public benefits, Temporary Assistance to Needy Families, and Medicaid-funded health care in particular, have adversely affected the 2 groups, particularly families with children. The young children in this sample experienced elevated levels of stress, and significant associations were found between children's stress levels and certain risk factors of their mothers. Implications for service delivery are discussed.     

Frustration in Infancy: Implications for Emotion Regulation,Physiological Processes,and Temperament

A study sample of 162 six‐month‐old children was selected from a larger sample of 346 infants on the basis of parents' report of their infants' temperament and a laboratory assessment of temperament. Infants were classified as easily frustrated and less easily frustrated and compared on a number of emotion regulation, physiology, and temperament measures. Results indicated that male and female infants were equally likely to be classified as frustrated and less easily frustrated; however, male infants were less able to regulate physiologically. Easily frustrated infants used different emotion regulation strategies and were observed to be less attentive and more active than less easily frustrated infants when observed in the laboratory. These infants were also characterized by their parents as more active, less attentive, and more distressed to novelty. Infants classified as easily frustrated were more reactive physiologically and less able to regulate physiological reactivity than their less easily frustrated counterparts. It is hypothesized that this cluster of characteristics may constitute a unique temperamental type that may have implications for other types of behavioral functioning. Limitations of the study are that observations are based on a single brief assessment of the infant, modest effect sizes were found, and the study is cross‐sectional.     

The residual effect of a growth-decay mechanism and the distributions of covariance structures

The product of two independent or dependent scalar normal variables, sums of products, sample covariances, and general bilinear forms are considered. Their distributions are shown to belong to a class called generalized Laplacian. A growth-decay mechanism is also shown to produce such a generalized Laplacian. Sets of necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for bilinear forms to belong to this class. As a generalization, the distributions of rectangular matrices associated with multivariate normal random vectors are also discussed.