Lag Length Selection for Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Nonstationary Volatility

A number of recent papers have focused on the problem of testing for a unit root in the case where the driving shocks may be unconditionally heteroskedastic. These papers have, however, taken the lag length in the unit root test regression to be a deterministic function of the sample size, rather than data-determined, the latter being standard empirical practice. We investigate the finite sample impact of unconditional heteroskedasticity on conventional data-dependent lag selection methods in augmented Dickey–Fuller type regressions and propose new lag selection criteria which allow for unconditional heteroskedasticity. Standard lag selection methods are shown to have a tendency to over-fit the lag order under heteroskedasticity, resulting in significant power losses in the (wild bootstrap implementation of the) augmented Dickey–Fuller tests under the alternative. The proposed new lag selection criteria are shown to avoid this problem yet deliver unit root tests with almost identical finite sample properties as the corresponding tests based on conventional lag selection when the shocks are homoskedastic.     

On L 1-consistency of kernel-type density estimator for stationary markov processes

A convergence result for kernel type density estimators, proved by Devroye and Gyrofi (1985), is extended to stationary Markov processess satisfying (G ₂-condition introduced by Rosenblatt (1970).     

Bayesian analysis of a multiple-recapture model

In the Bayesian analysis of a multiple-recapture census, different diffuse prior distributions can lead to markedly different inferences about the population size N. Through consideration of the Fisher information matrix it is shown that the number of captures in each sample typically provides little information about N. This suggests that if there is no prior information about capture probabilities, then knowledge of just the sample sizes and not the number of recaptures should leave the distribution of Nunchanged. A prior model that has this property is identified and the posterior distribution is examined. In particular, asymptotic estimates of the posterior mean and variance are derived. Differences between Bayesian and classical point and interval estimators are illustrated through examples.     

Testimator of the scale parameter of the exponential distribution using linex loss function

The present paper investigates the properties of a testimator of scale of an exponential distribution under Linex loss function. The risk function of testimator is derived and compared with that of an admissible estimator relative to Linex loss function. The shrinkage testimator is proposed which is the extension of testimator and its properties have been discussed. The level of significance of testimator is decided on the basis of Akaike information criterion following Hirano (1977, 1978). It is found that the testimator and shrinkage testimator dominates the admissible estimator in terms of risk in certain parametric space.     

Estimation of mean vector in presence of non-response

Simultaneous estimation of means of several variables is considered for finite population in presence of non-response. Two types of nonresponses (partial and complete) are considered using the technique of sampling and subsampling with equal probabilities without replacement. The optimum sample size and the optimum value of subsampling fraction to be repeated from the nonresponding units of the sample have been obtained for fixed survey budget.     

Goals for Statistical Uses of Administrative Records: The Next 10 Years

United States statistical agencies use data from administrative record systems to develop program statistics, to establish statistical data bases, and to enhance and evaluate census and survey data. Such uses of administrative records are likely to increase as efforts to control costs and respondent burden of statistical programs continue. This review article proposes six goals for enhanced statistical uses of administrative records in the next 10 years and describes elements of an activist strategy to achieve them. The discussants, representing three agencies that make important statistical uses of administrative records, give their reactions to the proposed goals and strategy.     

Some improved ratio type estimators of population mean and ratio in finite population sample surveys

In this paper we present a class of ratio type estimators of the population mean and ratio in a finite population sample surveys with without replacement simple random sampling design, where information on an auxiliary variate x positively correlated with the main variate y is available. Large sample approximations to mean square errors (MSE) of these estimatorsare evaluated and their MSE's are compared with the MSE of the usual ratio estimator [ybar]_R of [ybar] the population mean of y. It is shown that under certain conditions these estimators are more efficient than [ybar]_R. When a prior knowledge of the value of thecoefficient of variation, c_y, of y is at hand, ratio type estimator, say [ybar]₁ of [ybar] is proposed. It is shown, under certain conditions, that [ybar]₁ is more efficient than [ybar]_R. When values of c_y, c_x and the population correlation coefficient ρ is at hand, then we have proposed another estimator, say [ybar]₂ of [ybar], which is always better than [ybar]_R as far as the efficiency is concerned. In fact, is [ybar] ₂ is shown to be even better than [ybar]₁. Finally estimators better than the usual ratio estimator [ybar]/[xbar] of [Ybar] are given.     

Chain ratio type estimator for ratio of two population m3ans using auxiliary characters

In this paper we have proposed chain ratio type estimators for ratio of two population means using two auxiliary characters. The expressions for bias and mean square error of these estimators have been derived. A comparison of the proposed estimator with that of double sampling estimator has been made in terms of mean square error. An emperical study has also been made.     

On the distributions of the estimated process capability indices

The exact distributions of the estimated process capability indices are presented and their means, variances, and mean-squared errors are given. The basic assumption is that the process measurements are taken from a normal distribution. Theresults in this article are useful in evaluating process capability.     

Testing a main effect in a three factor mixed model

In the present paper, the author has considered and compared the power of three test procedures, based on two preliminary tests of significance (PTS), for testing a main effect in a three factor factorial experiment. Davenport and Webster (1973) type test statistics are used in the final test. Recommendation for a suitable size of PTS has been made so that the power of a test procedure is adequately high.