Exploring the Uncertainties in Cancer Risk Assessment Using the Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IPRA) Approach

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N‐nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose‐incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates.     

Das Fördern der Empathie bei Kindern mit FAUSTLOS

Preventing violence among children and youth is one of our society’;s major present challenges. Scientifically based prevention programs have been published to lower the level of aggression among children. These programs build upon the development of children pro-social competences to reduce aggressive and destructive behaviour. Furthermore, the promotion of empathy plays a central role in these. FAUSTLOS, the German adaptation of the US program Second Step, is such a curriculum developed for kinder-gardens and elementary schools. This program focuses on the development of prosocial competences fitting to the age and development of children in the following three dimensions: empathy, impulse control and personal anger-management. The effectiveness of FAUSTLOS has been proven in a couple of studies. More than 2000 teachers in German kinder-gardens and schools have been trained to use this program in their institutions.     

The structure of acquaintance nets and rates of societal development

Selected steps in progress on the “small world problem” are reviewed, to show the difficulty of finding models that can produce the spectrum of clusters that is observed in contact nets rather than a single large cluster. Empirical work now in progress in the Philippines and in Hong Kong to correlate the structure of the acquaintance nets with rates of economic, political and societal development is presented and related to next steps in modelling. The relation of both empirical and theoretical findings to networking is brought out, as is the potential of computer conferencing for such network-supported applications as the provision of support in health maintenance.     

Technikbewertung als Instrument der politischen Gestaltung. Über die Steuerbarkeit moderner Gesellschaften

The concept of technology assessment emerged at the end of the 1960s. It was based on the consideration that state agents, and parliaments in particular, dispose of information on the risks of new technologies and large-scale technical systems in order to be able to arrive at well-founded decisions. Today, the idea of technology assessment, which not by coincidence arose in the phase of control optimism, appears to be off the political agenda, to a large extent, as an expression of instrumentally-rational action in the domain of technology. However, the dominant role of technology in social transformation, as described by many sociological classics, has by no means diminished. The following paper outlines the connections between the instrument of technology assessment and the question of controllability. It is shown that the idea of technology assessment relies on largely obsolete assumptions about the ability of states to exercise control. Technology assessment adapted to modern conditions cannot be an exclusive function of the state, but must be devolved to and institutionalized with all agents concerned with the shaping of new technologies. Zusammenfassung. Das Konzept der Technikbewertung ("technology assessment") ist Ende der 60er-Jahre entstanden. Ihm lag die überlegung zugrunde, dass staatliche Akteure – v. a. das Parlament – frühzeitig über die Risiken neuer Technologien und gro?technischer Systeme informiert sind, um begründete Entscheidungen treffen zu k?nnen. Heute scheint die Idee der Technikbewertung, die nicht zuf?llig in der Phase des Steuerungsoptimismus entstand, als Ausdruck zweckrationalen Handelns im Bereich Technik von der politischen Agenda weit gehend verdr?ngt zu sein. Die von vielen sozialwissenschaftlichen Klassikern beschriebene dominante Rolle der Technik für den sozialen Wandel ist jedoch heute keineswegs geringer geworden. Der folgende Beitrag skizziert die Zusammenh?nge zwischen dem Instrument "Technikbewertung" mit der Frage nach der Steuerbarkeit moderner Gesellschaften. Es zeigt sich, dass der Idee der Technikbewertung Annahmen über die Steuerungsf?higkeit des Staates zugrunde liegen, die heute kaum noch zutreffen. Eine den Bedingungen der Moderne angepasste Technikbewertung darf nicht nur beim Staat, sondern muss dezentral bei allen Akteuren, die mit der Gestaltung neuer Technologien befasst sind, institutionalisiert werden.

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Résumé. C'est à la fin des années soixante que s'est développée la conception visant à l'évaluation des choix technologiques (technology assessment). Cette conception reposait sur les considérations que, afin d'être à même de prendre des décisions bien fondées, les acteurs publics – et avant tout les Parlements – devaient être informés à temps des risques liés à de nouvelles technologies ou de ceux qui pouvaient venir des systèmes agissant à l'échelon industriel. Aujourd'hui, il semble bien que l'idée de l'évaluation des choix technologiques a été en grande partie évincée de l'agenda politique, cette idée dont la naissance au moment où l'optimisme de la théorie du contr?le battait son plein, n'était pas un hasard, exprimait dans le domaine de la technique l'expression d'actions s'orientant vers une rationalité au niveau du choix des buts. Le r?le prépondérant joué par la technique dans le changement social, r?le déjà décrit par la plupart des scientifiques classiques sociaux, n'a aujourd'hui nullement perdu de son importance. L'article suivant donne un aper?u sur les corrélations existant entre l'instrument "évaluation des choix technologiques" et la question de la gouvernabilité des sociétés modernes. Nous montrerons que l'idée de l'évaluation des choix technologiques repose sur des hypothèses concernant la capacité de contr?le de l'état, hypothèses dont la validité est aujourd'hui presque inexistante. L'une des conditions pour une évaluation des choix technologiques pouvant s'adapter aux temps modernes est que cette évaluation ne doit pas rester aux seules mains de l'état mais doit au contraire être décentralisée afin de pouvoir être institutionnalisée chez tous les acteurs participant à la conception de nouvelles technologies.

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Electronic Publication     

Organizational Sleepwalkers: Emotional Distress at Midlife

In this paper, attention is paid to adysfunctional emotional behavior pattern wherebyindividuals experience very little (or a total absenceof) pleasure. Instead, there is a feeling of emotionalnumbness. Although this phenomenon touches all parts oflife, this paper focuses on the organizational context.For some executives, the stresses and strains of midlife(including stresses involving career issues) become the catalyst for this dysfunctionalemotional behavior. Their reactions are of aquasi-alexithymic and anhedonic nature. Some of thecharacteristics of this dysfunctional emotional patternare delineated in these pages. In addition, the relatedexperience of depersonalization is highlighted. Some ofthe factors that contribute to these kinds of phenomenaare explored. At the end of the paper, a number of recommendations for dealing with thesedifficulties are given.     

Adolescents' trust and reciprocity toward friends,unknown peers,and community members

Using a newly developed version of the Trust Game among 196 adolescents aged 11–20 years, this study examined whether adolescents distinguish between trust and reciprocity to unknown peers, friends, and community members. We also tested for effects of age, gender, and individual differences in attending to others' emotions, emotional support to friends, societal contributions, and institutional and interpersonal trust beliefs. Results indicated that adolescents showed the least trust and reciprocity to unknown peers, more to a community member, and most to friends. Reciprocity increased with age, and individual differences in societal contributions and interpersonal trust were positively related to trust and reciprocity. This study was the first to show that community members are a specific target in adolescents' social world.