Discussion of “Nonparametric Bayesian Inference in Applications”: Bayesian nonparametric methods in econometrics

The use of Bayesian nonparametrics models has increased rapidly over the last few decades driven by increasing computational power and the development of efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. We review some applications of these models in economic applications including: volatility modelling (using both stochastic volatility models and GARCH-type models) with Dirichlet process mixture models, uses in portfolio allocation problems, long memory models with flexible forms of time-dependence, flexible extension of the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model for interest rate yields and multivariate time series models used in macroeconometrics.     

Asset Decommissioning Risk Metrics for Floating Structures in the Gulf of Mexico

Public companies in the United States are required to report standardized values of their proved reserves and asset retirement obligations on an annual basis. When compared, these two measures provide an aggregate indicator of corporate decommissioning risk but, because of their consolidated nature, cannot readily be decomposed at a more granular level. The purpose of this article is to introduce a decommissioning risk metric defined in terms of the ratio of the expected value of an asset's reserves to its expected cost of decommissioning. Asset decommissioning risk (ADR) is more difficult to compute than a consolidated corporate risk measure, but can be used to quantify the decommissioning risk of structures and to perform regional comparisons, and also provides market signals of future decommissioning activity. We formalize two risk metrics for decommissioning and apply the ADR metric to the deepwater Gulf of Mexico (GOM) floater inventory. Deepwater oil and gas structures are expensive to construct, and at the end of their useful life, will be expensive to decommission. The value of proved reserves for the 42 floating structures in the GOM circa January 2013 is estimated to range between $37 and $80 billion for future oil prices between 60 and 120 $/bbl, which is about 10 to 20 times greater than the estimated $4.3 billion to decommission the inventory. Eni's Allegheny and MC Offshore's Jolliet tension leg platforms have ADR metrics less than one and are approaching the end of their useful life. Application of the proposed metrics in the regulatory review of supplemental bonding requirements in the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf is suggested to complement the current suite of financial metrics employed.     

The Interview for Decisional Abilities (IDA): a tool to assess the decisional capacity of abused and neglected older adults

We present the Interview for Decisional Abilities (IDA), a semi-structured tool for use by adult protective services (APS) workers as part of their comprehensive assessments of clients. The IDA was created in response to a Federal mandate to standardize the procedures and competencies of APS agencies with a view to improving client assessments and facilitating cross-jurisdictional research on adult mistreatment. The proximal aim of the IDA is to guide workers in gathering information on the ability of suspected victims of adult mistreatment to make decisions about the risks they face.     

Charisma as signal: An evolutionary perspective on charismatic leadership

We present an evolutionary perspective on charismatic leadership, arguing that charisma has evolved as a credible signal of a person's ability to solve a coordination challenge requiring urgent collective action from group members. We suggest that a better understanding of charisma's evolutionary and biological origins and functions can provide a broader perspective in which to situate current debates surrounding the utility and validity of charismatic leadership as a construct in the social sciences. We outline several key challenges which have shaped our followership psychology, and argue that the benefits of successful coordination in ancestral environments has led to the evolution of context-dependent psychological mechanisms which are especially attuned to cues and signals of outstanding personal leadership qualities. We elaborate on several implications of this signaling hypothesis of charismatic leadership, including opportunities for deception (dishonest signaling) and for large-scale coordination.     

Introvision in der Arbeitsvermittlung für Fallmanager und Arbeitslose

In the context of a pilot study the effects of the educational-psychological intervention Introvision were tested with older long-term unemployed people. The project was accomplished in the time by 1.4.2010 to 31.12.2010 in co-operation between ARGE Paderborn and the research group Introvision. In the context of the project 16 employees of ARGE Paderborn participated in an advanced training to Introvision, 31 customers of ARGE Paderborn began a coaching to get introduction in Introvision and 20 have also finished. Nine customers decided to participate five individual coachings. The results show, that the offers have a high individual use for the participants. To the central changes belong improved handling of stress, decrease of social isolation, improved (self-) perception as well as a higher self-confidence and a more open co-operation between customers and employees of ARGE Paderborn. Besides four participation began a job on the first labour market and two could be connected to a honorary activity.     

The Impact of Macro-Economic Circumstances and Social Protection Expenditure on Economic Deprivation in 25 European Countries, 2007–2011

In this study, we investigate to what extent macro-economic circumstances and social protection expenditure affect economic deprivation. We use three items from round five of the European Social Survey (2010–2011) to construct our latent outcome variable, which we label economic deprivation in the 3 years before 2010–2011. The results of our linear multilevel regression analyses indicate that in countries that perform worse economically, individual experiences of economic deprivation are more prevalent: the stronger the rise in the unemployment rate and the lower a country’s wealth, the more economic deprivation individuals experience. We also find that in countries with high levels of social protection, people experience less economic deprivation as compared to countries with low levels of social protection. In turn, adverse economic conditions in a country temper these positive outcomes of social welfare arrangements. Finally, our study reveals that the strength of the relationship between a low income and economic deprivation strongly varies according to the economic circumstances in a country and the generosity of the welfare state.     

The effects of state-dependent human behavior on the design of a serial line

Most research on line design assumes that human operators perform independently from the status of the line. Recent empirical evidence is contradictory. Humans are likely to change their working speed if they might otherwise cause idle time (Schultz et al., Manage Sci 44(12):1595–1607, 1998). This peculiarity of worker behavior is observed in a variety of settings but little is still known about optimal line design that accounts for this more realistic modeling of worker behavior. Therefore, we analyze work allocation in a serial line with limited buffer capacity and adaptive human behavior. An extensive simulation study reveals that optimal work allocation in state-dependent models is different from classical state-independent models. A bowl-shaped work allocation might be suboptimal and design guidelines are more complicated. Depending on the extent of human reactions, a bowl-shaped, balanced, or reversed-bowl work allocation can be preferable.     

Benefits of an Arts-Based Mindfulness Group Intervention for Vulnerable Children

We discuss qualitative and quantitative research findings from a study exploring the benefits and effectiveness of a 12-week arts-based mindfulness group program for vulnerable children (children who were involved with the child welfare or mental health systems and experienced a variety of challenges). Using post-group individual interviews with children/guardians, and pre and post-intervention self-report data (using the Piers-Harris Children’s Self-Concept Scale and the Resiliency Scales for Children and Adolescents), we hypothesized that children would have improved resilience and self-concept after having completed the program. Interpretive thematic qualitative analysis was conducted using transcribed interview data collected from 47 children (30 girls and 17 boys with a mean age of 10.38 years). The perceived benefits of participating in the group included improved (a) emotion regulation, (b) mood, (c) coping/social skills, (d) confidence and self-esteem, (e) empathy, and (f) ability to pay attention and focus. The quantitative analysis used self-report data from 77 children (43 girls and 34 boys with a mean age of 10.34 years). A repeated measures MANOVA was used to examine changes across the intervention period. Our hypothesis that children would have better scores on self-concept after having completed the program was partially supported and this result reflected the perceived improvements derived from the qualitative analysis. The hypothesis that resilience would improve post-group was not supported. Using these promising results, we discuss how strengths-based and arts-based mindfulness group methods may be effective in engaging vulnerable children in a beneficial helping process.