A study of Bayesian local robustness with applications in actuarial statistics

Local or infinitesimal Bayesian robustness is a powerful tool to study the sensitivity of posterior magnitudes, which cannot be expressed in a simple manner. For these expressions, the global Bayesian robustness methodology does not seem adequate since the practitioner cannot avoid using inappropriate classes of prior distributions in order to make the model mathematically tractable. This situation occurs, for example, when we compute some types of premiums in actuarial statistics in order to fix the premium to be charged to an insurance policy. In this paper, analytical and simple expressions that allow us to study the sensitivity of premiums, which are usually used in automobile insurance are provided by using the local Bayesian robustness methodology. Some examples are examined by using real automobile claim insurance data.     

Robust bootstrap forecast densities for GARCH returns and volatilities

Bootstrap procedures are useful to obtain forecast densities for both returns and volatilities in the context of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. In this paper, we analyse the effect of additive outliers on the finite sample properties of these bootstrap densities and show that, when obtained using maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters and standard filters for the volatilities, they are badly affected with dramatic consequences on the estimation of Value-at-Risk. We propose constructing bootstrap densities for returns and volatilities using a robust parameter estimator based on variance targeting implemented together with an adequate modification of the volatility filter. We show that the performance of the proposed procedure is adequate when compared with available robust alternatives. The results are illustrated with both simulated and real data.     

Trend smoothness achieved by penalized least squares with the smoothing parameter chosen by optimality criteria

This work presents a study about the smoothness attained by the methods more frequently used to choose the smoothing parameter in the context of splines: Cross Validation, Generalized Cross Validation, and corrected Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria, implemented with Penalized Least Squares. It is concluded that the amount of smoothness strongly depends on the length of the series and on the type of underlying trend, while the presence of seasonality even though statistically significant is less relevant. The intrinsic variability of the series is not statistically significant and its effect is taken into account only through the smoothing parameter.     

Financial Well-Being Index in México

Social Indicators Research - This paper aims to construct a financial well-being index and analyze its determinants among adults in Mexico. It employs multiple correspondence analysis, multiple...     

The expected impact of the 2019 Brazilian pension reform on survivors’ pensions

This study analyses the expected changes in survivors’ pensions resulting from the permanent rules of the 2019 pension reform in Brazil. Actuarial annuities are used for representative worker profiles. The dispersion in the replacement rate values decreases, except for the highest income level. The rates needed to finance survivors’ pensions decrease relatively more than do the rates for old-age pensions. The internal rates of return significantly decrease. There is a heterogeneous change in the distributive aspects of the pension system. The reform shall affect the adequacy and intragenerational equity of old-age and survivors’ pensions.     

Generative systemic-constructionist psychotherapy in the face of crisis in the context of armed violence in colombia: Case of MM,Montes de María – Department of Sucre

This article aims to show a process of systemic-constructionist and generative therapy in the face of crisis situations experienced by MM. MM is a woman victim–survivor from the region of Los Montes de María in Colombia, a territory hard hit by armed violence between 1990 and 2008. Methodologically, the fragments presented are those that are repeated in three sessions. Psychotherapeutic work is a combination of dialogical and interactive resources, opportunities, and capacities that combine three kinds of time in MM's daily life. These are: first, the past of the violence; second, the present comprised of the presence of memories of violence, social and family interactions, together with psychiatric diagnoses; and third, the sense of a future based on the hope of reducing their suffering and taking action against the violence. Analysis and interpretation are hermeneutical constructions carried out throughout the psychotherapeutic process and in the midst of generative dialogues. On the one hand, the scientific and everyday knowledge that helps to process and transform the crisis is recognised. On the other hand, it shows a form of knowledge that distances itself from the parameters of science and positivist approaches. In conclusion, this article is an opportunity to question traditional positions within the field of mental health in the light of moments constructed with MM in the framework of systemic-constructionist therapy, seen as a relational space where generative contexts are built.     

“Having a family is the new normal”: Parenting in neoliberal academia during the COVID-19 pandemic

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has made explicit the burden of care shouldered by academic mothers, in addition to juggling their scholarly commitments. Although discussions are abundant on the impact of caring responsibilities on the careers of women academics, neoliberal academia continues to minimize such struggles. Despite the disruptions to family routines caused by the health crisis, academic institutions have expected academic mothers and fathers to continue undertaking their professional responsibilities at the same level as before, disregarding their parenting demands. This paper contributes to the research on parenthood in academia by looking at how, throughout the pandemic, academic parents have negotiated the tensions between parenthood and academic demands, and by investigating the strategies they use to confront neoliberal culture of academic performativity, even amid the health crisis. The paper engages with the “space invaders” concept used by Puwar (2004) to analyze the “hypervisibility” of academic mothers' and fathers' “bodies out of place” during the pandemic, and to investigate their “renegade acts” against the uncaring attitudes of their institutions. Evidence is drawn from a qualitative study conducted during December 2020 and January 2021 among scholars affiliated to Portuguese academic institutions: 17 in-depth interviews conducted with women, and two mixed-gender focus groups. Our results research reveal how the experiences of academic mothers and fathers were not uniform during the pandemic. In addition, it shows how, despite their commitment to their academic responsibilities, these parents have crafted various resistance strategies to confront the institutional pressure to continue maintain their working routines, and instead positioning themselves as “more than just academics.”     

Book reviews

The Journal of Economic Inequality -     

Economic Crisis and Job Quality in Spain: A Multi-dimensional and Micro-data Empirical Approach

Through a representative sample of 9,100 and 8,755 employees in 2008 and 2010, and a using two-stage structural equation model, this article empirically analyses the multi-dimensional determinants (direct effects) of job quality in Spain. The research concludes that: #1 despite the economic crisis, job quality improved over the analysis period; #2 there was a shift in job quality explanation towards a more complete model with greater preponderance of the dimensions connected with the workplace relationships, work intensity, working conditions and work–life balance in detriment to dimensions connected with the intrinsic job quality and extrinsic rewards. These results suggest the importance of the working environment and social relationships, beyond the quality of the workplace, as important tools of employment public policy to improve labor markets and to overcoming the economic crisis.