Dynamic risk control for project development

A statistical methodology for dynamic risk control is discussed. The research is aimed at constructing tools for the analysis of expert opinions within a company about the risks involved in the production of a new commercial product or service. Focus is on risk events and on the analysis of the expert assessments of probabilities, losses and correlations of such events. A rescoring loop of risk assessments and preventive actions taken by the company on the basis of these assessments is illustrated through an example on software development. Relevant literature on risk and subjective elicitations is reviewed.     

So Close,So Far. The Cultural Distance of Foreigners in Italy

Social Indicators Research - The presence of foreigners in a host country is a contentious issue: opponents claim, among other things, that the cultural distance between them and natives is too...     

Validity and reliability of the Italian Gambling Functional Assessment–Revised

Problem gambling is a growing phenomenon in Italy, and there is increasing interest in studying the reasons for gambling in the Italian community. The Gambling Functional Assessment–Revised (GFA-R) was developed to assess two contingencies maintaining gambling behaviour: positive reinforcement and escape. The study hypothesized that the GFA-R could be translated and adopted in the Italian context. The main purpose of this study was to test the factor structure of the Italian version of the GFA-R by means of confirmatory factor analysis, its internal consistency and validity, in a sample of 667 Italian-speaking adults, recruited at universities, banks, of?ces, industries, markets, public parks and shops in five regions: Piemonte, Veneto, Lazio, Calabria and Puglia. The study found that the scale was internally consistent, and results showed that the original two-factor model fitted the data well. It also found moderate correlations between the GFA-R-I and both SOGS scores and GRCS scores. These results will allow Italian psychologists, educators and policymakers to identify specific contingencies maintaining gambling behaviour (positive reinforcement vs. escape) in the Italian community, detecting people more at risk of developing disordered gambling, with significant improvements in terms of prevention and clinical intervention.     

Effect of Perceived Crisis Response on Consumers' Behavioral Intentions During a Company Scandal – An Intercultural Perspective

In the context of a multi-national company scandal, namely Volkswagen's Dieselgate, we examine the effect of customers' perception of organizational crisis response on their revenge and avoidance intentions in different cultural settings. Using data collected in the US and in Germany, we are able to show that the perception of appropriate crisis response reduces customers' revenge as well as avoidance intentions. However, due to the domestic bias of German respondents, the mechanism linking perception of the organization's crisis response to the respective outcomes differs between Germany and the US. Our results demonstrate for the first time that domestic bias is not always associated with being an amplifier of positive factors; rather, in the context of an organizational scandal, it dampens the effects of organizational crisis response.     

Some Nonparametric Asymptotic Results for a Class of Stochastic Processes

This article provides a solution of a generalized eigenvalue problem for integrated processes of order 2 in a nonparametric framework. Our analysis focuses on a pair of random matrices related to such integrated process. The matrices are constructed considering some weight functions. Under asymptotic conditions on such weights, convergence results in distribution are obtained and the generalized eigenvalue problem is solved. Differential equations and stochastic calculus theory are used.     

Forecasting the industrial production using alternative factor models and business survey data

This paper compares the forecasting performance of three alternative factor models based on business survey data for the industrial production in Italy. The first model uses static principal component analysis, while the other two apply dynamic principal component analysis in frequency domain and subspace algorithms for state-space representation, respectively. Once the factors are extracted from the business survey data, then they are included into a single equation to predict the industrial production index. The forecast results show that the three factor models have a better performance than that of a simple autoregressive benchmark model regardless of the specification and estimation methods. Furthermore, the state-space model yields superior forecasts amongst the factor models.     

On the asymptotic distribution of a simple unit root test for trending and breaking series

In this paper, we derive the asymptotic distribution of Popp's (2008) innovational outlier unit root test for trending series with a break. The results of Zivot and Andrews (1992) are applied to provide the limiting results of these new test statistics. We tabulate their asymptotic and finite sample critical values, and illustrate the use of the new statistics with an application to the unemployment rate series for 23 OECD countries.     

Effects of tadalafil treatment combined with physical activity in patients with low onset hypogonadism: results from a not-randomized single arm phase 2 study

Purpose: To investigate a possible relation between penile Doppler ultrasound examination (PDUE) parameters and efficacy of chronic therapy with tadalafil (TAD) combined with a protocol of aerobic physical activity (PA) in patients with late onset hypogonadism (LOH). Methods: The study evaluated 30 patients consecutively enrolled with LOH and erectile dysfunction which present contraindication to hormonal replacement therapy for concomitant prostate disease. These patients were subjected to a combined protocol with phosphodiesterase V selective inhibitors (TAD 5?mg daily) and aerobic PA.

Results: After three months, we observed significant improvements in erectile function [IIEF-5, median (IQR)?=?13.0 (7.0–18.0) versus 6.0 (5.0–6.75); p?p?Conclusion: PA in association with phosphodiesterase V inhibitors could compensate the effects of hypogonadism on erectile function and facilitate the clinical response to these drugs even in the absence of adequate serum concentrations of total testosterone.     

Reliability and Validity of the Pathological Gambling Adaptation of the Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (PG-YBOCS)

The Yale Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale adapted for Pathological Gambling (PG-YBOCS) was developed to measure the severity and change in severity of pathological gambling symptoms. The PG-YBOCS is a 10-item clinician-administered questionnaire that measures the severity of PG over a recent time interval (usually within the past one/two week(s)). In order to assess and validate the scale, it was administered to 337 subjects: 188 pathological gamblers and 149 healthy controls. Internal consistency and correlations between individual items and total score were assessed for various permutations of the sample. Other scales were administered to assess convergent, discriminant and content validity. Sensitivity to change was evaluated in treatment studies with fluovoxamine, lithium, and valproate. Each item was frequently endorsed across a range of severity. Good inter-rater reliability and internal consistency were obtained. The PG-YBOCS showed high validity and reliability for total score, item-total correlations, and for each subscale (Thoughts/Urges and Behavior). PG-YBOCS scores correlated with global severity and South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) scores. The scale was also sensitive to change in pathological gambling severity. PG-YBOCS thus appears to be a reliable and valid measure of pathological gambling severity, and can be regarded as an important tool for clinicians and researchers treating pathological gamblers.