DISSECTING THE MONTY HALL ANOMALY

We assess competing explanations of irrational behavior in the Monty Hall problem by creating new variants of the problem. Some variants employ a feature that automates the merging of probabilities, thus rendering transparent the probabilistic advantage of the rational choice. That feature also enables systematic variation in informational asymmetry, and in ordering of actions. Data from 77 subjects, each of whom makes 30 binary decisions, indicate that automated merging raises the fraction of rational choices from around 40% to over 80%. Other features examined have much less impact, indicating the importance of a Bayesian updating failure. (JEL C91, D02, D81, D83)     

Pricing policies and corporate strategy

In this article, attention is drawn to the importance of pricing in the formulation of corporate strategies. The author compares traditional “cost plus” pricing with market oriented approaches, and argues the case for pricing policies to be given greater emphasis in corporate planning. He examines the role of the corporate planner in developing price strategies for existing products and for new products and recommends the formulation of product strategies based on greater price leverage.     

Relational Health and Masculine Gender-Role Conflict in the Friendships and Community Relationships of Bisexual,Gay, and Straight Men

This study examined how men's masculine gender-role conflict and the importance men placed on interpersonal relationships in defining their self-identities predicted their relational health experiences in same-sex, dyadic friendships and community relationships. Using an Internet sample of 283 self-identified bisexual, gay, and straight men, results of hierarchical linear regression analyses indicated that for men across sexual orientations, the more importance men placed on interpersonal relationships with other men, the greater the degree of relational health they experienced in dyadic friendships. Additionally, for bisexual and gay men in dyadic friendships with other men, gender-role conflict was inversely related to the relational health of their friendships. In the domain of community relationships, the importance that bisexual and straight men placed on interpersonal relationships in defining their self-identities and levels of gender-role conflict predicted relational health experiences. For gay men, however, feelings of masculine gender-role conflict, alone, predicted poorer relational health in community relationships. Study limitations, clinical implications for practice, and future research directions are discussed.     

A Simplified Method of Calculating an Overall Goodness-of-Fit Test for the Cox Proportional Hazards Model

Gronnesby and Borgan (1996) propose an overall goodness-of-fit test for the Cox proportional hazards model. The basis of their test is a grouping of subjects by their estimated risk score. We show that the Gronnesby and Borgan test is algebraically identical to one obtained from adding group indicator variables to the model and testing the hypothesis the coefficients of the group indicator variables are zero via the score test. Thus showing that the test can be calculated using existing software. We demonstrate that the table of observed and estimated expected number of events within each group of the risk score is a useful adjunct to the test to help identify potential problems in fit.     

FAMILY BEQUESTS AND THE DERIVED DEMAND FOR HEALTH INPUTS

A family investment model whereby parents allocate resources among their own consumption, health investments and financial bequests to children is specified and used to develop hypotheses which are tested on cross section data. As predicted by the model, the demand for physician visits for young children is found to 1) depend on family income only up to some level ($10,000 in 1969 $ in this case), 2) increase with maternal education, and 3) vary with price measures and family size, There is also evidence that greater health investments in young children pay off in fewer severe illnesses in young adulthood.     

Framing the Problem of Sex Trafficking

News media play an important role in explaining the issue of sex trafficking and may influence discourse among the public and policymakers. Understanding the ways that mass media address sex trafficking has implications for the news industry and the global status of women. This study, a quantitative content analysis, analyzed news coverage of sex trafficking in major US newspapers to understand how the issue was framed during a year of coverage. Using Entman's typology to classify the function of frames, the study focused on how news coverage defined the problem of sex trafficking and identified the remedy. The study found that news coverage of trafficking was overwhelmingly framed as a crime issue (episodic not thematic) and proposed no remedies. Most news coverage favored official sources. Survivors of trafficking and their advocates were the least heard-from sources. The authors argue ultimately that if media are to fulfill their watchdog role where trafficking is concerned, a wider range of news frames and sources is needed.     

Examining the Effect of Correctional Programming on Perceptions of Likelihood of Recidivism Among Incarcerated Prisoners

ABSTRACT

For many years, policymakers and criminal justice scholars have debated the impact of correctional programming on recidivism. This debate is currently unresolved. Using data from 1,234 currently incarcerated inmates in a mid-Southern state, this study examines whether inmates who participate in correctional programming while incarcerated are less likely to feel that they will recidivate upon release from prison. The findings from this research suggest that program participation while in prison has little impact on the inmates’ perceived recidivism, although important programming effects may still occur. Policy implications and directions for future research are discussed.