Estimation of non-occurrence probability in periodic model

Dimitrov and Khalil (1992) introduced a class of new probability distributions for modeling environmental evolution with periodic behavior. One of the key parameters in these distributions is α, the probability that the event being studied does not occur. In that article the authors derive an estimator for this parameter assuming a series of conditions. In this article it is shown that the estimator is valid under more general conditions, i.e. same of the assumptions are not necessary. It is shown that under the assumption that the elapsed time measured from the starting point of a period until the first occurrence time of the event given that the event occurred in this cycle is related to α, an approximate maximum likelihood estimator of a is proposed. The large sample properties of the estimator are discussed. Monte Carlo study is done for supporting the theoretical results.     

试析湘西民间工艺的特色

湘西民间工艺是湘西人民的宝贵财富 ,具有传统性与地域性、实用性与艺术性、师法自然与反自然的特色。     

Latino Acculturation and Perceived Educational Achievement: Evidence for a Bidimensional Model of Acculturation among Mexican-American Children

Considerable attention has been paid to the educational fate of Latino children and youths due to mounting evidence that their educational progress has been stagnant. This study investigates the effect of acculturation on perceived educational achievement among Mexican-American children, employing bidimensional acculturation theory to help explain acculturation patterns as related to both ethnic and mainstream identities. Using a sample of 294 Mexican-American children, five acculturation patterns were identified using cluster analysis. We found that the separated group of children had significantly higher educational achievement than the highly assimilated group. The study asserts that the segregated acculturation pattern can be protective for educational achievement of Mexican-American children within ethnically segregated environmental contexts.     

Flora of the tram tracks of Bratislava

Urban Ecosystems - Tram and railway tracks represent specific urban habitats, which host a specific type of flora. This study aims to compile the information about species composition of flora of...     

食品公共安全信息障碍与化解路径

国内外学者基于信息不对称视角对食品公共安全问题多有研究,在总结食品质量信息的特征基础上,分析食品公共安全信息不对称的表现和不利影响。进而提出信息不对称下食品公共安全问题的治理路径:一是构建第三方信息发送机制;二是构建食品公共安全信息共享平台,这些是解决食品"柠檬市场"、将食品从"经验品"和"信用品"转化为"搜寻品"、解决食品信息不对称性和市场失灵问题的有效路径。     

How Business Interests and Government Inaction Led to the Humidifier Disinfectant Disaster in South Korea: Implications for Better Risk Governance

Humidifier sterilizers were regarded as innovative and health-promoting products; they were widespread in South Korea until 2011. However, hospitals reported mysterious deaths, and a legal investigation in April 2016 found that hundreds of people have died due to use of the sterilizing disinfectant. This article takes up that topic, discussing the government's role in dealing with the risk regarding the humidifier disinfectant. We pay particular attention to the unequal nature of the uncertainty produced by the distorted socioeconomic structure. Through in-depth interviews with key informants and an examination of relevant documents from the government, civic groups, and newspapers, we find that the government had increasingly acknowledged the risk, yet their inaction failed to stop the high number of casualties, and they have only recently responded proactively. The uncertainty of the risk was unevenly distributed between companies, the government, experts, and citizens. We argue that the proactive and transparent role of the government with the precautionary principle could fix the unequal structure of knowledge production and preserve public health.     

中国制造业发展的区域比较

通过对比分析中国区域间制造业发展状况,指出中国区域间制造业发展呈现出不均衡的发展态势和不同的产业结构特征.分析显示,中国制造业生产能力正在由北部沿海和中西部地区逐步向东南沿海少数省份转移集中,各省份之间制造业发展差异趋于不断扩大,并突出表现为中西部广大地区与东南沿海地区之间发展差距的扩大.由于经济发展水平不同,各区域制造业部门结构处于不同的发展阶段,总的来说,区域制造业部门结构的演进方向是:从轻纺制造业(劳动密集型)向资源加工工业(资本密集型),再向机械电子制造业(技术密集型)转变.     

模袋固化土室内配比试验

为了了解模袋固化土强度增长规律,通过对现场原状土的物理分析及模袋固化土的室内配比试验,选择合适的固化剂和掺入比,并建立了贯入阻力、无侧限抗压强度与龄期的关系,为利用模袋固化土作为堤心来替代砂石料等常规材料修建海上围埝提供了理论依据,从而确定模袋固化土充填围埝的可行性,并为现场施工提供了经济合理的配合比.在实际应用中,采用模袋固化土施工,可降低工程造价成本,使资源配置合理化,同时也达到环保的效果,降低废料污染.     

会计计量演进：基于契约理论的视角

契约组成的内容与企业契约方对企业契约要求的变化,既是影响企业生存发展的重要因素,也是会计计量属性进化的前提和基础。研究表明：会计计量概念本身就内涵着契约观。在契约关系相对比较简单的时代,人们选择了历史成本计量;而在企业的契约组成与契约关系日趋多样化的年代,选择公允价值计量和实物计量,就成为会计计量发展的趋势。     

中国1982年后人口普查和抽样调查中死亡漏报的估计——基于Bayesian分层回归模型

利用Bayesian分层回归模型估计中国1982年后历次人口普查和抽样调查的死亡漏报率及其随时间的变化。结果表明:0岁死亡漏报率随时间的变化具有明显的阶段性,而1～4岁死亡漏报率随时间的变化趋势不明显;全年龄、5～14岁和15～59岁、60～89岁和90岁及以上死亡漏报率随时间的变化基本近似且同样具有阶段性。受漏报原因和不同时期社会背景的影响,女性1～4岁的死亡漏报率不一定低于0岁的死亡漏报率。人口普查成人阶段各年龄死亡漏报率差别较大,而人口抽样调查则较为一致。2000年人口普查男性和2010年全人口90岁及以上死亡率偏低是由比较严重的死亡漏报造成。死亡漏报对预期寿命计算误差的影响因年龄而异,二者关系在婴幼儿中较弱,其余年龄死亡漏报和预期寿命误差存在显著线性正相关。