加强研究中国Internet用户人口学特征

本文分析了中国Internet用户人口学特征研究的相对薄弱性、时代紧迫性、学科发展必要性和现实可行性,提出了该课题研究的基本思路和主要内容。     

The Favorite-Longshot Bias in Sequential Parimutuel Betting with Non-Expected Utility Players

This paper analyzes a model of sequential parimutuel betting described as a two-horse race with a finite number of noise bettors and a finite number of strategic and symmetrically informed bettors. For generic objective probabilities that the favorite wins the race, a unique subgame perfect equilibrium is characterized. Additionally, two explanations for the favorite–longshot bias—according to which favorites win more often than the market's estimate of their winning chances imply—are offered. It is shown that this robust anomalous empirical regularity might be due to the presence of transaction costs and/or to strategic bettors' subjective attitude to probabilities.     

Risk seeking with diminishing marginal utility in a non-expected utility model

The present work takes place in the framework of a non-expected utility model under risk: the RDEU theory (Rank Dependent Expected Utility, first initiated by Quiggin under the denomination of Anticipated Utility), where the decision maker's behavior is characterized by two functionsu andf. Our first result gives a condition under which the functionu characterizes the decision maker's attitude towards wealth. Then, defining a decision maker as risk averter (respectively risk seeker) when he always prefers to any random variable its expected value (weak definition of risk aversion), the second result states that a decision maker who has an increasing marginal utility of wealth (a convex functionu) can be risk averse, if his functionf issufficiently below his functionu, hence if he is sufficientlypessimistic. Obviously, he can also be risk seeking with a diminishing marginal utility of wealth. This result is noteworthy because with a stronger definition of risk aversion/risk seeking, based on mean-preserving spreads, Chew, Karni, and Safra have shown that the only way to be risk averse (in their sense) in RDEU theory is to have, simultaneously, a concave functionu and a convex functionf.     

Reflections on gains and losses: A 2 × 2 × 7 experiment

What determines risk attraction or aversion? We experimentally examine three factors: the gain-loss dichotomy, the probabilities (0.2 vs. 0.8), and the money at risk (7 amounts). We find that the majority display risk attraction for small amounts of money, and risk aversion for larger amounts. Yet the frequency of risk attraction varies according to the gain-loss dichotomy and the probabilities. Kahneman and Tversky studied gain-loss reflections. We submit that a reflection can be decomposed into a translation and a probability switch. We find significant translation and switch effects, which are of comparable magnitude, a result that is equidistant from the diverging two popular views inspired by Prospect Theory: the gain-loss asymmetry, and the fourfold pattern.     

Assessment of the Living Conditions in Polish and German Transborder Regions in the Context of Strengthening Territorial Cohesion in the European Union: Competitiveness or Complementation?

Social Indicators Research - The European Union's regional policy aims to strengthen economic, social, and territorial cohesion and equal space development opportunities. It is an action...     

Are transformational and laissez-faire leadership related to state anxiety among subordinates? A two-wave prospective study of forward and reverse associations

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to determine the direction of associations between perceived leadership styles of an immediate leader and state anxiety among subordinates using time-lagged data from a large and heterogeneous probability sample of Norwegian employees. It was hypothesised that high levels of transformational leadership would be associated with a decrease, whereas high levels of laissez-faire leadership would be associated with an increase, in subsequent levels of anxiety. Reciprocal associations were also expected in that higher levels of anxiety were hypothesised to be related to subsequent increase in reports of laissez-faire, and decrease in reported exposure to transformational leadership. The sample comprised 1149 Norwegian employees. The design was a two-wave full panel study with a six-month time interval between the baseline and follow-up assessments. Contrary to hypotheses, neither transformational nor laissez-faire leadership were significantly related to subsequent levels of state anxiety. In support of hypotheses, baseline low levels of state anxiety were associated with reporting the immediate leader as less transformational and more laissez-faire six months later. In conclusion, the findings challenge theoretical models that explain leadership as a one-way superior–subordinate influence process.     

Cross-infection in epidemics spread by carriers

A block-structured transient Markov process is introduced to describe an epidemic spreading within two linked populations, of carriers and susceptibles. The epidemic terminates as soon as there are no more carriers or susceptibles present in the population. Our purpose is to determine the distribution of the final susceptible and carrier states, and of any integral path for the susceptible process. The transient epidemic state is also briefly discussed. Then, the model is extended to allow the recovery of infected individuals. Finally, several particular models, some known, are used for illustration.     

Imagining contact reduces prejudice in preschool children

We examined the effectiveness of an imagery‐based strategy designed to reduce prejudice in preschoolers in Italy. Three studies involving different target groups (disabled children, Black children) were conducted within Italian preschools. Children (4–6 years) were asked to imagine and draw meeting an outgroup member (Studies 1 and 2) or to imagine writing a letter to an outgroup member (Study 3). Results revealed that preschoolers in the experimental condition, relative to a control group, reported less intergroup bias in the form of contact intentions and resource allocation as well as greater behavioral inclusiveness; effects were mediated by improved intergroup attitudes. Our findings are important in understanding ways that promote positive intergroup relations in ways that align with the interests of young children.     

Positive quadrant dependence testing and constrained copula estimation

Positive quadrant dependence is a specific dependence structure that is of practical importance in for example modelling dependencies in insurance and actuarial sciences. This dependence structure imposes a constraint on the copula function. The interest in this paper is to test for positive quadrant dependence. One way to assess the distribution of the test statistics under the null hypothesis of positive quadrant dependence is to resample from a constrained copula. This requires constrained estimation of a copula function. We show that this use of resampling under a constrained copula improves considerably the power performance of existing testing procedures. We propose two resampling procedures, one based on a parametric constrained copula estimation and one relying on nonparametric estimation of a positive quadrant dependence copula, and discuss their properties. The finite‐sample performances of the resulting testing procedures are evaluated via a simulation study that also includes comparisons with existing tests. Finally, a data set of Danish fire insurance claims is tested for positive quadrant dependence. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 36–64; 2013 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada