SHOCKING STUFF: TECHNOLOGY,HOURS, AND FACTOR SUBSTITUTION

The response of hours to technology shocks is a key controversy in macroeconomics. We show that differences between RBC and NK models hinge on highly restrictive views of technology. We introduce CES production technologies and demonstrate that the response of hours depends on the factor‐augmenting nature of shocks and the capital–labor substitution elasticity in both models. We develop analytical expressions to establish the thresholds determining its sign. This opens new margins for shock identification combining theory and VAR evidence. We discuss how our models provide new robust restrictions for empirical work, especially using the labor income share.     

Exit is the answer: The political nature of Central American migration

This article provides evidence that many Central Americans who have joined the migrant caravans to the north manifest a profound discontent with the political institutions of their home countries. It is based on surveys with migrants in refugee centres, compared with similar data from the AmericasBarometer survey, and complemented with contextual qualitative data on the experience of immigrants passing through Mexico. The article shows that several Central Americans in route to the north do not trust their political institutions and express little support for their political system. It demonstrates that in contexts where economic instability, rampant crime, and environmental uncertainty prevail, many citizens keep exiting their countries under the conviction that government institutions have lost the capability to protect them from existential threats.     

Convergence criteria for interval-valued inequality indices

In this paper we introduce an interval-valued inequality index for random intervals based on a convex function. We show that if this function does not grow faster than x ^p , then the inequality index is continuous on the space of random intervals with finite p-th moment. A bound for the distance between the inequality indices of two random intervals is also constructed. An example is presented to motivate and illustrate the developments in this paper.     

On the Bayesian Estimation for the Uniform Scale Parameter via a Functional Equation

Bayes uniform model under the squared error loss function is shown to be completely identifiable by the form of the Bayes estimates of the scale parameter. This results in solving a specific functional equation. A complete characterization of differentiable Bayes estimators (BE) and generalized Bayes estimators (GBE) is given as well as relations between degrees of smoothness of the estimators and the priors. Characterizations of strong (generalized Bayes) Bayes sequence (SBS or SGBS) are also investigated. A SBS is a sequence of estimators (one for each sample size) where all its components are BE generated by the same prior measure. A complete solution is given for polynomial Bayesian estimation.     

Chisquared and related inducing pivot variables: an application to orthogonal mixed models

Abstract

We use chi-squared and related pivot variables to induce probability measures for model parameters, obtaining some results that will be useful on the induced densities. As illustration we considered mixed models with balanced cross nesting and used the algebraic structure to derive confidence intervals for the variance components. A numerical application is presented.     

Multivariate thin plate spline estimates for the posterior probabilities in the classification problem

A nonparametric estimate for the posterior probabilities in the classification problem using multivariate thin plate splines is proposed. This method presents a nonpararnetric alternative to logistic discrimination as well as to survival curve estimation. The degree of smoothness of the estimate is determined from the data using generalized crossvalidation.     

Parallel Process of Posttraumatic Stress and Externalizing Problems Among Youth at High Risk for Victimization

Research shows comorbidity between posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) and externalizing problems among polyvictimized youth. However, the impact of polyvictimization on the longitudinal co-development of PTSS and distinct forms of externalizing problems remains unclear. Growth trajectory modeling was used to address this gap. At ages 8, 12, and 16, polyvictimization was measured using youth, caregiver, and official records; whereas youth self-reported PTSS and caregivers reported aggression and delinquency. Results demonstrate that changes in PTSS and each externalizing domain were independent. Further, polyvictimization and PTSS/aggression were only associated at concurrent time points. In contrast, polyvictimization and delinquency were generally associated at concurrent and distal time points, suggesting that polyvictimization may have a more enduring impact on youths' delinquent behaviors than other symptoms.     

Positive coparenting previous to the COVID-19 pandemic can buffer regulatory problems in infants facing the COVID-19 pandemic

Coparenting can be a development-enhancing or risk-promoting environment for infant regulatory capacity, mainly in the presence of adversity. This study aimed to analyze the association between positive and negative coparenting previous to the COVID-19 pandemic and infant regulatory capacity in the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic, an adverse condition. A sample of 71 first-born infants and their mothers and fathers from a longitudinal cohort in Portugal were assessed at 2 weeks postpartum before the COVID-19 pandemic and again at 6 months postpartum, before (n = 35) or during the COVID-19 pandemic (n = 36). Parents completed measures of positive and negative coparenting and infant regulatory capacity in both assessment waves. Results revealed that the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic moderates the association between mothers' and fathers' positive coparenting previous to the COVID-19 pandemic and infant regulatory capacity at 6 months. The association between positive coparenting and regulatory capacity was stronger in infants facing the COVID-19 pandemic, than in infants who did not face the COVID-19 pandemic. Positive coparenting previous to the COVID-19 pandemic may be a development-enhancing environment for infant regulatory capacity in the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Positive coparenting may buffer regulatory problems in infants facing adverse conditions.