Nonparametric Bayes estimation of gap-time distribution with recurrent event data

Nonparametric Bayes (NPB) estimation of the gap-time survivor function governing the time to occurrence of a recurrent event in the presence of censoring is considered. In our Bayesian approach, the gap-time distribution, denoted by F, has a Dirichlet process prior with parameter α. We derive NPB and nonparametric empirical Bayes (NPEB) estimators of the survivor function F?=1?F and construct point-wise credible intervals. The resulting Bayes estimator of F? extends that based on single-event right-censored data, and the PL-type estimator is a limiting case of this Bayes estimator. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that the PL-type estimator has smaller biases but higher root-mean-squared errors (RMSEs) than those of the NPB and the NPEB estimators. Even in the case of a mis-specified prior measure parameter α, the NPB and the NPEB estimators have smaller RMSEs than the PL-type estimator, indicating robustness of the NPB and NPEB estimators. In addition, the NPB and NPEB estimators are smoother (in some sense) than the PL-type estimator.     

Migrant Indebtedness: Bangladeshis in the GCC Countries

Labour migration affects family economics in at least two ways: one is the outflow of indispensable family resources to meet the expenses incurred in the migration process and the other is the transfer in cash or kind from migrants to their non‐migrating families. This study primarily addresses the former flow, that is sources of funds for migration and resulting migrant indebtedness. Drawing on the experiences of Bangladeshi migrants in the GCC countries, this study explores the economic cost of migration, the extent of migrant indebtedness, and the implications of remittances on migrant families. This research exposes the complexity and multiplicity of the economic costs of migration to the GCC countries and reports that Bangladeshi migration to the Gulf states runs on debt, with migrants and their families indebting themselves in the migration process.     

DOES NATION BUILDING SPUR ECONOMIC GROWTH?

Nation building, the allocation of economic aid conditional on military assistance in conflict and post‐conflict environments, has cost the world trillions of dollars over the last half century. Yet few attempts have been made to quantify the potential economic growth effects for the recipient country from the provision of this aid. Using a 45‐year panel dataset, we construct a measure of nation building using a three‐way interaction term between military assistance, economic aid, and conflict regime. Considering that slow growing and problem‐prone countries may be less likely to receive aid, we instrument for economic aid by estimating donor‐to‐donee aid flows in a first‐stage procedure. Using this approach, we find that spending on nation building has positive growth effects during conflict periods, but that these effects disappear after conflict. (JEL F3, F4, O5)     

Integration policy in Singapore: a transnational inclusion approach

A number of models of integration have been developed to highlight the experiences of immigration and integration in the Western world. However, the existing models do not adequately capture the complexities of contemporary international immigration and integration, especially the integration process in the light of migrant transnationalism in Asia. This study examines the models of integration through a case study of Singapore. This paper introduces a new concept ‘transnational inclusion’ to conceptualize Singapore's initiative to embrace its transnational global Singaporeans as well as its transnational immigrants, estimated to make up one-fourth of the total population. The paper shows that a transnational inclusion model of integration can provide better insights into the dynamics of transnationalism and integration in today's complex migration scenario. We point to Singapore's integration approach that regards integrating migrants into the different spheres of the society as a process rather than an end.     

Constructing a consensus-based prevention outcome measurement instrument

This article describes Ohio's Prevention Evaluation Project (PEP). The purpose of the project was to develop a process and instrument to assess behavioral and attitudinal outcomes in primary drug abuse prevention programs targeting young people aged twelve to seventeen. One of PEP's principal achievements was the inclusion of community prevention program providers from throughout the state in the evaluation instrument development. The effort produced a self-administered questionnaire to capture data on young peoples' drug use practices, attitudes toward drugs, and problematic behaviors. Most significantly, the product produced was the acceptance and endorsement of community-based programs. The forty-one-item questionnaire has good to excellent reliability for virtually all measures, as assessed by the test-retest method. The instrument is a product of a process that brought together a university-based research team, state alcohol and drug abuse prevention administrators, and representatives of public programs. PEP demonstrates how to productively link service providers, administrators, and evaluators to develop a process for assessing the effectiveness of prevention programs. The process and tools described serve as a model for other communities wanting to evaluate their prevention programming.     

From Domination to Alliance: Shifting Strategies and Accumulation of Power by the Bureaucracy in Bangladesh

Traditionally, the bureaucrats on the Indian subcontinent were unaccustomed to perform under political supervision, and this mindset continued to affect their relationship with politicians in Bangladesh. In the early years of Bangladesh as an independent state, the bureaucracy came under pressure to operate under political supervision, but this phase did not last long. Subsequent phases of military rule reinstated the bureaucrats in their entrenched positions and strengthened their grip over the system. After the restoration of electoral democracy in 1991, the dominant role of bureaucrats continued, mainly due to the tendency to practice confrontational politics and disregard to the political institutions. The bureaucracy draws strength from its permanent stature, organization, expertise and experience in administering the country. Using the resources at their disposal, this institution has been able to exert considerable influence. A number of reforms have been introduced to enhance the accountability of the bureaucracy. The response has been the development of a symbiotic relationship between the politicians and bureaucrats. The bureaucracy has changed its stance from a dominating approach to one of alliance with other powerful groups in the system and continues to exercise power. This has resulted in increasing politicization of the bureaucracy which affects the performance of the critical components of the government.     

Evaluation of HIV risk reduction intervention programs via latent growth model

The latent growth model (LGM) has drawn increasing attention in behavioral studies using longitudinal data. The LGM captures the level and trajectory of behavior change, variation in both the initial status and the trend of behavior change, as well as the time-ordered covariation between the initial status and change. This study demonstrates how the LGM can be applied in the evaluation of intervention programs targeting HIV risk behavior among drug users. Multi-group piecewise latent growth models were fit to longitudinal data with three repeated response measures.     

Exact Poly-K Test

For animal carcinogenicity study with multiple dose groups, positive trend test and pairwise comparisons of treated groups with control are generally performed using the Cochran-Armitage, Peto test, or Poly-K test. These tests are asymptotically normal. The exact version of Cochran-Armitage and Peto tests are available based on the permutation test assuming fixed column and row totals. For Poly-K test column totals depend on the mortality pattern of the animals and can not be kept fixed over the permutations of the animals. In this work a modification of the permutation test is suggested that can be applied on exact Poly-K test.     

Women's employment in Bangladesh agriculture: composition, determinants and scope

Gender composition of labour use and factors determining demand and supply of female labour in crop production is examined using survey data from 14 villages in two agro-ecological regions of Bangladesh. The share of women in labour use ranges between 11–18% in foodgrain (rice and wheat) and 14–48% in non-cereal (highest for vegetables) production. Incidence of female labour hire is very low and varies directly with land size classes while supply from family varies inversely. Cultivation of diverse crops (local and modern varieties of rice, jute, oilseeds and vegetables), education as well as women's ownership of land increases demand for hired female labour. On the other hand, membership in non-governmental organisation and women's ownership of land decreases supply of female labour from the family. Also, sharp regional variation exists in hiring female labour. A decentralised crop diversification policy, gender sensitive educational program as well as institutional arrangement to increase women's access to land would promote women's gainful employment.