Planning for a university,using interactive forecasting

The benefits of programme review, forward planning and control have been demonstrated at the university-wide level. Within a faculty or department, there is also a clear need for developing and using planning methods which are rationally based and forward looking if appropriate responses to changing social and academic trends are to be made. This paper delineates a number of planning and control variables encountered at the faculty or departmental level, describes the development and use of a computer-based interactive forecasting model, and discusses the advantages and limitations of such models in planning a faculty's progress toward its goals.     

The Function of Avoidance in Improving the Understanding of Disaster Recovery

Functional avoidance as an intermittent coping mechanism is a necessary component in disaster recovery. By temporarily avoiding losses after disaster, survivors can secure basic needs and begin rebuilding. It is not until recovery projects are completed that mental health outcomes become apparent. Many individuals begin a healthy grieving process; however, for others, where avoidance extends past the completion of normalizing tasks it becomes pathological. This study presents the concept of functional avoidance and investigates the point at which it becomes dysfunctional using case examples and data from a mental health clinic. Findings suggest increased emotional distress, depression, and posttraumatic stress disorder over 3 years after Hurricane Katrina.     

Assessing God Locus of Control as a Factor in College Students’ Alcohol Use and Sexual Behavior

Abstract. Objectives: This study explored God locus of control beliefs (ie, God's control over behavior) regarding their influence on alcohol use and sexual behavior as an alternative religiosity measure to religious behaviors, which does not capture perceived influence of religiosity. Additionally, demographic differences in religious beliefs were explored. Methods: College students aged 18–24 (N = 324) completed a survey between April 2012 and March 2013. Principal components and multivariate analyses were conducted. Results: Findings suggest that measures provide reliable, valid data from college students. God locus of control is linked to not consuming alcohol or engaging in sex. There were differences regarding relationship status and religious denomination. Conclusions: God locus of control beliefs are an appropriate construct for collecting data about college students’ religiosity. Furthermore, health educators at faith-based institutions could incorporate this construct into their programming, encouraging abstinence but also behaving responsibly for those who do drink and are sexually experienced.     

Consumer-Phase Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis Risk Assessment for Egg-Containing Food Products

We describe a one-dimensional probabilistic model of the role of domestic food handling behaviors on salmonellosis risk associated with the consumption of eggs and egg-containing foods. Six categories of egg-containing foods were defined based on the amount of egg contained in the food, whether eggs are pooled, and the degree of cooking practiced by consumers. We used bootstrap simulation to quantify uncertainty in risk estimates due to sampling error, and sensitivity analysis to identify key sources of variability and uncertainty in the model. Because of typical model characteristics such as nonlinearity, interaction between inputs, thresholds, and saturation points, Sobol's method, a novel sensitivity analysis approach, was used to identify key sources of variability. Based on the mean probability of illness, examples of foods from the food categories ranked from most to least risk of illness were: (1) home-made salad dressings/ice cream; (2) fried eggs/boiled eggs; (3) omelettes; and (4) baked foods/breads. For food categories that may include uncooked eggs (e.g., home-made salad dressings/ice cream), consumer handling conditions such as storage time and temperature after food preparation were the key sources of variability. In contrast, for food categories associated with undercooked eggs (e.g., fried/soft-boiled eggs), the initial level of Salmonella contamination and the log10 reduction due to cooking were the key sources of variability. Important sources of uncertainty varied with both the risk percentile and the food category under consideration. This work adds to previous risk assessments focused on egg production and storage practices, and provides a science-based approach to inform consumer risk communications regarding safe egg handling practices.     

‘You tell all the stories’: Using narrative to explore hierarchy within a Community of Practice1

Recent discussion of the Community of Practice (CofP) ( Davies 2005 ) has suggested that there are certain limitations to the approach with regard to how it accounts for internal hierarchy and community membership. Eckert and Wenger (2005: 588) have suggested that the only way to evaluate such criticism (and avoid building an inappropriately rigid conception of power into CofP theory) is to explore how hierarchies operate within CofPs. This paper offers such an exploration. Using data from a long‐term ethnographic study of a high school in the north‐west of England, this paper will use narrative analysis (drawing upon the work of Labov and Waletsky [1967] 1997 amongst others) to explore the interactional space in which speakers actively negotiate their personal and community behaviour. The analysis focuses upon the role individuals play as narrators of community practice and illustrates that status inequalities between individual CofP members do not necessarily result in inequitable allocation of control within the CofP.     

The level and growth of union/nonunion relative wage effects, 1967–1977

This paper pools cross-section data to obtain an estimate of the overall effects of unions on relative wages for the period 1967 through 1977. We found the average union wage premium for all workers to be roughly 24 percent, but that this premium varies substantially between subgroups of workers. Our analysis showed that real wage rates increased faster in the union sector than in the nonunion sector between 1967 through 1977. However, we found that this relative growth pattern in wages was caused by economic conditions rather than in any fundamental shift in the power of unions. We wish to thank James S. Cunningham, H. Gregg Lewis, and John Pencavel for helpful comments.     

Inférence statistique dans les processus stochastiques: Aperçu historique

The study of statistical inference for stochastic processes has evolved along two paths. Some problems related to particular processes have been studied, and also some trials to extend general results obtained for independent identically distributed random variables have been made. We retrace the first main contributions, evaluate their influence, and give an idea of the evolution of the research in the field of statistical inference made with observations coming from a stochastic process.     

Summative scales for measuring community satisfaction

Results of this study indicate that pen and paper questionnaire procedures can be successfully adapted to random digit dialing telephone interview methods. Further, the study produced a reliable instrument for measuring attitudes about how residents perceive their communities as a place to live.