Long-term planning for Indian shipping

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the urgent need for a comprehensive long-term plan for Indian shipping industry in consonance with the requirements of domestic and overseas trade. The problems bedevilling the shipping industry are analysed in order to focus on the constituents of a comprehensive long-term plan. Though this analysis is related to the Indian environment, it is equally pertinent to the most developing countries.     

Estimating the common hazard rate of two exponential distributions with ordered location parameters

This paper is concerned with estimating the common hazard rate of two exponential distributions with unknown and ordered location parameters under a general class of bowl-shaped scale invariant loss functions. The inadmissibility of the best affine equivariant estimator is established by deriving an improved estimator. Another estimator is obtained which improves upon the best affine equivariant estimator. A class of improving estimators is derived using the integral expression of risk difference approach of Kubokawa [A unified approach to improving equivariant estimators. Ann Statist. 1994;22(1):290–299]. These results are applied to specific loss functions. It is further shown that these estimators can be derived for four important sampling schemes: (i) complete and i.i.d. sample, (ii) record values, (iii) type-II censoring, and (iv) progressive Type-II censoring. A simulation study is carried out for numerically comparing the risk performance of these proposed estimators.     

Bayesian inference on P(X > Y) in bivariate Rayleigh model

In the literature, assuming independence of random variables X and Y, statistical estimation of the stress–strength parameter R = P(X > Y) is intensively investigated. However, in some real applications, the strength variable X could be highly dependent on the stress variable Y. In this paper, unlike the common practice in the literature, we discuss on estimation of the parameter R where more realistically X and Y are dependent random variables distributed as bivariate Rayleigh model. We derive the Bayes estimates and highest posterior density credible intervals of the parameters using suitable priors on the parameters. Because there are not closed forms for the Bayes estimates, we will use an approximation based on Laplace method and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to obtain the Bayes estimate of R and unknown parameters. Finally, simulation studies are conducted in order to evaluate the performances of the proposed estimators and analysis of two data sets are provided.     

A Simple Probabilistic Proof for the Alternating Convolution of the Central Binomial Coefficients

This note presents a simple probabilistic proof of the identity for the alternating convolution of the central binomial coefficients. The proof of the identity involves the computation of moments of order n for the product of standard normal random variables.     

Estimation and prediction for an inverted exponentiated Rayleigh distribution under hybrid censoring

In this paper we consider estimation of unknown parameters of an inverted exponentiated Rayleigh distribution when it is known that data are hybrid Type I censored. The maximum likelihood and Bayes estimates are derived. In sequel interval estimates are also constructed. We further consider one- and two-sample prediction of future observations and also obtain prediction intervals. The performance of proposed methods of estimation and prediction is studied using simulations and an illustrative example is discussed in support of the suggested methods.     

A novel spatial outlier detection technique

Spatial outliers are spatially referenced objects whose non spatial attribute values are significantly different from the corresponding values in their spatial neighborhoods. In other words, a spatial outlier is a local instability or an extreme observation that deviates significantly in its spatial neighborhood, but possibly not be in the entire dataset. In this article, we have proposed a novel spatial outlier detection algorithm, location quotient (LQ) for multiple attributes spatial datasets, and compared its performance with the well-known mean and median algorithms for multiple attributes spatial datasets, in the literature. In particular, we have applied the mean, median, and LQ algorithms on a real dataset and on simulated spatial datasets of 13 different sizes to compare their performances. In addition, we have calculated area under the curve values in all the cases, which shows that our proposed algorithm is more powerful than the mean and median algorithms in almost all the considered cases and also plotted receiver operating characteristic curves in some cases.     

Estimation of population product in presence of non-response in successive sampling

The design of this paper is to examine the problem of estimation of finite population product in mail surveys for the current occasion in the context of sampling on two occasions is attempted when there is non-response on both the occasions. Estimators for the current occasion are derived as a particular case when there is non-response on first and second occasion only. The gain in efficiency of the proposed estimate over the direct estimate using no information gathered on the first occasion is computed. The proposed strategy has been compared with other estimators. An empirical study is carried out to study the performance of the proposed strategy.     

Economic security for the elderly in India: an overview

The basic concept of social security is not new in India. Traditionally, a sort of moral economy existed to provide security to older destitute and other vulnerable groups in society. However, gradually, traditional support systems are disappearing, and state-based social security systems have come into existence. Under standardized economic security policies, government is covering retirement benefits for those in the organized sector; economic security benefits for those in the unorganized sector; and old-age pension for rural elderly. These are contributory as well as non-contributory programs. Besides life insurance approaches, savings-linked insurance and Annapurna (food security) are other important programs. However, in terms of coverage, program quality and effectiveness have been largely criticized by social security experts, suggesting immediate reforms to old-age programs.