In this study, we construct a multivariate model that assesses the risk of an outbreak of civil war in a country over a period of 5 years into the future. In addition to structural factors of state weakness, which have dominated the literature on civil war onset, this model includes repression of basic human rights to personal integrity – an important harbinger of wars to come – as an aspect of state behavior. Our aim is not to explore the causal factors of civil war onset, but to build a model that includes indicators that correlate with civil war outbreak and may be used to predict it. Based on two versions of the model – logit and neural network – out-of-sample risk assessments for three different time periods are generated and compared to the historical record of civil war outbreak during those years. In addition, the model’s ability to produce in-sample risk assessments over a 5-year period is tested. Finally, we compute truly predictive civil war risk assessments for all countries for which data are available, for the years 2008–2012. The analyses show that with a relatively simple model and based on publicly available data sources, meaningful civil war risk assessments can be computed. The quality of the predictions exceeds that of prominent studies, in which the risk of interstate war is assessed. 相似文献
This study focuses on identifying the specific uses of management control tools in public organizations. This research is based on interviews with managers from 43 organizations in the healthcare sector. Data was analyzed and interpreted through the methodology proposed by Gioia et al. Organizational research methods, 16(1), 15-31, (2013). The different uses specified by managers of these organizations were compared with Henri’s work Accounting, organizations and society, 31(1), 77-103, (2006). Findings show matching elements, as well as differences in public sector specificities. This study ends with a discussion about the non-use of existing tools, the multi-uses of tools and the observable dichotomy between political and management uses.
Given a network G=(V,E), we say that a subset of vertices S⊆V has radius r if it is spanned by a tree of depth at most r. We are interested in determining whether G has a cutset that can be written as the union of k sets of radius r. This generalizes the notion of k-vertex connectivity, since in the special case r=0, a set spanned by a tree of depth at most r is a single vertex. 相似文献
In this paper, we theoretically characterize robust empirically implementable normative criteria for evaluating socially risky situations. Socially risky situations are modeled as distributions, among individuals, of lotteries on a finite set of state-contingent pecuniary consequences. Individuals are assumed to have selfish Von Neumann–Morgenstern preferences for these socially risky situations. We provide empirically implementable criteria that coincide with the unanimity, over a reasonably large class of such individual preferences, of anonymous and Pareto-inclusive Von Neuman Morgenstern social rankings of risks. The implementable criteria can be interpreted as sequentialexpected poverty dominance. An illustration of the usefulness of the criteria for comparing the exposure to unemployment risk of different segments of the French and US workforce is also provided. 相似文献
This paper proposes a comparison of the results of tax policy analysis obtained on the basis of unitary and collective representations
of the household. We first generate labour supplies consistent with the collective rationality, by use of a model calibrated
on microdata as described in Vermeulen et al. [Collective Models of Household Labor Supply with Nonconvex Budget Sets and
Nonparticipation: A Calibration Approach (2006)]. A unitary model is then estimated on these collective data and unitary and collective responses to a tax reform are compared.
We focus on the introduction of linear taxation in Germany. The exercise is replicated for other European countries and other
topical reforms. Distortions due to the use of a unitary model turn out to be important in predicting labour supply adjustments,
in the design of tax revenue neutral reforms, and in predicting a reform’s welfare implications.
In this paper, we are interested in the study of beta kernel density estimators from an asymptotic minimax point of view. These estimators allows to estimate density functions with support in [0,1]. It is well-known that beta kernel estimators are - on the contrary of classical kernel estimators - “free of boundary effect” and thus are very useful in practice. The goal of this paper is to prove that there is a price to pay: for very regular density functions or for certain losses, these estimators are not minimax. Nevertheless they are minimax for classical regularities such as regularity of order two or less than two, supposed commonly in the practice and for some classical losses. 相似文献
Waterfall plots are used to describe changes in tumor size observed in clinical studies. They are frequently used to illustrate the overall drug response in oncology clinical trials because of its simple representation of results. Unfortunately, this visual display suffers a number of limitations including (1) potential misguidance by masking the time dynamics of tumor size, (2) ambiguous labelling of the y‐axis, and (3) low data‐to‐ink ratio. We offer some alternatives to address these shortcomings and recommend moving away from waterfall plots to the benefit of plots showing the individual time profiles of sum of lesion diameters (according to RECIST). The spider plot presents the individual changes in tumor measurements over time relative to baseline tumor burden. Baseline tumor size is a well‐known confounding factor of drug effect which has to be accounted for when analyzing data in early clinical trials. While spider plots are conveniently correct for baseline tumor size, they cannot be presented in isolation. Indeed, percentage change from baseline has suboptimal statistical properties (including skewed distribution) and can be overly optimistic in favor of drug efficacy. We argued that plots of raw data (referred to as spaghetti plots) should always accompany spider plots to provide an equipoised illustration of the drug effect on lesion diameters. 相似文献
This study investigates the relationship between the carbon extractive sector in Canada and renewable energy development. Specifically, it examines the strategies employed by Canadian carbon‐capital firms to shape and control alternative energy and considers if we are witnessing signs of “transition capture” as some oil, gas, and coal firms invest in a gradual shift toward “climate capitalism.” I investigate first, investments by large Canada‐based fossil fuel companies in renewable energy and second, interlocking directorate relations between the fossil fuel sector and the renewables industry. Findings suggest the possibility of a long‐term strategic orientation toward a climate capitalist model of development by some carbon‐capital firms; however, this alignment remains highly tentative, with evidence pointing to an industry that is largely without plans for energy transition. 相似文献