Cross‐Milieu Terrorist Collaboration: Using Game Theory to Assess the Risk of a Novel Threat

This article uses a game‐theoretic approach to analyze the risk of cross‐milieu terrorist collaboration—the possibility that, despite marked ideological differences, extremist groups from very different milieus might align to a degree where operational collaboration against Western societies becomes possible. Based upon theoretical insights drawn from a variety of literatures, a bargaining model is constructed that reflects the various benefits and costs for terrorists’ collaboration across ideological milieus. Analyzed in both sequential and simultaneous decision‐making contexts and through numerical simulations, the model confirms several theoretical arguments. The most important of these is that although likely to be quite rare, successful collaboration across terrorist milieus is indeed feasible in certain circumstances. The model also highlights several structural elements that might play a larger role than previously recognized in the collaboration decision, including that the prospect of nonmaterial gains (amplification of terror and reputational boost) plays at least as important a role in the decision to collaborate as potential increased capabilities does. Numerical simulation further suggests that prospects for successful collaboration over most scenarios (including operational) increase when a large, effective Islamist terrorist organization initiates collaboration with a smaller right‐wing group, as compared with the other scenarios considered. Although the small number of historical cases precludes robust statistical validation, the simulation results are supported by existing empirical evidence of collaboration between Islamists and right‐ or left‐wing extremists. The game‐theoretic approach, therefore, provides guidance regarding the circumstances under which such an unholy alliance of violent actors is likely to succeed.     

The Infrequency of Family Violence

We examined the frequency of domestic violence and verbal altercations relative to the level of domestic conflict using survey data from the United States and Korea. We found evidence that individuals are generally less likely to use violence during an altercation if the antagonist is a family member than if the antagonist is a stranger. People apparently have stronger inhibitions about hitting family members than about hitting strangers, and, as a result, domestic violence is infrequent relative to the level of domestic conflict. In addition, verbal altercations are more likely to occur in conflicts with partners and children than in conflicts involving strangers, suggesting that the relaxation of rules of politeness contributes to the expression of grievances and ultimately the use of violence in these relationships.     

Relational Paradox: Toward a Language of Interactional Sequences*

The author discusses and clarifies the “Theory of Logical Types” which forms the cornerstone of the “Double Bind Hypothesis.” A clear distinction is made between single sentence double binds and double binds that evolve in an interaction over time. The crucial term “metacommunication” is redefined in a manner consistent with logical type theory. The locus of message-level confusion is shifted from the messages of the sender to the arena of the communicant's interaction. Analysis of the interactional arena reveals a phenomenon which the author labels “Relational Paradox.” Several examples are given which illustrate how paradoxes can arise even if neither interactant is sending messages which are intrinsically bewildering.     

Assessing reporting patterns of child sexual abuse within the Catholic Church using discontinuities in model parameter timeseries

Prior to 2002, little was known about sexual abuse within the Catholic Church. After the Boston Globe broke the story about John Geoghan - a priest in the Boston Archdiocese who was accused of abusing numerous children, convicted of one count of indecent assault, and eventually murdered in prison - the Church had many questions to answer. To this end, the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) commissioned John Jay College of Criminal Justice to research the nature and scope, as well as the causes and context of child sexual abuse within the Catholic Church.This research analyzes the data from the John Jay studies using a new quantitative technique, capable of adjusting for distortions introduced by delays in abuse reporting. By isolating discontinuities in model parameter timeseries, we determine changes in reporting patterns occurred during the period 1982-1988. A posteriori to the analysis, we provide some possible explanations for the changes in abuse reporting associated with the change-point. While the scope of this paper is limited to presenting a new methodological approach within the frame of a particular case study, the techniques are more broadly applicable in settings where reporting lag is manifested.     

The Effects of Personality and Management Role on Perceived Values in Business Settings

This paper examines the effects ofpersonality variables and functional management role,either entrepreneur, manager in an entrepreneurialfirm, manager in a traditional firm, or small businessowner, on perceived business values. Functionalmanagement role had minimal discernible effects;personality variables differentiated entrepreneursfrom managers and produced many effects for ratings ofbusiness values. Results are discussed in terms ofMBTI and DISC theoretical constructs and theirimplications for entrepreneurship and management.     

Domains explaining the life quality of dairy farm couples

The purpose of the study reported here is to identify domains which explain the life quality of dairy farm husbands and wives. A further purpose is to identify domains which would explain life quality when the domain unique to farming is deleted. One hundred sixteen dairy farm couples were interviewed in 1986, when a financial crisis in agriculture had reached the western states. The analysis is done by stepwise regression. Satisfaction with farm work is an important explanation of husbands' and wives' life quality. When farm work is omitted from the equations, satisfaction with self is among important domains explaining life quality.Research reported in this paper was partially funded by the Utah Agricultural Experiment Station, Utah State University, Logan, UT.Norleen M. Ackerman received her Ph.D. from Michigan State University. She is an Assistant Professor, Department of Home Economics and Consumer Education, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322-2910. Her research interests include the well being of farm families, consumer information, and consumer purchase behavior.Glen O. Jensen received his Ph.D. from Utah State University. He is a Professor in the Department of Family and Human Development, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322-2905. His research interests include the rural family, teen pregnancy, and marriage enrichment.DeeVon Bailey received his Ph.D. from Texas A & M. He is an Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322-3530. His research interests include economic issues related to farm families, agricultural marketing and farm efficiency.     

Understanding the Adoption Process of National Security Technology: An Integration of Diffusion of Innovations and Volitional Behavior Theories

After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the U.S. government initiated several national security technology adoption programs. The American public, however, has been skeptical about these initiatives and adoption of national security technologies has been mandated, rather than voluntary. We propose and test a voluntary behavioral intention formation model for the adoption of one type of new security technology: portable radiation detectors. Portable radiation detectors are an efficient way of detecting radiological and nuclear threats and could potentially prevent loss of life and damage to individuals’ health. However, their functioning requires that a critical mass of individuals use them on a daily basis. We combine the explanatory advantages of diffusion of innovation with the predictive power of two volitional behavior frameworks: the theory of reasoned action and the health belief model. A large sample survey (N = 1,482) investigated the influence of factors identified in previous diffusion of innovation research on portable radiation detector adoption intention. Results indicated that nonfinancial incentives, as opposed to financial incentives, should be emphasized in persuasive communications aimed at fostering adoption. The research provides a new integration of diffusion of innovation elements with determinants of volitional behavior from persuasion literature, and offers recommendations on effective communication about new security technologies to motivate public adoption and enhance national safety.     

Expert Views on Biological Threat Characterization for the U.S. Government: A Delphi Study

Biological threat characterization (BTC) involves laboratory research conducted for the purpose of biological defense. BTC research is important for improving biological risk assessment and informing resource prioritization. However, there are also risks involved in BTC work, including potential for escape from the laboratory or the misuse of research results. Using a modified Delphi study to gather opinions from U.S. experts in biosecurity and biodefense, this analysis explores what principles and safeguards can maximize the benefits of BTC research and ensure that it is conducted safely and securely. Delphi participants were asked to give their opinions about the need for BTC research by the U.S. government (USG); risks of conducting this research; rules or guidelines that should be in place to ensure that the work is safe and accurate; components of an effective review and prioritization process; rules for when characterization of a pathogen can be discontinued; and recommendations about who in the USG should be responsible for BTC prioritization decisions. The findings from this research reinforce the need for BTC research at the federal level as well as a need for continued review and oversight of this research to maximize its effectiveness and reduce the risks involved. It also demonstrates the need for further discussion of what would constitute a “red line” for biothreat characterization research—research that should not be performed for safety, ethical, or practical reasons—and guidelines for when there is sufficient research in a given topic area so that the research can be considered completed.     

Trends in Alcohol Consumption Among Undergraduate Students at a Northeastern Public University, 2002–2008

Abstract

Objective: This study examined alcohol consumption patterns and trends at a public university in the Northeast from 2002 to 2008. Participants: Stratified random sampling was used to select undergraduate students enrolled in courses during spring semesters in 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2008. Methods: Data were collected during regularly scheduled classes for 4 measures of alcohol consumption and 5 demographic categories using the Core Alcohol and Drug Survey. Results: Four groups showed significant increases in both frequency and volume of alcohol consumption—students who were female, over 21 years of age or over, living off-campus, or performing well academically. There were no decreasing trends for any demographic group. These results differ from national college health surveys, which have shown alcohol use remaining steady during this period. Conclusions: Campus-specific trend data can provide unique perspectives and guide programming efforts. These trends suggest a need for new intervention strategies on this campus.