解码理论在日语听力理解中的运用

在日语学习中,因受语言环境和学习方法的限制,听力被认为是提高日语水平和成绩的一大难关。作者遵循听觉系统中听力的解码理论,以一年一度的国际日本语能力测试题为例,提出并具体分析了提高日语听力的三种模式———预测法、捕捉法和贯穿法,并指出运用这些技巧时应注意的几个问题。期望学习者能克服心理障碍,讲究科学的方法,把这些模式积极运用到平时的训练和测试中去,以此来提高日语听力水平和成绩。     

Testing How Management Matters in an Era of Government by Performance Management

Public administration finds itself in an era of government byperformance management, which is reflected in the widespreadassumption that management is a key determinant of performance,and that it is reasonable to expect managers to measurably improveorganizational effectiveness. This article joins a growing literaturein seeking to conceptualize and empirically test how externalenvironmental influences and internal management factors combineto create performance, relying on data from the 2002–2003National Administrative Studies Project (NASP-II) survey ofstate government health and human services officials. We categorizemanagerial efforts to facilitate organizational performanceas determined either through their interactions with the organizationalenvironment, or through employing workable levers to changeinternal organizational culture, structure, and technology.Among the external environmental variables we find that thesupport of elected officials and the influence of the publicand media have a positive impact on effectiveness. Among internalmanagement choices, the ability to create a developmental organizationalculture, establish a focus on results through goal clarity,and decentralize decision-making authority are all positivelyassociated with organizational effectiveness.     

Asymptotic bias in the linear mixed effects model under non-ignorable missing data mechanisms

Summary.  In longitudinal studies, missingness of data is often an unavoidable problem. Estimators from the linear mixed effects model assume that missing data are missing at random. However, estimators are biased when this assumption is not met. In the paper, theoretical results for the asymptotic bias are established under non-ignorable drop-out, drop-in and other missing data patterns. The asymptotic bias is large when the drop-out subjects have only one or no observation, especially for slope-related parameters of the linear mixed effects model. In the drop-in case, intercept-related parameter estimators show substantial asymptotic bias when subjects enter late in the study. Eight other missing data patterns are considered and these produce asymptotic biases of a variety of magnitudes.     

Feminism,militarism, and attitudes toward the role of women in the military

Attitudes toward the role of women in the military require the reconciliation of two often conflicting beliefs: those toward the roles and rights of women and those toward the military. This article explores the relationships between positive attitudes toward women’s roles throughout society, or feminism, and positive attitudes toward defense spending, or militarism, both with each other and with attitudes toward gender integration in the military. Results of this analysis show there to be a negative relationship between feminism and militarism, a positive relationship between feminism and gender integration, and a negative relationship between militarism and gender integration. The results of multiple regression analysis show that feminism is the strongest predictor of attitudes toward gender integration, while militarism is weak in its predictive ability. The author argues that the issue of women in the military is more one of women’s equality than of national defense and that policy discussions should be structured accordingly. She is currently conducting research which examines how women in the United States military employ strategies to manage gender and sexuality. This research provides evidence for the claim that gender is not simply a role or an attribute, but that gender is created and recreated through our interactions with others.     

The gambling lifestyle: I. theory

This paper describes the lifestyle model of gambling behavior in which compulsive gambling behavior is conceptualized as a lifestyle characterized by pseudoresponsibility, self-ascension, hypercompetitiveness, and social rule breaking/bending/ twisting. The underlying premise of this theory is that gambling behavior takes on the appearance of a lifestyle when it is viewed by the individual as a viable means of enhancing self-worth, minimizing personal insecurity, and controlling fear. Three primary areas of theoretical and research interest are covered in this paper: (1) the theoretical underpinnings of lifestyle theory; (2) the individual components (conditions, choice, cognition) of a gambling lifestyle; and (3) the developmental progression of a gambling lifestyle.The author would like to thank Henry Lesieur and anonymous reviewers of earlier versions of this paper for their helpful comments. The assertions and opinions contained herein are the private views of the author and should not be construed as official or as reflecting the views of the Federal Bureau of Prisons or United States Department of Justice.     

A Semi-Parametric Quantile Function Estimator for Use in Bootstrap Estimation Procedures

In this note we develop a new quantile function estimator called the tail extrapolation quantile function estimator. The estimator behaves asymptotically exactly the same as the standard linear interpolation estimator. For finite samples there is small correction towards estimating the extreme quantiles. We illustrate that by employing this new estimator we can greatly improve the coverage probabilities of the standard bootstrap percentile confidence intervals. The method does not reqiure complicated calculations and hence it should appeal to the statistical practitioner.     

解决我国农业剩余劳动力就业问题的思路

农业剩余劳动力的就业问题 ,是我国经济中的一个重要问题。要解决好这一问题 ,就需要制定引导农业劳动力转移的战略 ,多方寻求劳动力转移的途径 ,努力提高农业劳动力素质 ,建立健全劳动力市场 ,营造有利于农业剩余劳动力就业的制度环境 ,控制人口过快增长     

Medicine on the line? Computer‐mediated social support and advice for people with diabetes

The advent of thousands of Usenet groups on the Internet, covering a vast range of medical and welfare issues and ostensibly devoted to the mutual social support of participating members, has raised the potential for the development of new forms of 'virtual' health care. This article critically analyses the use by people with diabetes of one such Usenet group. It seeks to establish, first, the extent to which such a site provides some demonstrable measure of social support to its participants. This is approached by undertaking a structural analysis of the site to identify the extent of usage, and the nature of supporting interventions using a fivefold classification (instrumental, informational, esteem and social companionship and other). Second, the article attempts to identify any disparity between the lay health-knowledge in evidence and biomedical opinions proffered by the use of a panel of consultant diabetiologists. The results of the analysis suggest that the diabetes newsgroup provides an example of an active forum for largely well-informed participants who routinely use the media as an aid to the reflexive management of their medical condition. It also raises the prospect of a renegotiated relationship between medical knowledge and lay experience based upon shared learning     

林业发展阶段研究概述

阶段性是事物发展必须遵循的一个客观规律,林业的发展同样也具有阶段性.只有充分认识各个时期林业发展所处的历史阶段和相应特征,才能更好地制定政策和发展战略.该文将以往的林业方面的阶段性研究加以综述,以期获得收益和启发,并为以后的研究打下基础.