Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts

Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals. The latter can be based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process, on empirical analyses of past forecast errors, or on a combination of the two. In this article, we develop and test prediction intervals based on empirical analyses of past forecast errors for counties in the United States. Using decennial census data from 1900 to 2000, we apply trend extrapolation techniques to develop a set of county population forecasts; calculate forecast errors by comparing forecasts to subsequent census counts; and use the distribution of errors to construct empirical prediction intervals. We find that empirically-based prediction intervals provide reasonably accurate predictions of the precision of population forecasts, but provide little guidance regarding their tendency to be too high or too low. We believe the construction of empirically-based prediction intervals will help users of small-area population forecasts measure and evaluate the uncertainty inherent in population forecasts and plan more effectively for the future.     

Parenting,Uncertainty, and Expert Advice: How Privileged American Families Work with Private Counselors in Their Children's College Race

This article uses privileged families who hire Independent Educational Consultants (IECs) as an instance to examine how privileged parents collaborate with individuals whom they consider educational experts to support their children in the college race. We argue that advantaged parents' anxieties about their children have created a market for IECs who provide expert advice in order to mitigate the uncertainties that these parents experience and to manage various goals that they want to achieve at an important turning point in their children's lives. Drawing primarily on interviews with parents who work with IECs, we introduce the concept of “collaborative cultivation” to analyze the processes whereby advantaged parents rely on the expertise and expert status of private counselors to cope with their and their children's vulnerability in the college race while at the same time preparing their children for the unknown future. The parental method of “concerted cultivation” reveals how elite parents rely on individuals they perceive as experts to establish “bridges” between their own social worlds and the academic worlds that appear to beyond their control. This bridging labor points to the myriad cultural beliefs enacted to justify the child‐rearing goals that privileged parents wish to accomplish by working with IECs.     

The Informal Sector: A Review and Agenda for Management Research

Despite its connotations of non‐compliance, illegality, social exploitation and marginality, the informal sector is a substantial contributor to economic life in developing countries and, increasingly, in more technologically advanced activities. Its prevalence in developed economies has also become more widely recognized. In light of its significance, this paper reviews research on the informal sector from a management and organization scholarship perspective, rather than from an entrepreneurship view, as has been the focus until now. It sets out the atypical management practices that are inherent in the sector, explores the under‐researched relationship between formal and informal firms, and highlights definitional, conceptual and other limitations in extant research. As a step in resolving these issues, the authors present a conceptual model of formality and informality in a three‐dimensional framework that highlights an organizational infrastructure dimension, a view of firms operating along a continuum, and a multi‐level analytical context. Building on this, the authors detail opportunities for enhanced appreciation of in situ management and organizational practices in the informal sector and outline tools for pursuing a management and organization scholarship agenda. Overall, the authors argue that management scholarship has great potential to improve understanding of the informal sector, and that the informal sector provides opportunities to advance management theory, research and practice.     

The Use of the Partnering Concept for Public–Private Collaboration: How Well Does it Really Work?

This paper critically scrutinizes the key success factors and tools described in the partnering literature by exploring how they are implemented in a public–private partnering collaboration. In addition to this the paper investigates to what extent these tools facilitate the relationship between the parties in a partnering process. The empirical data consist of two longitudinal case studies. Both cases are large and complex urban development projects in the Swedish water and sewage industry. The results from the cases were ambiguous and positive; as well, some negative outcomes were present. Further, the processes were in both cases far from easy and it required a lot of effort from the parties in the collaboration to make the collaboration work and establish a culture based on trust, especially higher up in the organization. As could be expected, the reality is thus far more complex and cumbersome than previous studies indicate.     

Women's Marriage Behavior Following a Premarital Birth in Sub‐Saharan Africa

This study examines the relationship between premarital childbearing and the timing of women's entry into their first marriage in sub‐Saharan Africa. The study shows that African women who have a premarital birth generally experience later transitions to marriage than do their childless peers. Although the birth of a child precipitates a quicker transition to marriage initially, unmarried mothers, on average, marry at older ages than their childless peers and remain single for between 2 and 14 years. Evidence from a subsample of countries confirms that the time between having a child and first marriage has lengthened slightly in some countries; however, this reflects mainly the overall trend toward later marriage, rather than a further bifurcation of the marital trajectories of mothers versus childless women. The study raises policy concerns about the welfare of Africa's single mothers and their children.     

Remission from Depression in the DSM: Moving from Rhetoric to Restoration

The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th Edition, the most recent edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, uses the term “remission” to describe the reduction of depressive symptoms. This paper argues that by categorizing someone who no longer has depressive symptoms as “in remission,” that person may feel indefinitely tied to his or her diagnosis. Considering the unfortunate stigma associated with mental illness, permanent linkage to diagnosis through records and professional memory may cause individuals to internalize pathology. In fact, the language of the diagnosis can affect self-perception in sensitive souls for a lifetime. As an implication for practice, we propose that cognitive and narrative therapy approaches, mood-memoirs, and use of metaphor present alternative uses of language that can reduce power imbalances between clinicians and clients, providing a bridge to healing.     

Revisiting gendered assumptions of practitioner power: An exploratory study examining the role of social media expertise

The purpose of this exploratory study was to expand upon previous literatures in public relations power, and fill the need for more scholarship regarding practitioners’ perceptions of social media work, power, and gender. Findings from a survey of PRSA members showed that there is a gendered difference in power perception between males and females regardless of their PR roles or level of experience, but social media expertise was perceived equally between both genders. We argue that while social media expertise may serve to reduce a gendered power divide in public relations, continued critical exploration of social media and gender inequality is necessary.     

Precarity and structural racism in Black youth encounters with police

Youth experience increased surveillance by and involuntary contact with police officers compared with other age groups. Studies that explore the experiences of youth during these encounters are scant and focus on youth with criminal histories. This research aims to explore the experiences of college-attending youth between 18 and 24 years old in two southern states. The study was designed and conducted according to the tenets of interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA). Twelve Black youth were recruited and interviewed between April 2015 and April 2016. Three superordinate themes (and subthemes) were identified: (1) negative feelings towards the police; (2) precarity of police encounters (subthemes: police as a threat to welfare; it could be me; steps to follow during police encounters; behavior is irrelevant) and; (3) police response is part of structural racism (subthemes: racism is everywhere; media contributes to racism). The importance of these findings for social work practice and research will be discussed.     

Piloting different approaches to personalised offender management in the English criminal justice system

Various approaches to personalisation are well-established in the UK social care sector and are now starting to ‘travel’ to other sectors. In this paper we report findings from an evaluation of a pilot to test elements of personalisation in the management of offenders in probation services within the English criminal justice system. Following a review of evidence from social care, three different approaches to personalised-practice were developed and tested on a small-scale in three separate sites. The evaluation finds that all three approaches were implemented reasonably successfully, but challenges were identified including that personalised approaches are more time-consuming, that staff need support to exercise professional discretion and that balancing greater choice with managing criminogenic risk requires new ways of conceptualising the relationship between case manager and service user. Overall, ‘deeper’ approaches to personalisation, such as co-production, will take time to emerge. This paper makes two important contributions to the debate on personalisation in public services. First, it addresses the question of how transferable the concept of personalisation is from the social care sector to other sectors in the UK, in this case the criminal justice system. Secondly, it outlines a methodology for developing and evaluating personalisation pilots, prior to a wider roll-out.     

ESTIMATING A PARAMETER WHEN IT IS KNOWN THAT THE PARAMETER EXCEEDS A GIVEN VALUE

In some statistical problems a degree of explicit, prior information is available about the value taken by the parameter of interest, θ say, although the information is much less than would be needed to place a prior density on the parameter's distribution. Often the prior information takes the form of a simple bound, ‘θ > θ₁ ’ or ‘θ < θ₁ ’, where θ₁ is determined by physical considerations or mathematical theory, such as positivity of a variance. A conventional approach to accommodating the requirement that θ > θ₁ is to replace an estimator, , of θ by the maximum of and θ₁. However, this technique is generally inadequate. For one thing, it does not respect the strictness of the inequality θ > θ₁ , which can be critical in interpreting results. For another, it produces an estimator that does not respond in a natural way to perturbations of the data. In this paper we suggest an alternative approach, in which bootstrap aggregation, or bagging, is used to overcome these difficulties. Bagging gives estimators that, when subjected to the constraint θ > θ₁ , strictly exceed θ₁ except in extreme settings in which the empirical evidence strongly contradicts the constraint. Bagging also reduces estimator variability in the important case for which is close to θ₁, and more generally produces estimators that respect the constraint in a smooth, realistic fashion.