Diffusion, cohort change, and social patterns of smoking()

In noting that common explanations of smoking cannot account for both its current inverse relationship with SES and the shift over time toward greater concentration among low SES groups, this paper presents an explanation based on diffusion and status distinctions. The explanation predicts that, as cigarette diffusion proceeds and fashions change, the social determinants of smoking will shift across cohorts, such that initially positive relationships between pre-adult components of socioeconomic status and smoking in early cohorts become negative in later cohorts. Tests using historical, cohort-linked aggregate data on cigarette diffusion, and individual-level data from the General Social Surveys covering the years from 1978 to 1994 and cohorts from 1889 to 1976 largely support the predictions. In comparing older to newer cohorts, the results show correspondence between the stage of cigarette diffusion and the direction and strength of the relationships of education, parental status, urban residence, and gender with cigarette smoking.     

Socioeconomic status, smoking, and health: a test of competing theories of cumulative advantage

Although both low socioeconomic status and cigarette smoking increase health problems and mortality, their possible combined or interactive influence is less clear On one hand, the health of low status groups may be harmed least by unhealthy behavior such as smoking because, given the substantial health risks produced by limited resources, they have less to lose from damaging lifestyles. On the other hand, the health of low status groups may be harmed most by smoking because lifestyle choices exacerbate the health problems created by deprived material conditions. Alternatively, the harm of low status and smoking may accumulate additively rather than multiplicatively. We test these arguments with data from the 1990 U.S. National Health Interview Survey, and with measures of morbidity and mortality. For ascribed statuses such as gender, race, and ethnicity, and for the outcome measure of mortality, the results favor the additive argument, whereas for achieved status and morbidity, the results support the vulnerability hypothesis--that smoking inflicts greater harm among disadvantaged groups.     

Declining sex differences in mortality from lung cancer in high-income nations

After decades of widening, the difference in mortality from lung cancer between men and women has begun to narrow in recent years. Recognizing that the increase in smoking among women relative to men is the proximate cause of the changing sex difference in rates of lung cancer, I analyzed two approaches to identify the more distant sources of the changes. A gender-equality argument suggests that the difference is related to the more general equalization of women's and men's work and family roles, which also encourages the adoption of harmful behaviors such as smoking by women. An alternative explanation suggests that the convergence in mortality from lung cancer among men and women is the byproduct of a lag in the adoption, diffusion, and abatement of smoking by women. Using mortality data on 21 nations from 1955 to 1996, an analysis of logged rates of men's and women's lung cancer mortality and the logged ratio of the rates demonstrated little relationship between the sex difference and gender equality. However, I found a strong and consistent relationship between the sex difference and the stage of diffusion of the use of cigarettes.     

Mortality Attributable to Cigarette Smoking in the United States

Cigarette smoking is an especially pernicious behavior because of its high prevalence and mortality risk. We use the powerful methodology of life tables with covariates and employ the National Health Interview Survey‐Multiple Cause of Death file to illuminate the interrelationships of smoking with other risk factors and the combined influences of smoking prevalence and population size on mortality attributable to smoking. We find that the relationship between smoking and mortality is only modestly affected by controlling for other risk factors. Excess deaths attributable to smoking among adults in the United States in the year 2000 were as high as 340,000. Better knowledge of the prevalence and mortality risk associated with different cigarette smoking statuses can enhance the future health and longevity prospects of the population.     

Indicators and models of changes in the American occupational system, 1947–73

This paper extends earlier conceptual and empirical work by Bell, Lebergott, and Moore on changes in the American occupational system in the post-World War II period. After updating and extending several time series of occupational indicators used by these authors and adding some others as well, the authors specify and estimate a number of dynamic structural-equation models to explain changes in the occupational system as indexed by the social indicators. These equations indicate: (1) that Bell's thesis about a shift from a production of goods orientation to a performance of services orientation in post-war American society needs to be qualified; (2) that the shift is due more to increased productivity in argriculture rather than in industry; (3) that increased bureaucratization of employment results, in part, from the shift out of agriculture and other post-war trends in the technological and organizational context of the work environment; and (4) that societal investments in military technology and in scientific research and development have had an important impact upon the occupational system in terms of shifting upwards the distribution of occupations with respect to prestige. In each of the topics analyzed, the authors make suggestions for developing additional indicators and for refining the structural equations. In addition, the potential of these equations for social forecasting is considered.     

Cohort change and the diffusion of environmental concern: a cross-national analysis

This study explores value change across cohorts for a multinational population sample. Employing a diffusion-of-innovations approach, we combine competing theories predicting the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and environmentalism: post-materialism and affluence theories, and global environmentalism theory. The diffusion argument suggests that high-SES groups first adopt pro-environmental views, but as time passes by, environmentalism diffuses to lower-SES groups. We test the diffusion argument using a sample of 18 countries for two waves (years 1993 and 2000) from the International Social Survey Project. Cross-classified multilevel modeling allows us to identify a nonlinear interaction between cohort and education, our core measure of SES, in predicting environmental concern, while controlling for age and period. We find support for the diffusion argument and demonstrate that the positive effect of education on environmental concern first increases among older cohorts and then starts to level off until a bend point is reached for individuals born around 1940 and becomes progressively weaker for younger cohorts.