Consumption of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) Contaminated Beef and the Risk of Variant Creutzfeldt‐Jakob Disease

To date, the variant Creutzfeldt‐Jakob disease (vCJD) risk assessments that have been performed have primarily focused on predicting future vCJD cases in the United Kingdom, which underwent a bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic between 1980 and 1996. Surveillance of potential BSE cases was also used to assess vCJD risk, especially in other BSE‐prevalent EU countries. However, little is known about the vCJD risk for uninfected individuals who accidentally consume BSE‐contaminated meat products in or imported from a country with prevalent BSE. In this article, taking into account the biological mechanism of abnormal prion PrP^res aggregation in the brain, the probability of exposure, and the expected amount of ingested infectivity, we establish a stochastic mean exponential growth model of lifetime exposure through dietary intake. Given the findings that BSE agents behave similarly in humans and macaques, we obtained parameter estimates from experimental macaque data. We then estimated the accumulation of abnormal prions to assess lifetime risk of developing clinical signs of vCJD. Based on the observed number of vCJD cases and the estimated number of exposed individuals during the BSE epidemic period from 1980 to 1996 in the United Kingdom, an exposure threshold hypothesis is proposed. Given the age‐specific risk of infection, the hypothesis explains the observations very well from an extreme‐value distribution fitting of the estimated BSE infectivity exposure. The current BSE statistics in the United Kingdom are provided as an example.     

京津冀地区私营经济发展研究——与东南沿海部分省市的对比分析

改革开放以来．中国经济迅猛发展．私营经济在国民经济中所占比重越来越大．对国民经济发展作出了巨大贡献。20世纪八九十年代．私营经济作为中国东南沿海省市经济发展的源动力．带动了中国经济的飞速发展．其中东南沿海的上海、浙江、江苏和广东是私营经济最为活跃的地方。     

大学生的恋爱认识误区及思考

恋爱是每个在校大学生必须面临的问题。随着时代的变化和发展,大学生思想观念多元化趋势日益明显。由于个人经历方面的差别,不同的大学生对恋爱有不同的认识。本文拟就大学生恋爱问题进行分析和阐述。     

从印度走进中国——敦煌变文中的帝释

帝释从印度走进中国,成为中国民众信奉的神祇,这是佛教在中国民间广泛传播的背景下实现的,它体现了中国文化接纳外来文化的包容性格,敦煌变文中的帝释形象便集中显示了这种包容性.     

记忆中的朝阳人

一《辽海名人辞典》是辽宁文化史上的第一部名人辞典,所选人物为先秦至2011年之前去世的辽宁省历史名人,共2800余人,其中属朝阳者十之一二,这在辽宁十四个市地中,当属前列.尤其是收入《辽海名人辞典》中的190位唐前名人中就有46位是朝阳人.由此可见,朝阳在辽海地区前期文明中的重要位置.     

Multiple hypothesis test for parameter constancy based on recursive residuals

This article presents a multiple hypothesis test procedure that combines two well known tests for structural change in the linear regression model, the CUSUM test and the recursive t test. The CUSUM test is run through the sequence of recursive residuals as usual; if the CUSUM plot does not violate the critical lines, one more step is taken to perform the t test for hypothesis of zero mean based on all recursive residuals. The asymptotic size of this multiple hypothesis test is derived; power simulation results suggest that it outperforms the traditional CUSUM test and complements other tests that are currently stressed in econometrics.     

矢志求索：康天刚与唐三藏民族文化精神之比较

现代小说《乡亲——康天刚》中的康天刚闯关东挖“老山参”与古典小说《西游记》中的唐三藏西天取经的人生境遇,鲜明生动地体现了中华民族的真实境遇,同时也体现了中华民族矢志求索的心声,即个体意志的自我满足与探索和追求人类幸福的文化精神。     

试论股东权益稀释会计

现行的财务会计不能向股东提供完整的权益稀释信息。为了弥补这一缺陷 ,本文提出了建立股东权益稀释会计的构想 ,并结合国外在股东权益稀释会计方面的研究成果 ,论证其必要性及可行性