Random Weighted Bootstrap Method for Recurrent Events with Informative Censoring

Using the data from the AIDS Link to Intravenous Experiences cohort study as an example, an informative censoring model was used to characterize the repeated hospitalization process of a group of patients. Under the informative censoring assumption, the estimators of the baseline rate function and the regression parameters were shown to be related to a latent variable. Hence, it becomes impractical to directly estimate the unknown quantities in the moments of the estimators for the bandwidth selection of a smoothing estimator and the construction of confidence intervals, which are respectively based on the asymptotic mean squared errors and the asymptotic distributions of the estimators. To overcome these difficulties, we develop a random weighted bootstrap procedure to select appropriate bandwidths and to construct approximated confidence intervals. One can see that our method is simple and faster to implement from a practical point of view, and is at least as accurate as other bootstrap methods. In this article, it is shown that the proposed method is useful through the performance of a Monte Carlo simulation. An application of our procedure is also illustrated by a recurrent event sample of intravenous drug users for inpatient cares over time.     

MODEL-ASSISTED HIGHER-ORDER CALIBRATION OF ESTIMATORS OF VARIANCE

In survey sampling, interest often centres on inference for the population total using information about an auxiliary variable. The variance of the estimator used plays a key role in such inference. This study develops a new set of higher‐order constraints for the calibration of estimators of variance for various estimators of the population total. The proposed strategy requires an appropriate model for describing the relationship between the response and auxiliary variable, and the variance of the auxiliary variable. It is therefore referred to as a model‐assisted approach. Several new estimators of variance, including the higher‐order calibration estimators of the variance of the ratio and regression estimators suggested by Singh, Horn & Yu and Sitter & Wu are special cases of the proposed technique. The paper presents and discusses the results of an empirical study to compare the performance of the proposed estimators and existing counterparts.     

Examining Sex Differences in the Use of Direct and Indirect Aggression

Direct and indirect aggressive behaviors were studied using surveys and interviews of students in two public schools. The variables of “sex-of-aggressor” and “sex-of-target” were included. Claims in previous research that girls engage in far more indirect aggression than boys are not supported. Further, it was found that girls are more likely to target the opposite sex with direct aggression than boys. This suggests more gender fluidity in the use of aggression by girls and adds to a growing body of research that dispels the notion that direct and indirect aggression can be neatly sorted into male and female categories of behavior.

Choice and circumstance: Qualitative insights into contemporary childlessness in Australia

Using data from in-depth interviews with 115 women, men and couples in eastern Australia for whom family formation was a recent, current or imminent future issue, this article explores contemporary childlessness among those physically able to have children. It differentiates between those childless by choice and by circumstance, and among other themes highlights (i) the role preservation of lifestyle appears to play as a motive for deliberate childlessness following development of a life course through early adulthood that both generates lifestyle aspirations and often places parenthood on the backburner until after age 30, and (ii) the roles difficulty forming suitable relationships, women’s desire for meaningful careers, and male involvement in family formation decisions play in bringing about childlessness by circumstance.     

Recent Life Expectancy Divergence in Baltic Countries

Until the end of the 1990s, mortality patterns and trends in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were remarkably similar. However, from the year 2000 onwards, life expectancy trends in the three countries started to diverge. In particular, sustainable progress in Estonia over the period 2000–2007 contrasts with stagnation in Latvia, and even worsening trends in Lithuania. These contradictory changes seem to be mainly explained by contrasting dynamics in mortality from cardiovascular diseases, external causes of death and digestive system diseases. Whereas cardiovascular and external-cause mortality declined in Estonia and Latvia, worsening or stagnation of mortality from these causes of death was observed in Lithuania. The negative mortality changes in Lithuania were also reinforced by a striking increase in mortality from alcohol-related digestive system diseases. The findings suggest that the divergence in health trends between the three countries may be attributable to their varying degrees of success in implementing structural health care reforms and specific health policy measures. By contrast, the very recent improvement (since 2008) is parallel in the three countries and is largely because of the introduction of rather similar anti-alcohol measures.     

The Allocation of Housework: Extending the Gender Display Approach

The current study attempts a simultaneous testing of economic models, the gender display perspective, and gender-deviance neutralization hypothesis that attempt to explain present housework arrangements between men and women. The study uses fixed effects models that can produce more robust coefficients than the standard regression models generally used in cross-sectional designs. The findings in the study reveal the inadequacy of economic models and the gender display theory to account for men’s housework behavior. The study introduces the marital contract hypothesis as an alternative theoretical framework for explaining men’s housework behavior. According to the study, what is crucial for achieving housework parity is changes in women’s gender related attitudes and their economic and labor market standing and orientation to paid work. The study suggests that attempting to change men’s gender beliefs can do little to achieve the goal of housework parity.     

Eminent Social Scientists’ Views on Immigration Issues: 1985 and 2006

Following up on a research note by Stephen Moore published in 1985, this article compares the results of the survey conducted in 1985 against one carried out in 2006 on the views of eminent social scientists (economists, political scientists, psychologists, sociologists, historians and anthropologists) on immigration issues. Specifically, the surveys report on whether the respondents are likely to favor an increase in the number of immigrants who are allowed into the United States and other issues such as whether immigrants improve the economy.

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Surviving the Holocaust: Socio-demographic Differences Among Amsterdam Jews

This study determined the victimisation rate among Amsterdam Jews and socio-demographic differences in surviving the Holocaust. After linking a registration list of over 77,000 Jewish inhabitants in 1941 to post-war lists of Jewish victims and survivors, the victimisation rate lies between 74.3 and 75.3 %. Differences in survival chances and risk of being killed are examined by using multivariable logistic and Cox regression analyses. While male Jews had a reduced risk of death, in the end their survival chances hardly differed from females. Though Jews aged 6–14 and 31–50 initially had a lower risk of death, in the end compared with Jews aged 15–30 they had lower survival chances, just as Jews aged 50+. For Jews aged 0–5, it was the other way around. Immigrants showed better survival chances than native Jews. German Jews showed better survival chances than Dutch Jews, but Polish and other Jewish nationals showed highest survival chances. Jews who had abandoned Judaism had better survival chances than Jews belonging to an Israelite congregation. Divorced, widowed and unmarried adult Jews had better survival chances than married Jews and their children; Jews married to non-Jews, however, had one of the highest survival chances. Jews in the two highest social classes had better survival chances than jobless Jews. These findings indicate that survival was not random but related to socio-demographic characteristics. This sheds light on demographic consequences of conflict and violence: Nazi persecution reduced the Amsterdam Jewish community drastically, and socio-demographic differences in survival impacted the post-war Jewish population structure.     

Quantifying Economic Dependency

In this paper we compare several types of economic dependency ratios for a selection of European countries. These dependency ratios take into account not only the demographic structure of the population, but also the differences in age-specific economic behaviour such as labour market activity, income and consumption as well as age-specific public transfers. In selected simulations where we combine patterns of age-specific economic behaviour and transfers with population projections, we show that in all countries population ageing would lead to a pronounced increase in dependency ratios if present age-specific patterns were not to change. Our analysis of cross-country differences in economic dependency demonstrates that these differences are driven by both differences in age-specific economic behaviour and in the age composition of the populations. The choice of which dependency ratio to use in a specific policy context is determined by the nature of the question to be answered. The comparison of our various dependency ratios across countries gives insights into which strategies might be effective in mitigating the expected increase in economic dependency due to demographic change.